Civilian harm can be reduced by ruling out weapons whose effects cannot be adequately understood or predicted; limiting other systems by target, time, place, scale and conditions; keeping human judgment and timely intervention meaningful; and reviewing, testing and monitoring systems throughout their lifecycle. These measures can lower risk, but they cannot guarantee that civilians will never be harmed. They are safeguards and recommendations—not a universally adopted set of treaty rules.
First, distinguish AI-enabled weapons from autonomous weapons
“AI-enabled weapons” is a broad term. It can include systems that use AI to analyze information or support a human decision without selecting or attacking targets autonomously. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) describes an autonomous weapon system as one that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further human intervention. The categories overlap, but they are not interchangeable: using AI in a military system does not by itself make that system an autonomous weapon.
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The distinction matters because safeguards should match what a system actually does, how quickly it acts and what role people retain. A decision-support tool presents different control questions from a weapon that selects and engages targets after activation.
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A basic civilian-protection safeguard is not to develop or use a system when its effects cannot be sufficiently understood, predicted and explained for the intended circumstances. If operators cannot reasonably anticipate what it will do, they may be unable to limit its effects or judge whether its use complies with international humanitarian law (IHL).
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The ICRC has called for unpredictable autonomous weapon systems to be expressly ruled out, citing their potential indiscriminate effects. It has also recommended prohibiting autonomous weapons designed or used to apply force directly against people. These are the ICRC’s recommended rules; they should not be mistaken for prohibitions already binding on every state under a universally adopted treaty.
Bound permitted use by target, place, time and scale
For systems not ruled out, constraints should make the mission specific enough for people to assess and control. A system’s technical ability to identify something is not, on its own, proof that the thing is a lawful target in the circumstances of an attack. The ICRC’s practical-control framework highlights weapon parameters, the operating environment and human supervision as connected parts of control.
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| Limit | How it can reduce risk | What needs to be established |
|---|---|---|
| Target type | Restricts engagement to categories the system can reliably distinguish and that can lawfully be attacked, such as military objectives by nature in appropriate circumstances. | Whether the system can distinguish the defined target in the actual environment, and whether the category is narrow enough to avoid treating civilians or civilian objects as targets. |
| Geography | Keeps operation within a defined area where the relevant conditions have been assessed. | Whether the boundary is precise and enforceable, and how use is stopped or reassessed if conditions change or the system approaches the boundary. |
| Duration | Limits how long a system can act without renewed human assessment. | Whether the time window is specific and what happens when it expires or the mission’s assumptions no longer hold. |
| Scale | Limits the number or scope of engagements so that human control remains connected to a defined mission. | Whether the permitted scale is bounded and compatible with effective supervision and context-dependent legal judgments. |
| Operating context | Restricts use to conditions in which civilian presence and civilian objects are absent or can otherwise be appropriately accounted for. | Whether civilian presence and changing circumstances can be detected reliably enough for the planned use, and what action follows uncertainty. |
These limits work together. A narrowly defined target category does not make a mission safe if the system operates in an unsuitable environment or beyond the period for which its behavior and surroundings were assessed.
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A human somewhere in the chain is not enough. Meaningful control depends on whether the people responsible can understand the system’s relevant behavior, define and validate a bounded mission, monitor its operation and intervene in time. The required supervision must fit the system’s speed and the conditions in which it is used.
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- Before activation: Operators need enough information to judge what the system is likely to do, what targets and conditions it is authorized to act on, and how the mission can be changed or stopped.
- During use: Monitoring should allow operators to identify relevant failures or changed circumstances and take action while it can still matter. A theoretical ability to deactivate a system is not an effective safeguard if the intervention cannot be made in time.
- For each attack: People must be able to make the context-dependent judgments required by IHL, including distinction, proportionality and precautions. An automated process cannot make those legal judgments valid merely by producing a recommendation.
Review, test and monitor across the system’s lifecycle
Safeguards should begin before a system is fielded and continue when it is used. Article 36 of Additional Protocol I is the treaty provision for reviewing new weapons; the ICRC says states should determine whether new weapons comply with IHL. The precise treaty obligations applicable to a state depend on the treaties and rules binding on it.
- Review before acquisition or use. Assess whether the weapon and its intended methods of use comply with the rules applicable to the state, including the circumstances and limits planned for deployment.
- Test relevant behavior. Evaluate performance under conditions representative of the intended environment, including foreseeable failure modes and situations in which targets or civilian presence may be difficult to distinguish.
- Set operating limits and supervision. Translate the assessment into target, geographic, time, scale and context constraints, along with procedures for monitoring and timely intervention.
- Monitor deployment and retain records. Track reliability and usability in use, and preserve information needed to investigate incidents and assess whether safeguards worked as intended.
- Reassess material changes. Revisit the assessment when a system, its software, mission parameters or operating conditions change in ways that could affect its behavior or legal review.
No single technical feature—such as a target filter or shutdown control—replaces this combination of review, oversight and accountability.
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Use AI decision-support as assistance, not as the legal decision-maker
AI decision-support may help synthesize information about civilians and civilian objects or recommend means and methods that could reduce incidental harm. Its output can inform a decision, but the legality of a particular attack depends on the circumstances, and the required human judgment remains with the responsible decision-makers. A recommendation from software neither transfers that responsibility nor establishes that the information is complete or correct.
What the international policy debate does—and does not—establish
In its 2024 Governing AI for Humanity report, the UN Secretary-General stated that 120 Member States supported a new treaty on autonomous weapons at that time. That is a report-era figure, not a current count or proof that a treaty was adopted. Proposals in 2024 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons working papers reflect their authors’ positions; they should not be presented as settled consensus. The ICRC’s recommendations likewise need to be distinguished from rules already binding on all states.
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The practical conclusion is to combine limits on what a system may target and where and when it may operate with informed human supervision and continuing legal and technical scrutiny. The available materials do not establish a percentage reduction in civilian casualties for any one safeguard, so claims of a quantified effect would go beyond the evidence.
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