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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11SpaceX shares rose sharply on Friday, October 2, 2026, and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that the stock looked inexpensive relative to its expected growth. Benzinga reported that Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. His valuation case depends heavily on forecasts for AI-computing revenue and execution; it is an analyst model, not SpaceX guidance or an independently audited projection.
What happened to SpaceX stock?
Benzinga’s October 5, 2026 report, citing Benzinga Pro, said SpaceX gained 7.35% on Friday, October 2, to close at $158.96. It also reported that the shares were up 3.6% to $164.63 on Monday morning. Those are dated quote snapshots, not current prices.
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The report said Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target in a Sunday note titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” Benzinga disclosed that Morgan Stanley had co-managed a SpaceX offering in the prior year and received investment-banking fees from the company. That relationship is relevant context for the bank’s rating and target; it does not, by itself, establish that the analysis is wrong.
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What did “cheap and getting cheaper” mean?
Jonas’s reported argument was about valuation relative to forecast growth—not a claim that SpaceX had a low headline multiple. At a cited share price of $159, Morgan Stanley estimated SpaceX at about 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, compared with about 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI companies. On that headline measure, SpaceX was more expensive.
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After adjusting the ratio for expected year-over-year growth, Jonas reportedly put SpaceX at 0.3 times, against a 0.5-times peer median—about 40% lower. At his $300 target, the reported growth-adjusted figure would be about 0.6 times, compared with 0.5 for Amazon, 0.7 for Alphabet and 0.8 for Meta.
These are Morgan Stanley estimates and comparisons relayed by Benzinga, not settled measures of intrinsic value. A growth-adjusted multiple depends on forecasts, the peer group and the calculation method; a lower ratio does not mean the shares are cheap under every valuation approach.
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How the valuation case is built
Existing businesses versus AI-related value
In one framing reported by Benzinga, Jonas valued SpaceX’s existing space and connectivity operations at about $127 per share. Against a cited share price of $159, that leaves roughly $32 per share as the market-implied value for AI. This is an inference from the analyst’s allocation, not a segment valuation disclosed by SpaceX.
Benzinga also described a Morgan Stanley sum-of-the-parts model with different component values:
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| Business or component | Reported value per share | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise AI | $165 | Morgan Stanley estimate after a 50% execution-risk discount |
| Connectivity | $118 | Morgan Stanley estimate |
| External launch | $8 | Morgan Stanley estimate |
| X/Grok | $8 | Morgan Stanley estimate |
The $32 market-implied AI residual and the model’s $165 AI component are not the same calculation. Their difference is central to the bullish thesis: the model assigns substantially more value to AI than the report’s residual framing implies the market was pricing at $159. Neither figure is a SpaceX-reported segment value.
Compute pricing and deployment are major assumptions
The revenue sensitivity in the report turns on both the amount of computing capacity deployed and the price customers pay for it. Benzinga cited Visible Alpha consensus assumptions of $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts. Jonas reportedly estimated that each additional $10 per watt could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue—more than one-third of fiscal 2027 revenue—without changing deployed capacity. He also estimated recent short-term neocloud contracts at $30–$50 per watt.
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These are attributed assumptions and an analyst calculation, not confirmed SpaceX contract terms or guaranteed revenue. As Jonas reportedly put it, compute deployment and pricing “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.” That fragment was quoted by Benzinga; the original Morgan Stanley note was not available in the reporting used here.
What could move the shares—and what could go wrong?
Potential catalysts identified in the October 5 report
Benzinga said Jonas identified Starship Flight 15, then expected in late October or early November, as a possible catalyst. He reportedly said a successful ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” The report also said third-quarter earnings were expected in late October and could offer an early look at the economics of Cursor and Grok Bot. These were forward-looking expectations as of October 5, 2026; the dates and expectations may have changed.
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Downside scenario and historical volatility
Jonas reportedly said a test of $100 within the following 12 months would require a clear slowdown in AI progress, a severe Starship testing setback or material dilution. That is his stated downside scenario, not a price forecast or a complete inventory of risks.
Share supply and operating costs are relevant context. The Associated Press reported that on August 6, 2026, more than 900 million shares became newly available following a lockup expiration; shares rose 6.1% that day to close at $114.92. AP also reported a $541 million loss on $7.8 billion in revenue for the three months through June, alongside sharply higher research, development and infrastructure spending. Those August figures describe an earlier period and should not be confused with October trading.
What SpaceX itself disclosed about the offering
In a June 4, 2026 announcement, SpaceX said it had launched a roadshow for 555,555,555 Class A shares at an expected offering price of $135, with SPCX proposed as its Nasdaq ticker. The company named Morgan Stanley among the book-running managers and directed investors to the prospectus and other SEC filings for full information and risks. Those offering details are company disclosures; they do not validate the analyst’s later valuation estimates.
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How to read the $300 target
The target and “cheap” characterization rest on Morgan Stanley’s assumptions about growth, AI-compute pricing and deployment, plus successful execution across several businesses. The reported numbers describe a bullish analyst framework, not a company promise or a guaranteed outcome. This is market reporting, not a personalized investment recommendation.
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