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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →A 2026 report by Moon The Train says a managed SuperTrend strategy on XAUUSD had no losing calendar year in a historical H4 backtest from January 29, 2020, to September 16, 2026. In the author’s fixed-size comparison, that smoother result came with lower net profit per 0.01 lot than the original strategy. It is a specific backtest result—not evidence that SuperTrend will avoid losing years in future or in live trading.
What the “no losing year” result means
The claim describes one version of one strategy on one instrument and timeframe: XAUUSD, or gold priced in U.S. dollars, on four-hour candles. Moon The Train reports that its managed version had zero losing years in the test period, compared with two losing years for the original fixed-size version. The author says both versions used the same 267 entries; the managed version added trade management and risk-based position sizing.
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That is a bounded historical result, not a general property of the Supertrend indicator. The figures below are the publisher’s reported backtest results, not independently verified performance.
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Supertrend is an ATR-based trend-following indicator. It places a band around price using the midpoint of the high and low and an offset based on Average True Range (ATR). The ATR length sets the lookback used to calculate volatility; the multiplier sets how far the band sits from price. The indicator carries prior bands forward according to its rules, and its line changes sides when price crosses the relevant band. TradingView’s documentation notes that false signals can occur.
#1 Best Overall
In TradingView’s documented strategy, a change from Supertrend above the chart to below it triggers a long entry; a change from below to above triggers a short entry. The managed version described by Moon The Train retains the entry signals and changes position management after entry. The report does not establish a universally best ATR length or multiplier for gold, so it does not support a specific “best settings” recommendation.
Original and managed versions: reported comparison
Moon The Train reports this comparison for XAUUSD Raw Spread on H4, from January 29, 2020, through September 16, 2026. The author says spread and commission are included and swap is excluded.
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| Measure | Original Supertrend | With trade management |
|---|---|---|
| Profit factor in the worst year | 0.77 | 1.59 |
| Losing years | 2 | 0 |
| Net profit per 0.01 lot | USD 3,997 | USD 1,359 |
| Maximum drawdown on closed trades | 658; unit not stated in the report | 173; unit not stated in the report |
| Win rate | 43.4% | 52.8% |
| Average holding time | 9.1 days | 1.2 days |
In this fixed-size comparison, the managed version’s reported net profit per 0.01 lot was lower, while its worst-year profit factor, closed-trade drawdown figure, win rate, and average holding time differed as shown. Moon The Train says the trade-management layer did not change the profit factor overall; it shortened holding time and changed how returns were distributed. The report does not identify which calendar year was the worst year or state the currency or calculation unit for the drawdown figures, so those values should not be interpreted as a particular cash loss.
What risk-based sizing added to the report
Separately, Moon The Train reports that applying risk-based sizing at 2% risk per trade to a USD 10,000 test account produced a backtested ending balance of USD 21,605 and a maximum drawdown of 5.7%. This is an outcome reported for that historical simulation, not an expected return, forecast, or recommended risk level. Position sizing changes the monetary effect of a sequence of trades; it does not establish that the underlying entries will remain profitable.
Rank #3
Why the period matters
The author’s preceding gold H4 test reported a profit factor of 1.97 across 267 trades from January 2020 to September 2026, with 97% of reported profit attributed to 2024 through September 2026. In that report, the profit factor was 1.05 for 2020–2023 and 3.19 for 2024–September 2026. The author also reported that the best-looking multiplier changed when the sample was restricted to 2020–2023.
Those results make the period split important: a strong total across several years can be dominated by a more favorable subperiod. The same author reported losses for NZDUSD on M15, H1, and H4 under the settings tested. That does not prove how the strategy behaves on other pairs, but it does show why a gold result should not be assumed to transfer to another instrument or timeframe.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to assess an optimization claim
A useful evaluation asks whether a strategy survives more than the single period and configuration that produced its best result. For this report, the following checks matter:
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →- Compare years and subperiods. Review calendar-year results as well as distinct market regimes, rather than relying on the full-period total.
- Check drawdown definitions. The cited comparison specifies maximum drawdown on closed trades; that is not automatically interchangeable with an intratrade or account-equity drawdown measure.
- Include realistic costs. The author includes spread and commission but excludes swap. Overnight financing can affect positions held for multiple days, so its omission leaves the reported result incomplete for a swap-bearing account.
- Test parameter sensitivity. Compare nearby ATR lengths and multipliers, including settings not selected as the apparent winner. A result that changes sharply with small parameter adjustments may be fragile.
- Keep market and execution conditions specific. The reported test is for XAUUSD Raw Spread on H4. Its results do not establish performance with another broker, data feed, timeframe, or live account.
What remains unproven
Moon The Train says the managed version still needs a real-tick test in MetaTrader 5; the reported figures are not that validation. The sources also do not independently verify the code, input data, fills, or calculations. The article author’s own verdict was that the result was promising enough for the next test, but “It’s not proven yet.” Until swap-inclusive testing and real-tick validation are reported, the no-losing-year result should be treated as a hypothesis to test, not a dependable trading outcome.
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