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Public safety agencies can allocate resources without predictive-policing software by diagnosing specific recurring problems and choosing a tailored response. Problem-oriented policing (POP), often organized around the SARA cycle—scanning, analysis, response and assessment—is the clearest operational alternative. It is not a product that produces a score: it is a way to understand a problem, involve relevant partners, act, and check whether the response helped. Community-oriented policing, place-based tactics, focused interventions and public-health or social-service resources can all contribute when local analysis supports them.
What can an agency use instead of predictive policing software?
There is no single replacement that fits every agency or problem. A practical alternative is to build a repeatable problem-solving process, then choose tactics based on a local diagnosis rather than treating a prediction or risk score as proof of what will happen.
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The College of Policing describes problem-solving policing as identifying a specific problem, analyzing it thoroughly, developing a tailored response and assessing its effects. Its SARA framework gives agencies a structure for that work. Community-oriented and procedural-justice approaches add goals—such as participation, fair treatment and trust—that a crime-risk ranking alone does not measure well. Depending on the problem, an agency might also consider place-based interventions, focused deterrence, environmental or regulatory changes, and community or public-health services.
These approaches are not interchangeable software modules. They differ in what problem they address, which partners they require and what outcomes they can reasonably be expected to affect. The strongest choice is the one that fits a diagnosed local harm and can be implemented and evaluated responsibly.
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How does problem-oriented policing work without predictive software?
POP starts with a concrete recurring problem, not with a model’s ranked list. SARA helps an agency move from identifying the problem to understanding its causes, selecting a response and assessing the result.
1. Scan for a specific problem
Define the harm narrowly enough to investigate and act on it. A broad label such as “crime in the area” may conceal different events, locations, times, affected groups or underlying conditions. Scanning should identify a recurring issue that matters to residents and can be described in terms an agency and its partners can examine.
Community input matters at this stage: reported incidents alone may not capture residents’ concerns, fear or experiences of disorder. The goal is not to assume that every concern is a police problem, but to agree on what needs attention and whose perspective is missing.
2. Analyze causes and conditions
Analysis asks what is contributing to the problem, rather than only where incidents are concentrated. Examine relevant patterns such as places, times, repeat victimization and gaps in services, and consider whether the apparent pattern reflects a data-quality issue or a genuine recurring harm. Bring in partner agencies where the explanation may involve factors outside policing.
The College of Policing’s POP toolkit presents the approach as applicable to crime or disorder problems and stresses that it should be used alongside specific interventions, not as a substitute for them. Analysis is what helps decide which intervention belongs in the response; it is not a guarantee that a particular tactic will work.
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3. Select a response that matches the diagnosis
Choose a tailored mix of actions rather than defaulting to increased police presence or a technology purchase. Depending on what the analysis establishes, the response may involve police activity, changes to a place or process, regulatory action, community partners, public-health services or social services. Agree who is responsible for each action and what safeguards apply.
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Before acting, set out what success would mean and how it will be assessed. Look beyond a single incident count: consider the intended harm, repeat victimization, possible displacement to nearby places, equity, community experience and whether the response was delivered as planned. If results are weak or harmful, revise or stop the intervention rather than treating its continuation as proof of success.
The College of Policing’s 2020 update, citing Hinkle and colleagues (2020), reports that the referenced meta-analytic review included 34 primary studies. That figure describes the review’s study count; it is not an estimate of the effect of every POP program or evidence that POP always outperforms predictive policing. The College’s 2023 implementation guidance emphasizes that sustainable POP needs governance, organizational infrastructure and capability, and partnerships.
What other approaches can complement problem-solving?
Other approaches can be considered after the agency understands the local problem. Community-based, place-based and person-focused tactics have different aims, so compare them on effectiveness, equity, legitimacy and implementation demands—not just on whether they can be deployed quickly.
Community-oriented and procedural-justice policing
Community-oriented policing emphasizes participation and collective efficacy; procedural justice focuses on how police interact with people. These approaches can shape how an agency listens, explains decisions and works with residents, rather than simply adding another enforcement tactic.
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A review of the literature by the Office of Justice Programs reports outcome evidence supporting community-oriented and problem-oriented interventions for reducing crime and disorder. It also notes that collective efficacy, legitimacy and fear of crime are often overlooked or poorly defined in research. An agency that values these outcomes should define them explicitly in its evaluation plan rather than assuming that a reduction in recorded incidents demonstrates improved trust or fairness.
Place-based responses
The National Academies’ taxonomy includes hot-spots policing and CCTV in a place-based approach. These tactics focus on places, but a place-based response is not automatically a predictive system: it can be selected using transparent, legally compliant criteria after local diagnosis. The agency still needs to assess whether the tactic addresses the identified problem and whether effects or harms shift to nearby locations.
Person-focused responses
The same National Academies taxonomy includes focused deterrence and repeat-offender programs as person-focused approaches. These require particular care: an agency should use transparent, legally compliant criteria and evaluate the intervention itself. A score or label should not be treated as proof that a person will offend.
Community and public-health resources
The U.S. Department of Justice’s 2024 report on AI and criminal justice says agencies should broadly consider community resources that address root causes, including public-health and social-service interventions, in addition to or instead of a policing response. That is a reminder to assess whether the problem belongs partly—or primarily—to a service system with the right expertise, rather than assuming a police-only response is appropriate.
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How should an agency compare alternatives?
Compare approaches against a written problem statement and a set of measures before selecting a tool or tactic. A proposal that ranks locations or people may be a poor fit if the agency has not established what recurring harm it is trying to reduce or what action the ranking would justify.
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| Comparison area | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Problem fit | Does the approach address a diagnosed recurring problem, or does it merely rank places or people? What specific action would follow, and why does that action fit the causes identified? |
| Evidence and outcomes | What evidence supports the intended intervention? Which outcomes matter: crime or disorder, harm prevention, response time, repeat victimization, displacement or diffusion of effects? What would count as no improvement? |
| Legitimacy and equity | How will residents participate? How will the agency assess procedural fairness, disparate impact, transparency and feedback? Are community outcomes defined rather than assumed? |
| Implementation | Does the agency have the analyst skill, supervision, training, partnerships, data quality and assessment capacity required to deliver the approach? |
| Governance | Can the agency explain the approach publicly? Are audit access, retention rules, procurement controls and correction mechanisms established? |
| Cost and sustainability | What staff time, training, partner funding and maintenance are required? What work or services would lose resources if this approach is funded? |
These questions expose costs that a software price alone does not capture. A non-predictive strategy still needs staff time, training, oversight and evaluation; a multi-agency response may also depend on partners’ capacity and funding. Compare the full implementation burden and opportunity cost, not merely whether a vendor can provide a tool quickly.
What should an agency do before buying or retaining a predictive tool?
An agency considering any predictive system should require safeguards and evaluate whether the system is needed at all. The Department of Justice’s 2024 AI and Criminal Justice report recommends impact assessment, objective third-party auditing, routine database audits and periodic reevaluation for predictive systems that remain in use.
- Define the decision. Specify the public-safety problem, the decision the system would inform and the action staff might take. If the agency cannot explain how a prediction changes a justified response, the tool’s role is unclear.
- Assess likely impacts. Document who may be affected, the intended benefits and potential harms before deployment. Include equity and community outcomes, not just operational measures.
- Check data quality. Establish routine database-quality controls and a way to identify and correct problems. A model’s output cannot resolve weaknesses in the data it relies on.
- Arrange independent scrutiny. Provide for objective third-party auditing and determine what access an auditor needs. Clarify who can inspect results and how concerns will be addressed.
- Set public-facing rules. Explain the system’s role, safeguards, retention rules and correction mechanisms. Procurement terms should support oversight rather than prevent meaningful review.
- Reevaluate periodically. Decide in advance when and how the agency will reassess the system. If it does not serve the stated purpose or creates unacceptable effects, revise or discontinue it.
These are safeguards for systems that remain in use, not an endorsement of predictive deployment. The same report recommends that agencies broadly consider community resources addressing root causes, including services that could be used instead of a policing response.
How can an agency implement a non-predictive approach?
A useful implementation sequence connects resident-defined concerns, analysis, action and evaluation. The sequence below is not a substitute for local legal or policy requirements; it is a way to keep the work tied to the diagnosed problem.
- Define the harm with residents and partners. Agree on the recurring issue, the people affected and the relevant service or agency partners.
- Scan and analyze. Examine causes, locations, times, repeat victimization and service gaps. Use the analysis to distinguish a targeted problem from a broad category that needs clearer definition.
- Choose a tailored mix. Select police, environmental, regulatory, public-health and community responses according to the diagnosis. Record why each action is included and who is responsible.
- Publish the plan and measures. State objectives, responsibilities, safeguards and evaluation measures before deployment. Include how residents can give feedback and how the agency will respond.
- Assess and adjust. Review outcomes, unintended effects, equity, legitimacy and displacement. Continue, revise or stop the intervention based on what the assessment shows.
Capacity building is part of the work. The COPS Office lists Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers in 60 Small Steps among its analyst resources; agencies seeking a manual should verify the edition and availability before relying on it. The College of Policing’s implementation guidance likewise identifies governance, organizational capability and partnerships as conditions for sustainable problem-solving.
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Which alternative is most evidence-based?
The available evidence does not establish a single alternative as the winner for every agency and problem. POP has a substantial evidence base: the College of Policing’s cited meta-analytic review included 34 primary studies, and the Office of Justice Programs review reports support for community-oriented and problem-oriented interventions in reducing crime and disorder. Those findings do not establish that any one tactic will work in every setting or that one alternative always outperforms predictive policing.
Evaluation should also match the agency’s goals. If it measures only recorded crime, it may miss collective efficacy, legitimacy or fear of crime—outcomes the OJP review says are often under-measured or poorly defined. Define those goals explicitly when they matter, and assess them alongside operational and harm-related outcomes.
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Alternatives to prediction change the work an agency must do; they do not eliminate the need for evidence, accountability or resources.
- POP: Offers a structured way to diagnose and assess a defined problem, but requires analytical capability, governance and partnerships to be sustainable.
- Community-oriented and procedural-justice approaches: Put participation, interaction and trust-related goals into view, but those goals need explicit definitions and measurement rather than being inferred from crime statistics.
- Place-based or person-focused tactics: Provide targeted options within a broader response, but the agency must justify its criteria, comply with applicable law and evaluate the intervention rather than rely on a score as proof.
- Public-health and social-service responses: Can address root causes beyond policing, but require appropriate partner capacity and a clear account of who is responsible for the response.
No approach should be selected solely because it is less technical or because it avoids a particular vendor. The agency still needs a defensible problem definition, proportionate action, community-facing safeguards and a way to learn from results.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a public safety agency allocate patrols without an algorithm?
Yes. An agency can use documented local analysis and a defined operational plan to decide where and when to deploy staff. Any allocation method should be explainable, reviewed for equity and tied to a specific objective rather than treated as neutral simply because it is manual.
Does predictive policing software prevent crime?
A prediction is not itself an intervention, and a score does not establish that an event or offense will occur. Whether a system contributes to a useful response depends on the action taken, the data and safeguards, and evaluation of actual outcomes.
What does SARA stand for in policing?
SARA stands for scanning, analysis, response and assessment. It is a problem-solving framework used to structure the work, not a particular software package or a guarantee of a successful outcome.
Should community trust be measured in a policing evaluation?
If trust, legitimacy or fear of crime is part of the objective, it should be defined and assessed directly. The Office of Justice Programs review notes that collective efficacy, legitimacy and fear of crime are often overlooked or poorly defined in the literature.
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