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World desk4 min

Is the U.S. Prison Population Declining? The Latest National Data

The long-term sentenced imprisonment rate is down, but the combined state and federal prison count rose in 2023. Here is how to interpret the figures—and why jail counts differ.
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Not in the latest combined national count: the number of people under state or federal prison jurisdiction rose 2% in 2023, to 1,254,200. The longer-term trend is down for a narrower measure: the sentenced imprisonment rate fell 25% from 2013 to 2023. These figures describe different things, and neither includes local jails.

What the latest national prison count shows

The latest combined state-and-federal year-end count identified here is for 2023. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported 1,254,200 people under state or federal prison jurisdiction on December 31, 2023, up 24,100, or 2%, from 1,230,100 a year earlier. The count includes people of all sentence statuses; 96% of the 2023 total, or 1,210,300 people, had sentences longer than one year. BJS, Prisoners in 2023 – Statistical Tables (September 30, 2025).

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That is a year-end stock: the number under jurisdiction on a particular date. It is not the number admitted to prison during the year, the number released, or the number who spent any time in prison at some point in 2023.

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Why the rate can fall while the count rises

The sentenced imprisonment rate measures people sentenced to more than one year under state or federal jurisdiction per 100,000 U.S. residents of all ages. In 2023, that rate was 360 per 100,000. It was 25% lower than the 2013 rate of 479, but 2% higher than the 2022 rate of 355. The long-run comparison is a decline; the most recent year-to-year comparison is an increase. BJS, Prisoners in 2023 – Statistical Tables (2025).

A count and a rate answer different questions. The count tells how many people were under prison jurisdiction. The rate adjusts a defined prison population for the size of the resident population. The 360 figure is not a rate for everyone counted in the 1,254,200 total, since the rate is limited to people sentenced to more than one year.

State and federal prison populations moved in opposite directions

The 2023 national increase came from state prisons, while the federal count decreased.

Measure Change from 2022 to 2023 What it means
State prison jurisdiction Increased by 26,800, or 2% BJS described this as the first state increase in more than a decade. Thirty-eight states had more people under state prison jurisdiction, and seven states each added more than 1,000.
Federal Bureau of Prisons population Decreased by 2,700, or 2% The federal decline partly offset the increase in state counts.

These figures explain how the combined count could rise despite a federal decrease. They do not establish why the state and federal populations changed. BJS, Prisoners in 2023 – Statistical Tables (2025).

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Admissions and releases provide context, not a cause

States and the Federal Bureau of Prisons admitted 472,300 people and released 453,200 in 2023. Admissions exceeded releases by 19,000, and admissions were 3,100 higher than in 2022. These are annual flows, unlike the year-end population count. The figures describe movement into and out of prison, but by themselves do not explain what drove changes in admissions or releases. BJS, Prisoners in 2023 – Statistical Tables (2025).

What the 2024 federal figure can—and cannot—tell you

BJS reported that the federal prison population fell from 155,972 at yearend 2023 to 154,093 at yearend 2024, a decrease of about 1%. This is a federal-only figure, not a combined national prison count. It cannot establish whether the total for state and federal prisons went up or down in 2024 because it does not include state prisons. The latest combined state-and-federal year-end total identified here is for 2023. BJS, Federal Prisoner Statistics Collected Under the First Step Act, 2025 (published March 12, 2026).

Prisons and local jails are separate measures

Prisons are generally state or federal facilities holding people sentenced to longer terms. Local jails are a separate system, often holding people before trial or serving shorter sentences. A BJS report counted 658,700 people in local jails at midyear 2024, similar to 664,200 at midyear 2023 and 12% below the 2014 count of 744,600. Those jail figures are not part of the prison count above, and their midyear reference date differs from prisons’ year-end count. BJS, Jail Inmates in 2024 – Statistical Tables (September 2026).

Another BJS series combines prisons and local jails. For 2023, it reported 700 incarcerated people per 100,000 adult residents, unchanged from 2022. That is not directly comparable to the 360 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 residents of all ages: the first includes jail and prison populations and uses an adult-population denominator; the second is a prison-only sentenced rate with an all-age denominator. BJS, Correctional Populations in the United States, 2023 – Statistical Tables (September 2025).

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How to read future prison-population claims

Before comparing two figures, check what population and date they describe. The National Prisoner Statistics program distinguishes jurisdiction—the system with legal authority over a person—from custody—the system physically holding that person. It collects state and federal data, including from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, through voluntary participation by corrections departments and the Federal Bureau of Prisons. U.S. Census Bureau, National Prisoner Statistics program description.

  • Count or rate: a count is a number of people; a rate is that number relative to a defined population.
  • All statuses or sentenced prisoners: the total jurisdiction count is broader than the rate for people sentenced to more than one year.
  • State, federal, or combined: federal-only changes do not determine the national total when state prisons are excluded.
  • Prison or jail: local jail data should not be added to or compared with prison totals without naming the combined measure.
  • Year-end or midyear: prison and jail counts may refer to different dates, so they are not a same-day comparison.

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