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A study published in 2026 mapped a 21% decline in coastal forest cover—about 64,220 hectares—in its North Carolina study region between 1985 and 2021. The mapped conversion of forest to marsh, ghost forest and shrub was greater in 2010–2021 than in 1985–2010, and ghost forests expanded especially quickly. That is evidence of faster change in the period measured, not a forecast of what will happen next.
What changed, and when?
The study tracked land-cover transitions over two periods of different lengths. Its totals show more forest converted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub in the later, shorter period. Ghost forest—the remains of tree-covered land where trees have died or are dying amid changing coastal conditions—also expanded more in that interval.
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| Measured period | Forest converted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub | Ghost-forest expansion |
|---|---|---|
| 1985–2010 | 16,968 hectares | 3,087 hectares |
| 2010–2021 | 23,876 hectares | 7,561 hectares |
Because the two periods span different numbers of years, the raw totals alone are not an apples-to-apples comparison of annual pace. Dividing each period’s conversion total by its length gives roughly 679 hectares per year for 1985–2010 and 2,170 hectares per year for 2010–2021. Those are simple averages calculated from the study’s period totals, not a projection or a claim that change proceeded evenly each year.
Across the full 1985–2021 study period, the researchers mapped a 21% decline—about 64,220 hectares—in coastal forest cover. More than 40,000 hectares shifted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub. These are mapped changes in land-cover classes within the study’s coastal region, not a current-year statewide count, a direct census of every dead tree, or evidence that every changed hectare became open water.
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Why are coastal forests changing?
The study identifies proximity to channels, salinity and the increasing rate of relative sea-level rise as key environmental drivers of conversion to ghost forest and marsh. These factors help explain why impacts vary across the coast: land near channels and exposed to saltier conditions can face different pressures from forest farther inland.
Saltwater and rising groundwater
Saltwater can move inland during high tides and storm surge. The North Carolina Forest Service also describes a less visible stress: rising coastal water tables can saturate soils, reducing the oxygen available to tree roots. In the Coastal Plain, the agency says groundwater-related tree mortality can be as significant as, or more significant than, saltwater intrusion. The causes are therefore not limited to saltwater directly reaching trees.
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Drought and storms can add stress
North Carolina State University’s account identifies areas that experienced severe drought from 2007 to 2011 and Hurricane Irene in 2011; some did not recover despite protected status. Those examples show how extreme events can compound stress in particular places. The study does not isolate how much of the mapped change was caused by either event rather than by longer-term coastal conditions.
How did researchers map the change?
Researchers used Landsat satellite imagery to estimate long-term land-cover change from 1985 to 2021. They used convolutional neural networks to classify land cover, and found that adding phenological and topographic indices improved separation of ghost forest from other vegetation classes. In practical terms, the classification drew on seasonal vegetation patterns and terrain information as well as imagery.
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For the shared 2021 classification year, the team compared Landsat 8 with Sentinel-2. The study abstract reports F1 classification scores of 93.4 for Landsat and 96.3 for Sentinel-2 in that comparison. These scores describe performance in the study’s classification comparison; they are not guarantees that every location or historical year was classified with the same performance. Landsat’s longer record made it useful for the multidecade analysis even though Sentinel-2 scored higher in the 2021 comparison.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the other coastal-forest figures
The North Carolina Forest Service’s 2025 Forest Health Highlights separately reports more than 61,000 acres of forestland mapped as impacted by sea-level-rise-related factors, with estimated tree mortality ranging from 1% to over 50% in affected areas. This is a different agency mapping effort, with its own measure and scope; its acreage and mortality range should not be added to or treated as equivalent to the study’s hectare totals. “Impacted” land is not the same measure as land mapped as having changed to a different cover class.
Quick Recap
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- Observed transition: the study classifies changes among forest, marsh, ghost forest and shrub over its mapped period.
- Not a future rate: the faster change measured in 2010–2021 does not establish how quickly forests will change in coming years.
- Not a local damage estimate: the figures do not quantify effects on property, livelihoods or local economies.
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