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Türkiye’s October 2026 confidence data show a split across major service-producing sectors: services confidence declined to 109.2, while retail-trade confidence rose to 112.5 and construction edged up to 83.3. Services and retail therefore remained above TÜİK’s 100-point optimism threshold, but construction stayed in pessimistic territory despite its monthly improvement.
The divergence matters because the headline index combines recent business conditions with expectations. Retail’s stronger recent sales lifted its overall reading even as its three-month outlook weakened; services softened across all measured components; and construction improved only marginally from a low base.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →What do Türkiye’s October confidence figures show?
The October release from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) records three different directions. Services confidence fell 2.4% month on month, from 111.9 in September to 109.2. Retail-trade confidence increased 1.1%, from 111.3 to 112.5. Construction confidence rose 0.4%, from 83.0 to 83.3.
| Sector | October 2026 index | Monthly change | Position against 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | 109.2 | -2.4% | Optimistic |
| Retail trade | 112.5 | +1.1% | Optimistic |
| Construction | 83.3 | +0.4% | Pessimistic |
TÜİK defines confidence indices on a 0-to-200 scale. A result above 100 indicates an optimistic outlook, while a result below 100 indicates a pessimistic one. A monthly increase therefore does not automatically mean that a sector is optimistic: construction is the clearest example.
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Why did services confidence fall?
All three services components weakened in October, giving the decline a broad base rather than tying it to one isolated measure.
Recent business situation
The business-situation index for the past three months fell 3.1% to 106.8. Managers still assessed recent conditions above the 100 threshold, but their assessment was less positive than in September.
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Recent demand and turnover
Demand-turnover for the past three months dropped 3.5% to 105.8. This points to softer reported recent demand and turnover alongside the weaker business-situation reading.
Near-term demand expectations
Demand-turnover expectations for the next three months declined 0.7% to 115.0. Expectations remained the strongest of the three services components, yet they also moved lower, so October’s services result reflects simultaneous softening in recent experience and the forward signal.
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What changed in retail trade?
Retail confidence rose to 112.5 because recent activity improved, although the expectations component weakened.
Recent activity strengthened
The business-activity and sales index for the past three months increased 6.2% to 121.5. That is the largest component movement reported for the three sectors in this release and indicates stronger recent sales-related activity from retailers.
Stock volumes moved higher
The current stock-volume index rose 1.2% to 92.5. Because this component remains below 100, its level does not represent an optimistic reading under TÜİK’s interpretation, even though it increased from September.
Forward expectations cooled
Expected business activity and sales over the next three months fell 3.4% to 123.6. Retail’s headline increase should therefore be read as a stronger recent-performance signal, not as uniformly improving sentiment across both current and future measures.
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Did construction sentiment become optimistic?
No. Construction confidence improved 0.4% to 83.3, but the level remains 16.7 points below TÜİK’s optimism threshold of 100.
Order books
Current overall order books increased 0.4% to 80.7. The rise indicates a slight month-on-month improvement in reported orders, while the absolute level remains well inside pessimistic territory.
Employment expectations
Total employment expectations for the next three months also rose 0.4%, reaching 85.9. This is an improvement in direction but still below 100, so the construction survey continues to signal caution about near-term conditions and hiring.
How should the three sectors be compared?
A useful comparison uses three tests: the month-on-month direction, the absolute position relative to 100, and whether the change comes from recent activity, current conditions or forward expectations.
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- Services: the index is optimistic in level but weakened across recent business conditions, recent demand-turnover and next-quarter demand expectations.
- Retail: the index is optimistic and rose because recent activity and sales strengthened, while the forward activity-and-sales expectation declined.
- Construction: the index improved slightly, but both the headline level and its reported order-book and employment-expectation components remain below 100.
This pattern is better described as cross-sector divergence than as a single economy-wide confidence trend. Retail’s recent activity is holding up, services managers became less positive on every surveyed dimension, and construction remains the weakest of the three by level.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How are these confidence indices compiled?
TÜİK’s services tendency survey asks managers about recent and current business conditions and their near-term expectations. The confidence indices are seasonally adjusted, range from 0 to 200, and use coverage based on NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Monthly data are available from 2011, allowing October 2026 to be viewed within a long-running series rather than as a standalone observation.
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The survey is intended for policymakers, central banks, market researchers, academic users, media and the public. Because it records managers’ assessments and expectations, it complements—rather than replaces—hard measures such as production, sales, employment and construction activity. A single monthly movement is consequently most useful when followed across subsequent releases and compared with those official outcome data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a higher confidence index mean output increased that month?
Not necessarily. The index is a survey-based measure of managers’ assessments and expectations, so it can improve before measured output rises or decline while production data are still firm. Confirming an activity change requires checking the relevant official output, sales or employment series.
Why can a sector’s index rise while one of its components falls?
The headline confidence measure combines several component balances. Stronger movement in one component, such as retail’s recent activity and sales reading, can outweigh a decline in another, such as its three-month expectations, producing a higher overall index.
How far back can October 2026 be compared?
TÜİK reports monthly services tendency data from 2011 onward. That history permits comparisons across earlier cycles, but analysts should keep the seasonal adjustment and the NACE Rev. 2 sector coverage consistent when constructing a long-term series.
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