Nike’s latest results point to a difficult fiscal 2027: the company expects revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage, after reporting declines in Direct, Digital, Converse, Greater China and EMEA. Analysts’ concern is that a turnaround may take longer than investors hoped—not that another drop in the share price is certain. The “13-year low” wording is not independently verified here, so this article focuses on the reported business results and dated analyst views.
Why is Nike stock falling?
The immediate pressure is a weak outlook combined with uneven sales. Nike reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $11.213 billion for the quarter ended August 31, 2026, down 4% year over year as reported and 5% on a currency-neutral basis. Diluted earnings per share were $0.48, while net income fell 2% to $712 million. Those earnings figures do not erase the concern that the company expects sales to contract further.
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In its October 1, 2026 results release, Nike forecast a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027. It expects adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, excluding about $0.15 per share in Pace restructuring expenses. That guidance gives investors a concrete reason to question how quickly sales and earnings can recover. Nike’s fiscal Q1 2027 results and outlook.
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The declines were not limited to one channel or product area. Nike Brand wholesale revenue was $6.8 billion, down 1%, while NIKE Direct revenue was $4.1 billion, down 8% reported and 9% currency-neutral. Within Direct, Brand Digital fell 13% and owned stores fell 5%. Converse revenue declined 28% to $263 million.
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Nike said declines in Greater China and EMEA were partly offset by growth in North America. Inventory was $7.8 billion, down 3%, primarily reflecting product-mix shifts. Lower inventory may reduce one source of pressure, but it does not by itself establish that consumer demand or the sales trend has turned around.
Why do analysts think the selling may continue?
Analysts’ caution is about the gap between the scale of the recovery Nike needs and the evidence of progress so far. The company identified Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China as areas where more work remains, even as CEO Elliott Hill said Nike’s “Sport Offense” was driving measurable progress in its performance business. That is management’s assessment, not independent proof that the broader turnaround is on track.
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania downgraded Nike to Sector Perform from Outperform in September 2026 and cut the price target to $50 from $70. Investing.com reported that RBC cited a slower-than-expected turnaround and few near-term catalysts, along with lower fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 EPS estimates. A target is an analyst’s dated judgment, not a guaranteed future share price or a measure of intrinsic value. Investing.com’s report on RBC’s downgrade.
After the October 1 results, Investing.com reported that Bank of America lowered its target, citing limited visibility into a sales turnaround. That October 2 report said the shares were at $35.15 against a $35.02 52-week low at the time; those market figures are a dated snapshot, not current prices. A separate post-results report covered several target cuts and cited pressure in Jordan, Sportswear and China. Investing.com’s Bank of America coverage and Yahoo Finance/The Fly’s post-results analyst coverage.
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Is Nike’s turnaround working?
The evidence is mixed, and it depends on which part of the business is being judged. Nike said its performance business is making measurable progress, while Direct, Digital, Converse and several important regions remained weak in the latest quarter. The company’s own forecast of a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027 suggests that management does not expect a quick return to growth.
There are also reasons not to treat every positive margin figure as proof of a durable recovery. First-quarter fiscal 2027 gross margin rose 60 basis points to 42.8%, primarily because of lower warehousing and logistics costs. In fiscal 2026’s fourth quarter, gross margin rose 890 basis points to 49.2%, but Nike said the increase included an approximately 900-basis-point benefit from expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs. The company’s fiscal 2026 results release makes clear why that quarter’s margin gain should not be read as a simple recurring trend.
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Earlier results show the sales weakness has persisted across several quarters, though the pattern varies by channel. In fiscal 2026’s third quarter, revenue was $11.3 billion, flat as reported and down 3% currency-neutral; wholesale rose 5% while Direct fell 4% reported and 7% currency-neutral. For the full fiscal year, revenue was $46.4 billion, flat reported and down 2% currency-neutral. Nike’s fiscal Q3 2026 release.
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What is Nike’s Pace plan, and what could go wrong?
Nike says its Pace initiative builds on cost realignment announced in March 2026. The measures include supply-chain modernization, a new India campus for enterprise capabilities, shifting to three geographies and further organizational streamlining. Nike estimates cumulative savings of about $2.5 billion through fiscal 2031, alongside about $1.0 billion in pretax charges through that period, including about $0.3 billion expected in fiscal 2027.
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Those are company estimates, not guaranteed savings. Nike says they depend on assumptions and local-law requirements, and actual savings and charges could differ materially. Even if the savings materialize, cost reductions do not automatically restore demand for Sportswear, Jordan or Converse, or resolve regional weakness. Investors must weigh the expected efficiency gains against execution risk and the time required for sales to improve. Nike’s release describes the fiscal 2027 outlook and Pace estimates.
Is Nike’s “13-year low” confirmed?
The available company releases and cited analyst reports do not establish the trading session, whether the figure refers to a closing, intraday or after-hours price, or the historical price series behind “13-year low.” The phrase should therefore be treated as wording from the original headline, not as an independently verified historical-market claim. The cited October 2 report instead described Nike as near a 52-week low at that time, a different and narrower comparison.
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What to watch next
- Sales against guidance: whether reported and currency-neutral revenue begin to track better than the high-single-digit full-year decline forecast.
- Direct and Digital: whether the 8% Direct and 13% Digital declines narrow, and whether wholesale growth can offset softness in owned channels.
- China, Sportswear and Jordan: whether management’s named areas of work show measurable improvement in subsequent results.
- Margin quality: whether gains come from sustainable operating improvement rather than one-off tariff recoveries or cost effects.
- Pace execution: whether the company delivers its estimated savings without charges or disruption exceeding its stated expectations.
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