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Polymarket, Kalshi and their founders have put at least $5 million into Republican and Democratic political groups during the 2026 election cycle, while also funding lobbying in Washington and state capitals. The spending is arriving as regulators fight over whether prediction-market contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling. More than one-third of the reported political money went to state-level organizations, and Congress is separately examining whether weak trading controls allowed insider trading. The result is a combined influence and compliance battle over who can offer event contracts in the United States and what safeguards those markets must provide.
How much are Polymarket and Kalshi spending on politics?
Reuters reported on October 22, 2026, that the two companies and their founders had donated at least $5 million combined to political groups during the 2026 cycle. About $2.7 million went to Republican recipients, with the remainder going to Democratic organizations. The total covers direct political giving and includes a previously unreported $1 million transfer by Polymarket’s operating company, Blockratize Inc., to House Majority Forward, a Democratic nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteA separate OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline counted at least $3 million in 2026 lobbying and campaign contributions by Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets. These figures are not necessarily contradictory: the $5 million Reuters figure describes the companies and founders’ political donations, while the OpenSecrets figure combines a different set of entities and spending categories.
| Reported measure | Amount or scope | Source and timing |
|---|---|---|
| Combined political giving by Kalshi, Polymarket and founders | At least $5 million; about $2.7 million to Republicans and the remainder to Democrats | Reuters, 2026 election cycle |
| Transfer from Polymarket operating company | $1 million to House Majority Forward | Reuters, reported October 22, 2026 |
| Industry lobbying and campaign contributions | At least $3 million | OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline, 2026 |
| Kalshi federal lobbying | Nearly $1 million | OpenSecrets, first half of 2026 |
Where is the money going, and why are states a priority?
State-level political organizations received more than one-third of the combined donations identified by Reuters. The recipients include groups supporting candidates for governor, attorney general and state legislatures—officials who can influence gambling enforcement, licensing, taxation and consumer-protection policy.
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OpenSecrets found that Kalshi gave more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the first half of 2026, it also gave $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.
The lobbying footprint is similarly state-focused. Kalshi had hired at least one lobbyist in 41 states, with California and New York receiving particular attention. That reach matters because state attorneys general and lawmakers are challenging prediction-market contracts tied to sports and elections, even as the companies argue that federal derivatives law governs them.
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Are prediction markets gambling or federally regulated financial markets?
The central dispute is over legal classification and jurisdiction. Kalshi and Polymarket characterize event contracts as financial instruments traded on markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). State officials counter that the contracts function like wagers and therefore should comply with state gambling rules, taxes and consumer protections.
What the CFTC argues
In an April 28, 2026 release, the CFTC said Congress gave it exclusive jurisdiction over covered derivative products, including event contracts traded on designated contract markets. The agency said it sued Wisconsin after Wisconsin sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase, which the CFTC described as CFTC-regulated prediction markets. The agency also said it had sued or filed related actions involving New York, Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois.
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CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said, “States cannot circumvent the clear directive of Congress.” The federal position is that state attempts to apply gambling law are preempted when the products fall within the CFTC’s statutory authority.
What states argue
State lawmakers and attorneys general dispute that reading. They say the platforms are using financial-market labels to avoid state gambling oversight, tax obligations and safeguards for consumers. The legal question is therefore not only whether a particular contract is a derivative or a wager, but also which level of government has authority to set the rules.
Observers cited by Stateline expect the litigation could eventually reach the Supreme Court, although no outcome or timetable is established. Until courts resolve the conflict, companies, regulators and users face different interpretations of the same event-contract products.
What is Congress investigating about Polymarket and Kalshi insider trading?
On May 22, 2026, House Oversight Chairman James Comer opened an investigation into possible insider trading on both platforms. The committee requested records on identity verification for domestic and foreign users, geographic restrictions and systems designed to detect anomalous or suspicious trades.
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Incidents cited by the committee
- A New York Times investigation cited more than 80 Polymarket bets placed at suspicious times, including wagers made hours before undisclosed U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran.
- Gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford reportedly placed a $200 wager on his own race on Kalshi.
- An April 24, 2026 indictment alleged that Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information to place wagers that generated more than $409,000 in profits.
These examples are allegations or reported incidents cited in the committee’s materials. They do not establish that every platform, market or user engaged in insider trading. The investigation is testing whether existing controls can prevent people with confidential information—or participants barred by location or identity rules—from trading on that information.
Comer said the “growing pattern of insider trading activity” might require congressional action. The requested records could help lawmakers assess whether current verification, geolocation and surveillance systems are adequate or whether new statutory standards are needed.
How are the companies and founders distributing their political support?
The giving is bipartisan, but it is not evenly distributed across every donor. Reuters reported that Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Polymarket together directed roughly $1.3 million to Republican committees and candidates while also supporting Democratic groups. Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara had given at least $1 million by early October, with about 72% going to Republican causes and candidates.
Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said the company supports candidates on both sides of the aisle “like many U.S. regulated companies.” Kalshi’s head of federal government relations, John Bivona, said fuller disclosures would show donations roughly evenly divided between parties and argued that rules allowing prediction markets to grow safely are not a partisan issue.
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University of Rochester political-science professor David Primo described the industry as one “figuring out the regulations on the fly.” His explanation is that elected officials will write the rules, so companies have an incentive to engage them; that is an expert interpretation of the spending rather than an admission by either company.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What happens next for prediction-market regulation?
Three tracks are now moving at once: federal-versus-state litigation, political lobbying and congressional oversight. Court rulings will determine whether states can restrict or tax contracts that the CFTC treats as federally governed derivatives. Political organizations receiving donations will influence governors, attorneys general and legislators who make enforcement and licensing decisions. The House Oversight inquiry could lead to hearings, new disclosure requirements, tighter identity and location checks, or limits on trading by officials and people with privileged information.
The unresolved issue is broader than whether a single contract is legal. Policymakers must decide who regulates these markets, how sports and election contracts should be classified, what consumer protections apply, and how platforms should detect trading based on confidential information. Until those questions are settled, the companies’ expanding political spending and their compliance systems will remain under scrutiny.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do the reported $5 million and $3 million totals differ?
They measure different things. Reuters counted at least $5 million in political donations by Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders, while the OpenSecrets figure reported by Stateline counted at least $3 million in lobbying and campaign contributions by the companies plus the Coalition for Prediction Markets.
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Does bipartisan giving mean Polymarket and Kalshi split donations evenly?
No. The overall totals include money for both parties, but Reuters reported that Kalshi’s founders directed about 72% of their disclosed giving to Republican causes. Polymarket and CEO Shayne Coplan together gave roughly $1.3 million to Republican committees and candidates while also supporting Democratic groups.
Is donating to political groups itself evidence of wrongdoing?
The reports describe the donations and lobbying as part of a regulatory influence campaign; they do not establish that the contributions were illegal. The separate legal scrutiny concerns the status of event contracts and allegations that confidential information was used in trading.
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Could the prediction-market lawsuits reach the Supreme Court?
Observers quoted by Stateline expect the federal-versus-state jurisdiction fight could eventually reach the Supreme Court. That is a forecast, not a scheduled case or a prediction of how the justices would rule.
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