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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →SpaceX has the larger planned share of the U.S. Space Force’s most demanding national-security launch work under NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2, but the contract totals do not prove it is cheaper than ULA. Phase 2 initially planned to give ULA about 60% of orders and SpaceX 40%; Lane 2 reverses that approximate split and adds Blue Origin. The programs cover different periods, mission mixes and services, so their headline dollar figures are not like-for-like launch prices.
What the contracts are for
The National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program buys launch services for U.S. national-security missions. The comparison between SpaceX and United Launch Alliance (ULA) is clearest when separated into two procurement phases: Phase 2, a two-provider award, and Phase 3 Lane 2, a later framework for the most critical payloads.
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Phase 3 also includes Lane 1, which is designed for less stringent, more risk-tolerant missions and allows multiple providers to compete with mission assurance tailored to the launch. It is therefore inaccurate to treat all Phase 3 work as a two-company contest.
Phase 2 and Phase 3 Lane 2 compared
| Dimension | NSSL Phase 2 | NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Procurement purpose | Competitive acquisition from two providers for national-security launches. | Assured access for the most critical payloads, with full certification and mission assurance. |
| Contract approach | Five-year firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery requirements contracts. | Firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery requirements contracts with a five-year base ordering period, FY2025–FY2029. |
| Planned provider allocation | Initial plan: about 60% of orders for ULA and 40% for SpaceX. | About 40% for ULA and 60% for SpaceX, plus seven planned Blue Origin missions. |
| Planned scale | Approximately 34 launches during the Phase 2 award period. | GAO’s Phase 3 summary describes approximately 54 Lane 2 missions; the 2025 award announcement describes 84 total Lane 2 missions planned for FY2025–FY2029. These are figures from different source contexts. |
| Mission assurance | Certification and mission requirements for the Phase 2 acquisition. | Full mission-assurance requirements; GAO said providers had to complete certification by October 1, 2026. |
| What award values represent | Values reflect specific launch and mission mixes. | Umbrella awards include launch services and additional mission-related services; they are not comparable unit prices. |
Phase 3 Lane 2 awards: planned missions and anticipated values
In April 2025, the Space Force announced anticipated Lane 2 award values and mission counts for the FY2025–FY2029 ordering period:
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| Provider | Planned missions | Anticipated award value |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 28 | $5,923,580,297 |
| United Launch Services (ULA) | 19 | $5,366,439,406 |
| Blue Origin | 7 | $2,386,234,812 |
The award announcement projected a nominal two-year integration period, with launches expected from FY2027 through FY2032. Those were schedule expectations at the time of award, not confirmation that the launches have occurred or will occur on those dates.
The values cover more than a rocket and a launch. The contract scope includes mission-unique services, launch support, special studies, and integration studies or mission analysis. Dividing each provider’s award value by its mission count would produce an average for a different bundle and mission mix, not a defensible price for an equivalent launch.
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What the FY2026 assignments show
In the FY2026 assignment cycle, the Space Force assigned SpaceX five Lane 2 missions for a combined $714 million and ULA two missions for a combined $428 million. Blue Origin received no assignment in that cycle; its next opportunity was in FY2027. These are assigned mission-set totals, not a controlled comparison of identical missions.
Assignments can also change. In March 2026, the Space Force said it was moving GPS III-8 from ULA to SpaceX while a Vulcan anomaly investigation continued, and shifting a later mission to ULA. That reassignment illustrates how the government can adjust providers to protect delivery timelines; by itself, it does not establish that either provider is more reliable or less expensive overall.
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- READY TO FLY: Rocket-building kits are creative, educational gift ideas for Christmas or special-occasion surprises! This beginner-friendly Athena rocket comes fully assembled and just takes 15 minutes of preparation time. This model pairs with the Porta Pad II Launch Pad and Electron Beam Launch Controller (sold separately) for blastoff.SAFETY FIRST, FUN ALWAYS: Our rockets are designed to be used with the NAR (National Association of Rocketry) model-rocket safety code. Always ensure you have an appropriate launch site, stand back at least 15 ft., insert the safety key, issue a countdown, and then you can let your rocket fly!
- SAFETY FIRST, FUN ALWAYS: Our rockets are designed to be used with the NAR (National Association of Rocketry) model-rocket safety code. Always ensure you have an appropriate launch site, stand back at least 15 ft., insert the safety key, issue a countdown, and then you can let your rocket fly!
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Why the dollar totals do not answer “which is cheaper?”
The available award and assignment figures do not compare SpaceX and ULA launching the same payload to the same orbit under the same support and assurance requirements. Mission value can depend on vehicle configuration, performance and orbit needs, payload integration, mission assurance, and bundled services. The cited figures therefore do not establish which provider would cost less for an equivalent launch.
Nor should the allocation percentages be read as a performance ranking. Phase 2’s initial 60% ULA / 40% SpaceX expectation and Phase 3 Lane 2’s approximate 40% ULA / 60% SpaceX plan belong to separate awards with different periods, mission mixes, readiness considerations, and schedules.
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Lane 1 makes Phase 3 broader than SpaceX versus ULA
Lane 1 offers a competition path for missions with less stringent assurance needs. By July 2026, the Space Force had added Impulse Space and Relativity Federal to providers previously on-ramped, bringing Lane 1 to seven providers.
In July 2026, the Space Force announced a Lane 1 task order for 18 Falcon 9 launches for the Space Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, valued at $1.6 billion. This is context for SpaceX’s wider government launch business, not a Lane 2 comparison with ULA.
Quick Recap
How to read the comparison
- Compare the same kind of figure. A planned umbrella-award value, a task-order total, and a completed launch are different measures.
- Keep the period and allocation attached. Phase 2’s initial expected split is not the Phase 3 Lane 2 plan.
- Do not infer unit price from award totals. The mission sets and bundled support differ, and the available figures are not normalized for equivalent missions.
- Treat schedules and future assignments as plans. The 2025 award schedule was an expectation, and assignments can change as mission needs and provider circumstances evolve.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
