North Dakota’s soybean crop has grown over the past decade, but not in a straight line. Production rose from 185.9 million bushels in 2015 to 245.625 million in 2024, while new in-state processing plants have added local markets for beans and demand for soybean oil. China is a major buyer of U.S. soybeans overall, but the available trade figures do not show how much of North Dakota’s exports went there.
How much has North Dakota’s soybean crop grown?
The state’s longer-term expansion is clear, though annual acreage, yields and production fluctuate. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) figures put 2015 production at 185.9 million bushels and 2024 production at 245.625 million bushels.
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| Crop year | North Dakota soybean production | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 185.9 million bushels | Annual production in the NASS historical series |
| 2024 forecast | 251 million bushels | NASS estimate published November 8, 2024; a forecast, not the final annual total |
| 2024 final series | 245.625 million bushels | Annual production in the later NASS bulletin |
| 2025 | 223.905 million bushels | State Agriculture Overview value based on Quick Stats data as of September 13, 2026; USDA estimates can be revised |
The November 2024 forecast described a record crop and projected production 15% above 2023. The later annual series reported a lower 2024 total, so the forecast and retrospective figure should not be treated as interchangeable. The subsequent 2025 value also illustrates why the crop trend is better described as growth over time with year-to-year variation, not an uninterrupted boom.
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There is no single cause established by these figures. Changes in planted acreage and yield both affect production, and the NASS historical series shows that the crop’s volume varies from year to year. New processing capacity and access to export and biofuel markets add demand, but the available figures do not quantify how much each factor contributed to North Dakota’s acreage growth.
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More local processing creates another market
North Dakota’s soybean-processing plants can turn harvested beans into soybean meal and oil, giving growers buyers within the state as well as access to broader commodity markets. The meal is used in animal feed; the oil can serve food markets or be used as feedstock for renewable diesel.
Green Bison’s Spiritwood plant was described by the North Dakota Governor’s Office in 2023 as having capacity to process up to 150,000 bushels per day. The office said the plant supplies vegetable-oil feedstock to Marathon’s Dickinson renewable diesel refinery. North Dakota Soybean Processors opened its Casselton plant in August 2024 and reported first-year processing capacity of up to 42.5 million bushels.
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| Facility | Published capacity | Documented connection or use |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bison, Spiritwood | Up to 150,000 bushels per day, according to the Governor’s Office in 2023 | Soybean processing; vegetable-oil feedstock supplied to Marathon’s Dickinson renewable diesel refinery |
| North Dakota Soybean Processors, Casselton | Up to 42.5 million bushels in its first year, according to the Governor’s Office in 2024 | Local soybean processing; the cited opening announcement gives a first-year capacity figure |
These capacity figures describe different measures—daily capacity at Spiritwood and first-year capacity at Casselton—so they are not directly comparable as annual output. Capacity also does not, by itself, establish how much either plant actually processed.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service explains that growing domestic demand for soybean oil, especially for biofuels, affects U.S. soybean-oil and unprocessed-soybean exports. The North Dakota connection is concrete at Spiritwood: soybean oil becomes feedstock for a renewable diesel refinery in Dickinson. That demonstrates a local market link, not a measured share of the state’s crop expansion attributable to biofuels.
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What do the China trade figures actually show?
North Dakota’s soybean agricultural exports were valued at $1.2 billion in 2024 in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s state profile. That state figure gives export value, not the destinations of those shipments.
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data put U.S. soybean exports at $24.58 billion in 2024, including $12.84 billion in exports to China. China was therefore a major destination for U.S. soybeans, but the national destination split cannot be used to infer North Dakota’s China-bound share.
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| Geographic scope | 2024 soybean export value | What it does—and does not—tell us |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | $1.2 billion | State soybean agricultural export value reported in the USTR profile; destination is not specified there |
| United States | $24.58 billion total; $12.84 billion to China | National exports and destination value reported by USDA FAS; not a state-specific China figure |
Exports are one part of the market picture. A state export total does not establish how much crop was sold abroad rather than processed domestically, and export value is not the same as production volume or farm revenue.
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What the boom means for North Dakota
The evidence points to a larger but variable soybean crop, a substantial export market and new local outlets that can convert beans into meal and oil. Biofuel demand is one reason soybean oil has gained importance in U.S. markets, and North Dakota has a direct processing link to renewable diesel. China’s importance is established for U.S. soybean exports overall; the cited figures do not establish a North Dakota-specific China flow or isolate how much biofuels have driven the state’s crop growth.
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