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Dangote Cement (NGX: DANGCEM) has a broadly positive but tightly valued outlook. A six-analyst aggregator consensus is Buy, with an average 12-month target of about ₦1,229 (range ₦1,078–₦1,360). That average is only about 0.57% above StockAnalysis’ ₦1,222.10 close on 26 October 2026. S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates on the same service point to 2026 revenue of roughly ₦5.17 trillion and EPS of ₦81.84, rising to ₦5.97 trillion and ₦97.23 in 2027. A dated Cordros scenario is less optimistic: HOLD, a ₦1,041.59 target and 2026E EPS of ₦78.69 because of higher fuel, haulage, raw-material and tax costs.
What are the latest Dangote Cement estimates for DANGCEM?
The latest complete company reporting is for the six months ended 30 June 2026, while the forward numbers are analyst estimates rather than reported results. The central market-data view is constructive, but the small gap between the average target and the latest quoted price means the Buy label does not imply a large, clearly available upside at that timestamp.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware match| Measure | Estimate or market view | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst consensus | Buy | Six analysts; aggregator data |
| 12-month target average | About ₦1,229 | Six-analyst aggregator average |
| Target range | ₦1,078–₦1,360 | Same aggregator; outcomes span below and above the quoted price |
| FY2026 revenue | About ₦5.17 trillion | S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced estimate |
| FY2026 EPS | ₦81.84 | S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced estimate |
| FY2027 revenue | About ₦5.97 trillion | S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced estimate |
| FY2027 EPS | ₦97.23 | S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced estimate |
Investing.com displays a closely matching six-analyst Buy view, with a ₦1,229.10 average target and bounds of ₦1,077.80–₦1,359.79. Those figures should be treated as a snapshot: analyst coverage, prices and estimates can change without the company publishing a new result.
How strong was Dangote Cement’s H1 2026 performance?
H1 2026 provides a strong earnings base for the full-year forecasts. Group revenue rose 21.4% year on year to ₦2,513.9 billion, EBITDA increased 25.8% to ₦1,188.3 billion, and the EBITDA margin was 47.3%. Profit after tax reached ₦638.5 billion, equivalent to EPS of ₦38.22.
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- Group cement volumes were 14.94 million tonnes.
- Nigerian exports increased 62.3% to 1.1 million tonnes.
- The group ended June with net cash of ₦215.2 billion, meaning cash exceeded total debt.
The first-quarter presentation had already reported revenue of ₦1,198.0 billion, EBITDA of ₦567.1 billion, PAT of ₦321.1 billion and EPS of ₦19.14. The half-year figures therefore show that the second quarter added materially to the year-to-date result rather than reversing the opening-quarter trend. Chief executive Arvind Pathak said the first half reflected “the strong momentum we have continued to build since the start of the year.”
What do the FY2026 and FY2027 forecasts imply?
The consensus path assumes that the 2026 operating momentum extends through the full year and that earnings continue growing in 2027. FY2025 reported revenue was ₦4.31 trillion and EPS was ₦59.86 on the aggregator’s data, compared with the estimates below.
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| Fiscal year | Revenue | EPS | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | ₦4.31 trillion | ₦59.86 | Reported comparison year on aggregator data |
| FY2026 | About ₦5.17 trillion | ₦81.84 | Estimate; S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced |
| FY2027 | About ₦5.97 trillion | ₦97.23 | Estimate; S&P Global Market Intelligence-sourced |
These are full-year figures. H1 EPS of ₦38.22 is already reported, so the FY2026 estimate includes actual first-half earnings plus an estimate for the remaining period; it is not a second-half forecast alone.
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Why does Cordros publish a lower DANGCEM target?
Cordros’ 14 August 2026 update uses a more conservative margin and tax case. It raised its 2026 revenue-growth assumption to 20.6% but cut the EBITDA-margin assumption to 46.5%, raised the effective tax-rate assumption to 34.0%, reduced EPS from ₦82.94 to ₦78.69 and lowered its target from ₦1,077.80 to ₦1,041.59. Its rating remained HOLD.
| Scenario | 2026E revenue assumption | 2026E EBITDA margin | 2026E EPS | Target | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregator consensus | About ₦5.17 trillion | Not stated | ₦81.84 | About ₦1,229 average | Buy |
| Cordros, 14 August 2026 | 20.6% growth assumption | 46.5% | ₦78.69 | ₦1,041.59 | HOLD |
Cordros also forecast 2026E DPS of ₦70.00. Its downgrade rationale was higher raw-material and haulage costs, oil-linked cost pressure and the 34.0% effective tax rate. Comparing the two views requires keeping their dates and assumptions separate; one is an aggregator consensus snapshot and the other is a dated broker model.
What price should be used when assessing upside?
Use a timestamped price and do not mix dates. StockAnalysis showed ₦1,222.10 at the 26 October 2026 close, while Dangote Cement’s investor page showed ₦1,111.00 as of 23 October 2026. The consensus average of about ₦1,229 implies roughly 0.57% upside only when compared with the 26 October close; applying it to the 23 October display would be a different calculation and should be labelled as such.
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Which operations are driving the estimates?
Nigeria remains the earnings anchor. In H1 2026, Nigerian volumes grew 8.3%, revenue rose 25.2% and EBITDA increased 28.4%. Pan-African volumes grew faster, at 19.0%, but Pan-African EBITDA was broadly flat, showing why group volume growth does not automatically translate into equal profit growth across every market.
Capacity expansion
The 6 million-tonne-per-annum Itori plant was described as being at an advanced construction and commissioning stage, with completion targeted before the end of 2026. Management has stated a longer-term ambition to reach 80 Mta of installed capacity by 2030, compared with 55.0 Mta across Africa in current company disclosures. New capacity can support volume growth, but its financial effect depends on commissioning, utilization, pricing and distribution costs.
Country mix
The H1 review recorded weak volume in Cameroon and Ghana, while Ethiopia, Senegal, Tanzania and Côte d’Ivoire were stronger. Regional results should therefore be assessed country by country rather than inferred from Nigerian performance alone.
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What could make the estimates miss?
The principal downside variables are costs, tax, currency, financing conditions and uneven demand. Oil, fuel and haulage prices can compress margins even when selling prices and volumes rise. A higher effective tax rate reduces the portion of operating profit that reaches net income and EPS. Currency movements and financing conditions can also alter reported costs, debt service and the value of earnings from different African markets.
- Cost inflation: fuel, oil-linked inputs, raw materials and transport can push EBITDA below the assumed margin.
- Tax: Cordros’ 34.0% effective-rate assumption is a specific example of how tax can lower EPS without a proportional fall in revenue.
- Regional demand: weak performance in an individual country can offset growth elsewhere.
- Execution: delays or slower ramp-up at Itori would postpone the benefit of added capacity.
- Market timing: a target price is a model output, not a guaranteed trading level, and the displayed share price can move before estimates are revised.
How should investors read the dividend estimates?
Dangote Cement’s investor materials cite a proposed ₦45 dividend for FY2025, while Cordros’ model forecasts 2026E DPS of ₦70. The proposed FY2025 amount is a company-disclosed payout proposal; the ₦70 figure is a broker estimate for a later year, so they are not interchangeable measures of a declared dividend. Dividend decisions still require the company’s formal announcement and approval process.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What is the practical conclusion for DANGCEM?
DANGCEM combines strong H1 execution, positive consensus earnings growth and a net-cash balance with a valuation that leaves little room for error at the 26 October quoted price. The most useful approach is to monitor whether Nigerian growth remains strong, Pan-African margins improve, Itori commissions on schedule and fuel, tax and currency pressures stay near the assumptions used in each model. The consensus Buy and Cordros HOLD are different, internally coherent scenarios—not a single definitive forecast.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why can EPS grow faster than revenue in the DANGCEM forecasts?
EPS can rise faster when higher volumes and pricing spread fixed costs over more tonnes and preserve operating leverage. That relationship is not automatic: the effect weakens if fuel, haulage, tax or financing costs rise faster than revenue.
What does Mta mean in Dangote Cement capacity figures?
Mta means million tonnes per annum, the annual production capacity measured at a plant or across the group. It describes installed capability, not the tonnes actually sold in a particular reporting period.
Does the ₦70 dividend figure mean Dangote Cement has declared that payout?
No. The ₦70 amount is Cordros’ 2026E dividend-per-share forecast. A forecast DPS can differ from the final dividend proposed and approved by the company.
Was a third-quarter 2026 result available in the published evidence?
The company’s results index contained sections for first-quarter and second-quarter 2026 materials and a third-quarter section, but no published Q3 statement was available in the information reviewed through 27 October 2026. H1 figures therefore remain the latest complete reported period in this analysis.
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