Before placing a trade, read the complete, current rules for that exact market and turn them into a one-sentence settlement test: What must happen, what evidence counts, by when, and what happens if the result is delayed, revised, ambiguous, or disputed? A market title is a shorthand, not a guarantee of what wins. Check the payout, costs, and settlement timing as well.
Start with the market-specific rules
Open the full rules and important-information sections for the market you intend to trade. Do not rely on the title, a short description, or rules from another market—even one with a similar headline. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says customers are entitled to transparent information about contract terms and settlement, and advises reviewing the rules for the specific market and contract. Read the CFTC’s consumer guide to prediction markets and event contracts.
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As you read, look for the contract’s defined outcome, named evidence source, important dates and times, exceptions, resolution process, payout, and costs. These details together determine what a winning or losing position means in practice.
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Write a sentence that states the condition for each outcome. For example: “This contract resolves to Yes only if the named source publishes the specified result by the stated cutoff; otherwise it resolves according to the contract’s stated alternative.” Use the market’s actual wording and conditions rather than filling in gaps with what seems likely or fair.
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Check whether the contract depends on an official announcement, a particular statistic, a measured value, or another defined result. Note whether the wording covers the event itself or requires a separate confirmation, publication, or action. The venue’s rules for that specific market govern its process; the same event can be framed differently in different contracts.
Identify the evidence source and what happens to it
Find the agency, data source, oracle, or other mechanism the rules name. Then check what qualifies as evidence and whether the rules address revisions, missing information, or a fallback source. Filed product terms can include detailed source-agency and payout provisions, so a general description of the event may not tell you how these cases are handled. Browse the CFTC index of filed product terms and conditions.
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Do not assume a later correction will change a settled contract, or that a fallback will be used, unless the applicable rules say so. If the terms do not clearly explain a case that could change the outcome, treat that uncertainty as material before trading.
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Record each relevant time separately. A contract can have an event window or measurement period, a last trading time, an expiration, a determination time, and a later expected settlement. These are not necessarily the same moment.
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Kalshi’s help center explains that a displayed close time can differ from the time a market is determined, and that settlement may wait for finalized official data. Its guidance is venue-specific; check the exact market rules and current venue information rather than assuming another market follows the same schedule. See Kalshi’s market FAQs.
Look for edge cases and the dispute process
Search the rules for how the contract treats situations that fall outside the obvious Yes-or-No outcome. Relevant terms may address:
- Ties, cancellations, postponements, or events that do not occur.
- Incomplete, delayed, or corrected source data.
- Partial outcomes or events that meet only some conditions.
- Void provisions, review periods, or a last-fair-value determination.
- How a proposed resolution can be challenged and finalized.
These provisions vary by contract. For example, Polymarket describes resolution through UMA’s Optimistic Oracle using each market’s predefined rules, with a proposal and challenge process. That description applies to its process, not automatically to other venues. Read Polymarket’s explanation of market resolution. Kalshi describes a different finalization process that may wait for official data from the named source.
Work out the payout and net cost
Confirm whether the contract is binary, has multiple outcomes, combines conditions, or allows partial payouts. Then calculate the result after the price paid and any fees or other costs. A quoted price and a possible payout alone do not describe the net outcome.
The CFTC notes that common event contracts use fixed payouts, while other structures can have multiple choices or partial payouts. It also advises checking commissions, fees, penalties, and other costs. Its example of buying a contract for 70 cents that pays $1 if the event occurs is illustrative arithmetic: the 30-cent gain is before taxes and fees, not a general return or market statistic.
A contract price is not a guaranteed probability. Market pricing can be affected by liquidity, costs, and other factors. Consider the possible loss as well as the possible payout.
Compare contracts only after checking their terms
If you are comparing similar contracts across markets or venues, compare the terms rather than the headlines:
- What exact event and outcome qualify?
- Which source or resolution mechanism determines the result, and what evidence takes priority?
- What are the event cutoff, expiration, and determination timing?
- How are revisions, cancellations, ties, partial outcomes, and disputes handled?
- What is the payout structure?
- What fees and other costs apply?
Two contracts about the same news event may settle differently because their definitions, sources, cutoffs, or exceptions differ. Regulatory status and access also depend on the specific entity, product, and jurisdiction; these general guidelines do not establish whether a particular market is available or suitable for you.
A final pre-trade check
- Open and read the current rules and important-information section for the exact market.
- Write down the outcome condition, evidence source, cutoff, and fallback or exception terms.
- Record the last trading time, expiration, determination time, and expected settlement separately.
- Check how disputes and edge cases are resolved.
- Calculate the payout after price, fees, and other costs, and decide whether the possible loss is acceptable.
This is general educational information, not a recommendation to trade or legal advice. Check the current terms and applicable rules for the specific market and venue.
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