For the latest official El Niño outlook, start with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and Official ENSO Probabilities. Check the issue date, target season and index before interpreting a percentage: these are odds about ENSO conditions, not promises about what the weather will be where you live.
Where can I find the latest El Niño forecast?
The CPC’s monthly forecast is the best starting point for a general reader because it synthesizes observations, multiple models and expert judgment. Use the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion for the written assessment and the Official ENSO Probabilities page for seasonal odds. The discussion also describes weekly updates to oceanic and atmospheric conditions; forecast probabilities and outlooks are updated monthly.
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Read the issue month and the full three-month season printed with each probability. The probabilities page shows nine overlapping seasons, so adjacent entries are not independent forecasts for entirely separate periods. A 70% value for one season should not be treated as the odds for a single month or for the season after it.
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What is the forecast measuring?
ENSO forecasts describe conditions across the tropical Pacific, not weather at a particular address. Before comparing values, identify the index used and the forecast horizon. Since February 1, 2026, NOAA has used the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) operationally. RONI adjusts the traditional Niño index using tropical-mean sea-surface-temperature departures; NOAA says this better characterizes the atmospheric response and is less dependent on the chosen 30-year average. As a result, a newer RONI value may not be directly comparable with an older forecast expressed as a traditional Niño-3.4 anomaly. NOAA explains the change in its forecast forum and ENSO explainer.
The Official Relative Oceanic Niño Index Outlook also displays percentiles and shaded ranges. The outlook’s 50%, 70% and 90% labels describe the chance that RONI values remain within indicated forecast ranges. They are not probabilities of a particular impact, such as rain or drought, in a location.
How should I compare an official outlook with model forecasts?
Use individual model charts to understand the range of guidance, not as a replacement for the official synthesis. CPC’s forecast forum includes coupled and statistical material such as CFSv2, Markov, LDEO and ENSO-CLIPER, along with an IRI summary. CPC cautions that users “can expect only modest skill.” NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory overview likewise notes that model skill varies and can differ across ENSO phases.
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When comparing forecasts, check these items together:
- Issue date: Forecasts issued in different months had different observations and lead times.
- Target season and lead: Match the same overlapping three-month period and note how far ahead it was predicted.
- Index and base: Distinguish RONI from traditional Niño-3.4 anomalies, and note any stated reference period.
- Type of output: A probability range is not the same thing as a single ensemble-mean line.
- What the probability describes: Separate the chance of an ENSO state or strength from the probability of a regional weather outcome.
The official CPC outlook combines model evidence with observations and forecaster judgment. CPC also describes a model-based probability product that uses model output alone. These approaches answer related but not identical questions, so their percentages should not be compared as if they were produced by the same method.
How accurate are El Niño forecasts?
There is no single skill score that applies to every ENSO forecast, lead time, model, phase and target. NOAA says it is difficult to predict onset because several events associated with Pacific warming need to occur. After an event begins, forecasters have reasonably good skill in predicting its intensity and evolution. That distinction matters: confidence in a developing event’s later strength does not automatically mean the onset was easy to predict.
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A 2019 peer-reviewed paper by Michelle L’Heureux and coauthors compared three ways to produce probabilistic ENSO outlooks: the subjective CPC approach, an objective North American Multi-Model Ensemble method, and a method that maps a forecaster’s expected value to probabilities calibrated using past skill. The proposed third strategy earned higher verification scores in that study. This is evidence about those methods and that assessment, not proof that one approach is best for every forecast or use. See the paper, “Three Strategies for Generating Probabilistic ENSO Outlooks”.
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What does a 70% chance of El Niño mean?
It means the forecast assigns a 70% probability to the defined ENSO outcome for the named season, under the index and threshold used in that product. It is not a promise that the event will occur, nor does it mean that 70% of the season will have El Niño conditions. A displayed 0% on the CPC probabilities page is approximate, not mathematically zero.
Keep the probability attached to its context: the CPC page, issue month, season and ENSO definition. For instance, a probability of reaching an event-strength threshold is different from the probability that an index will fall within a shaded range, and both differ from a local rainfall probability.
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Why do El Niño forecasts change?
New observations arrive, the ocean–atmosphere pattern develops, and the forecast horizon shortens. Onset itself is difficult because several Pacific warming-related events must line up; once an event is underway, intensity and evolution are more predictable. Model guidance can also vary, and model skill is not uniform across ENSO phases. A change from one monthly outlook to the next is therefore a normal feature of a probabilistic forecast, not by itself evidence that the earlier forecast was a guarantee or that the current one is certain.
Does El Niño mean it will rain where I live?
No. ENSO can tilt climate odds, but it does not determine the outcome at a particular location. CPC’s strength outlook notes that stronger events often accompany greater certainty in expected impacts, but “never guarantees them.” For a regional temperature or precipitation outlook, use CPC’s seasonal outlook products rather than inferring local weather directly from an El Niño event forecast. Check the region, valid period and stated probability on that outlook; an ENSO forecast and a local seasonal outlook are different products.
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