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A Consumer Technology Association (CTA) study produced with consulting firm Kearney estimates that making both the components and finished products for 10 consumer-tech categories in the United States would require $185–230 billion in capital spending, 555,000–668,000 additional full-time workers, and 19.1–19.5 billion more kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. Its model also puts manufacturing costs 41% to 152% above the import-based comparison, depending on product. These are modeled costs and capacity needs—not observed price increases or a forecast for any named device.
The study’s less ambitious alternative, assembling products in the U.S. while continuing to use largely imported components, has substantially lower modeled requirements. It is not the same as making technology entirely in America.
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What does “100% U.S.-made tech” mean in this study?
CTA and Kearney modeled two different production scenarios for computer monitors, laptops, robotic vacuums, smart speakers, smartphones, smartwatches, televisions, video game consoles, wireless earbuds, and wireless headphones. The full-production scenario assumes U.S.-based assembly and U.S.-sourced components. It does not cover every technology product or every kind of technology business.
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How much more could manufacturing cost?
CTA’s modeled manufacturing-cost increases vary considerably by product. The figures below are changes in manufacturing cost under its full U.S.-production scenario, not predicted retail-price increases.
| Product | Modeled manufacturing-cost increase |
|---|---|
| Smartphone | 152% (CTA, 2026) |
| Smartwatch | 97% (CTA, 2026) |
| Laptop | 93% (CTA, 2026) |
| Television | 41% (CTA, 2026) |
| Other modeled categories | CTA reports a range of 41% to 152% across the 10 categories; category-level figures are not stated in its public release for each remaining product. |
Those percentages do not mean a phone on a store shelf would cost 152% more. CTA separately estimates a weighted average retail-price increase of 27% to 55% across the 10 products, assuming that 25% to 50% of the modeled cost increase is passed on to consumers. The range depends on that pass-through assumption; it is not a price estimate for an individual product or brand.
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What would full domestic production require?
For the 10 categories combined, CTA estimates these additional annual or one-time requirements for its two scenarios:
| Measure | U.S. components and assembly | U.S. final assembly, mostly imported components |
|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | $185–230 billion (CTA, 2026) | $16–19 billion (CTA, 2026) |
| Additional full-time workers | 555,000–668,000 (CTA, 2026) | 61,000–73,000 (CTA, 2026) |
| Additional electricity per year | 19.1–19.5 billion kilowatt-hours (CTA, 2026) | 1.4–1.8 billion kilowatt-hours (CTA, 2026) |
| Component sourcing | U.S.-sourced components in the modeled scenario | Largely non-U.S. components |
| Manufacturing-cost examples | Smartphones: +152%; laptops: +93% (CTA, 2026) | Smartphones: +67%; laptops: +50% (CTA, 2026) |
Capital expenditure is the investment estimate, while workers and electricity are additional operating capacity the modeled production would need. CTA’s public release does not give a product-by-product breakdown of the totals in this table.
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Why is U.S. assembly a different—and cheaper—path?
Final assembly is only one stage in a device’s supply chain. A phone assembled in the United States from components made elsewhere would meet the study’s assembly scenario, not its full-production definition. That distinction explains much of the gap between the scenarios: the assembly path does not require shifting component manufacturing, along with the facilities and capacity it needs, into the country.
CTA’s assembly scenario still carries modeled manufacturing-cost increases: 67% for smartphones and 50% for laptops. These are manufacturing-cost comparisons, not equivalent retail-price forecasts. CTA recommends domestic assembly of selected products as an initial step and argues that lower tariffs on component parts, particularly from partners and allies, could improve the economics. Those recommendations are CTA’s policy position.
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How were the estimates built, and how precise are they?
CTA describes the analysis as a bottom-up, engineering-based “should cost” model produced with Kearney. Kearney’s product cost engineering practice modeled bills of materials and manufacturing value-add, drawing on cost observations for materials, purchased components, direct labor, utilities, and overhead across countries in scope, then adding freight and logistics.
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Do semiconductor tariffs already impose a 100% duty?
Not according to the January 14, 2026 White House proclamation cited here. It sets a 25% ad valorem duty on specified covered advanced computing chips, effective January 15, 2026, and includes exceptions for certain uses, including some U.S. data-center applications, repairs and replacements, research and development, startups, consumer uses, civil-industrial uses, and public-sector applications. The proclamation also says broader tariffs may be considered depending on negotiations. It does not establish a general 100% tariff on semiconductors or all technology goods.
Tariff scope and exceptions can change; this describes that dated proclamation, not a guarantee of the rules currently applied to every import. Customs notices should be checked for a live shipment or purchasing decision.
What the study does—and does not—show
CTA represents consumer-technology businesses, so its analysis comes from an industry association with a stake in the policy debate. Its model offers estimates of cost and capacity under specified production scenarios, while its recommendations about tariffs and domestic assembly are advocacy. The study does not establish what a particular future smartphone, laptop, or television will cost at retail, nor does it independently prove that a given level of domestic production is impossible.
For context, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported $57.8 billion in U.S. semiconductor exports in 2025. That is an industry-reported export figure; it is not a measure of domestic chip capacity, and it is separate from CTA’s model of these 10 consumer-product categories.
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