El Niño raises the risk of below-normal June–September southwest monsoon rainfall over India, but it does not determine how much rain a particular season will bring. The India Meteorological Department’s historical record includes El Niño years with deficient, near-normal and above-normal rainfall. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the timing of active and break spells, and regional conditions can all affect the result.
What does El Niño mean for monsoon rainfall in India?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-and-atmosphere pattern in the tropical Pacific. NOAA monitors sea-surface temperatures in designated Niño regions as part of its ENSO diagnosis. The familiar link to Indian rainfall concerns the southwest, or summer, monsoon—principally June through September—not every rainy season or every location in India. NOAA’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion explains the Pacific pattern and its current status.
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A warmer central and eastern equatorial Pacific can alter tropical circulation and the broader atmospheric conditions that influence monsoon circulation. Across seasons, El Niño is associated with a greater likelihood of weak monsoon rainfall over India. It is a shift in odds, not a local rainfall forecast or a guarantee of drought.
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Often, but not invariably. IMD’s table of southwest monsoon rainfall departures for El Niño years includes several large deficits, as well as seasons close to or above the long-period average (LPA). These all-India June–September departures illustrate the range:
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| El Niño year | India monsoon rainfall departure from LPA |
|---|---|
| 1965 | −18.6% |
| 1972 | −22.3% |
| 1987 | −14.3% |
| 1997 | +0.2% |
| 2002 | −20.9% |
| 2015 | −12.7% |
| 2023 | −5.3% |
| 1953 | +10.7% |
| 1994 | +13.9% |
Figures are seasonal departures in IMD’s historical El Niño-year table, retrieved in 2026. They are observed outcomes for those years, not estimates of what another El Niño will produce. IMD’s monsoon information resources provide rainfall records and related material.
Why can India still get good monsoon rain during El Niño?
ENSO is only one influence on the monsoon. The Indian Ocean Dipole, which describes a pattern of sea-surface temperature differences across the tropical Indian Ocean, can interact with the Pacific signal. The timing of monsoon circulation changes also matters: a seasonal total may conceal a dry spell in one month and heavy rain in another. Regional rainfall can differ substantially even when the all-India seasonal total is near normal.
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The 2023 season is a useful example of why the relationship is not one-to-one. IMD reported an all-India June–September departure of −5.3% in an El Niño year and noted that a positive IOD in the latter part of the year offset some deficiency. IMD also described substantial intraseasonal variation. That does not mean a positive IOD will always cancel El Niño’s influence; it shows why the Pacific phase alone cannot explain a season’s outcome. IMD’s 2023 monsoon report and rainfall information discuss the season.
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In 2024, when ENSO and IOD were neutral, all-India June–September rainfall reached 108% of LPA. Monthly totals varied: June was 89% of LPA, July 109%, August 115% and September 112%. The monsoon core zone—which includes much of India’s rainfed agricultural region—received 122% of LPA. These are IMD’s reported 2024 observations, not El Niño-year figures or a template for another season. They demonstrate how the national total, month-by-month pattern and regional totals can tell different parts of the story. IMD’s monsoon reports publish seasonal summaries.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read an ENSO outlook alongside an India monsoon forecast
As of its 10 September 2026 discussion, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had issued an El Niño Advisory and said the event was strengthening. It forecast a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. That probability concerns ENSO strength in the Pacific; it is not a probability of a particular Indian monsoon outcome. NOAA’s probabilistic outlook combines model forecasts and observations, and NOAA cautions that even strong ENSO events do not guarantee expected regional impacts. NOAA’s 10 September 2026 ENSO discussion and Relative Oceanic Niño Index outlook describe the ENSO outlook.
For India-specific expectations, look to IMD’s seasonal monsoon forecast and its verification, rather than translating a Pacific forecast into an all-India or state-level rainfall percentage. To interpret an active season, keep three things distinct:
- ENSO status: whether conditions are El Niño, La Niña or neutral, and how they are forecast to evolve.
- India’s seasonal outlook: IMD’s assessment of likely monsoon rainfall over India.
- Observed rainfall: actual totals by region and month, which may differ from both the national seasonal forecast and the ENSO tendency.
IMD’s monsoon information index links rainfall records, ENSO and IOD indices, seasonal reports and forecast-verification material.
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