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Hindustan Zinc shares opened about 4% higher at ₹559.85 on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, after the company reported a 142% year-over-year jump in second-quarter net profit. The stock did not hold that gain: it fell to an intraday low of ₹520.60 and closed at ₹525, down 2.5% from the previous close of ₹538.40.
Jefferies kept its Buy rating but reduced its target price from ₹750 to ₹650. The reported reason was not a weak September quarter. Instead, Jefferies lowered its assumptions for future silver prices, cut its FY28 and FY29 earnings estimates, and flagged silver volatility and higher interest rates as near-term risks.
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Hindustan Zinc’s October 19, 2026 release reported sharply higher profit, revenue and production for the quarter ended September 2026.
| Measure | Q2 FY27 result | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated net profit | ₹6,412 crore | Up 142% |
| Revenue from operations | ₹15,093 crore | Up 77% |
| Mined-metal production | 271 KT | Up 5% |
| Refined-metal production | 264 KT | Up 7% |
| Silver production | 173 tonnes | Up 20% |
| Zinc cost of production, excluding royalty | $703 per tonne | Down 29% |
The company attributed the revenue increase to higher metal prices, greater metal production, stronger by-product realisations and a stronger dollar. Lower zinc production costs also supported profitability.
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Hindustan Zinc’s release describes quarterly EBITDA as ₹9,285 crore with a 62% margin, but its financial-summary table lists EBITDA as ₹9,258 crore. Because the two figures have not been reconciled publicly in the material available for this report, the precise EBITDA amount should be treated cautiously.
Why did Jefferies cut the target price despite the strong quarter?
A target price is based on expected future earnings and valuation, whereas quarterly profit describes a period that has already ended. Jefferies reportedly said September-quarter EBITDA was 8% above its estimate, helped by lead-concentrate sales and lower production costs. Its target cut therefore reflects a more cautious outlook rather than a claim that Q2 missed expectations.
According to reports in The Economic Times and Business Standard, Jefferies reduced its target from ₹750 to ₹650 while retaining Buy. The brokerage raised its FY27 earnings-per-share estimate by 5%, but cut FY28 and FY29 estimates by 4% because of lower silver-price assumptions.
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Silver assumptions became more conservative
Jefferies was reported to be using a silver-price assumption of $50 for the balance of FY27 and for FY28 and FY29, versus a spot price of about $58 at the time of the report. Those are brokerage assumptions for modelling purposes, not guaranteed prices or current market quotations.
Silver is particularly important to Hindustan Zinc because the company’s silver output increased 20% year over year to 173 tonnes. A lower assumed silver price can reduce expected revenue and profit even when zinc and lead operations perform well.
Jefferies nevertheless described its medium-term view on silver as constructive. The Economic Times reproduced the brokerage’s statement: “Our global analysts remain constructive on silver over medium term, as mounting fiscal pressures and inflation risks support precious metals.” That medium-term view can coexist with lower near-term modelling assumptions.
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Interest rates add a near-term valuation risk
The reported Jefferies rationale also cited the possibility that higher interest rates could weigh on Hindustan Zinc shares in the near term. Higher rates can make equities less attractive relative to fixed-income assets and reduce the valuation investors are willing to pay for future cash flows. This risk affects the share-price target even if operating results remain strong.
What exactly happened to the share price?
The often-quoted 4% rise describes the opening move only. Hindustan Zinc opened at ₹559.85, compared with a previous close of ₹538.40, which was approximately 4% higher. Selling pressure later took the stock to ₹520.60 before it finished at ₹525.
| Point in the session | Price | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Previous close | ₹538.40 | Reference price |
| Opening price, October 21, 2026 | ₹559.85 | About 4% above the previous close |
| Intraday low | ₹520.60 | Reversal from the opening gain |
| Closing price | ₹525 | Down 2.5% for the session |
Readers should therefore distinguish an opening reaction from a full-session return. Saying the shares “jumped 4%” without specifying the time of measurement incorrectly suggests that investors who held through the close made a gain that day.
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How should investors read the Buy rating and ₹650 target together?
A rating and a target price answer different questions. The Buy rating expresses Jefferies’ relative view on the shares, while ₹650 is its reported estimate of where the stock could trade over the brokerage’s target horizon under its assumptions.
- Rating: Jefferies retained Buy.
- Target: Reduced from ₹750 to ₹650.
- FY27 estimate: EPS raised 5%.
- FY28–FY29 estimates: EPS reduced 4%.
- Main sensitivity: Future silver prices and their volatility.
- Additional near-term risk: Higher interest rates.
The combination signals that Jefferies sees potential upside relative to its valuation framework, but less than it previously expected. It is not a promise that the stock will reach ₹650, and the commodity assumptions can change quickly.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should investors watch after the Q2 result?
- Silver prices: Sustained prices above or below the brokerage’s $50 assumptions would change the earnings outlook.
- Silver volumes: Production reached 173 tonnes in Q2; future output and by-product realisations will affect the benefit from silver.
- Zinc and lead prices: Jefferies reportedly assumed lead at $1,850–$1,875 for the relevant periods, broadly in line with spot near $1,850 at the time.
- Costs: The reported $703-per-tonne zinc cost excluding royalty was 29% lower year over year. Investors will want to know whether that improvement persists.
- Rates and valuation: Changes in interest-rate expectations can move the share price independently of quarterly production.
- Estimate revisions: Future brokerage changes to FY28 and FY29 earnings may matter more than the already reported Q2 numbers.
The Jefferies rationale and forecasts are reported by news organisations; the brokerage’s original research note was not independently reviewed for this article. Targets and commodity assumptions are time-sensitive estimates, not current market prices or guarantees.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Did Hindustan Zinc shares actually finish 4% higher after the results?
No. The 4% figure refers to the opening price of ₹559.85 on October 21, 2026, versus a previous close of ₹538.40. The shares later closed at ₹525, a 2.5% decline for that session.
What silver price did Jefferies use in its revised model?
Reports said Jefferies assumed silver at $50 for the rest of FY27 and for FY28 and FY29, compared with roughly $58 spot when the report was published. That was a modelling assumption at the time, not a live quote or forecast certainty.
Why can a brokerage raise one year’s EPS estimate and cut later years’ estimates?
FY27 includes the benefit of the stronger reported quarter and near-term operating conditions. FY28 and FY29 depend more heavily on longer-term commodity-price assumptions, so lower assumed silver prices can reduce those later estimates even after a good Q2.
What was Hindustan Zinc’s silver production in Q2 FY27?
The company reported 173 tonnes of silver production, up 20% year over year. Silver is a by-product and an important source of earnings sensitivity alongside zinc and lead.
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