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A project can show positive revenue and still run short of cash. The reliable way to forecast it is to date every expected receipt and payment, then keep three questions separate: When will cash move? What does the contract let you bill and collect? When is revenue recognized? Retainage, customer advances, unbilled work, disputed changes, and overdue invoices affect those questions differently.
Use a rolling, project-level cash forecast with an opening balance, expected receipts, project outflows, and a closing balance for each period. Record the contractual due date and your realistic collection date separately. Show retainage as a later potential receipt tied to its release condition, not as cash available today. Record deposits when received, but do not automatically treat them as earned revenue. Update the forecast whenever an approval, acceptance milestone, cost estimate, or payment date changes.
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Start with a cash-timing forecast
The forecast answers a liquidity question: will this project have enough cash to meet payroll, subcontractor, material, equipment, tax, and other obligations when they fall due? It is not a revenue report and not a substitute for the contract or the general ledger.
For each week or month, use this basic calculation:
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Closing cash = opening cash + cash actually received or realistically expected − project cash paid
Carry the closing balance into the next period. Use separate receipt lines so a manager can see which amounts are dependable and which depend on a future event.
| Receipt or cost line | What to record | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Progress invoices | Invoice date, contractual due date, amount billed, and expected collection date | A billed amount is not available cash until collected; a realistic delay scenario may be needed. |
| Retainage | Amount withheld, release milestone or acceptance condition, and expected release date | The withheld amount can be earned or billed while remaining unavailable for current obligations. |
| Deposits and advances | Actual receipt date, amount, and the work or phase to which the money relates | The cash improves liquidity immediately, but the related accounting balance may be a contract liability until performance occurs. |
| Earned but unbilled work | Estimated amount, billing trigger, and likely invoice date | Work can consume cash before the contract permits billing or collection. |
| Change orders | Separate approved, authorized-but-unpriced, pending, and disputed items | Do not count an unresolved change as collected cash; its timing and enforceability are uncertain. |
| Project outflows | Payroll, subcontractors, materials, equipment, insurance, taxes, and other committed or forecast payments | These dates create the funding burden during any collection delay. |
A useful forecast can show a base case, a late-collection case, and a downside case. The downside case might move a customer receipt beyond the next payroll cycle, delay a change-order approval, or increase material payments. Revise the dates when a customer, architect, agency, or subcontractor changes its commitment; do not leave the original schedule simply because the invoice was issued.
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Retainage is money withheld from progress payments to encourage acceptable completion or performance. The Associated General Contractors of America’s Airport Owners’ Guide to Project Delivery Systems, Third Edition (2022) reports a usual range of 5%–10% of contract value. That is the guide’s industry description, not a statutory ceiling or a rate that applies to every trade, owner, jurisdiction, or contract. The same guide describes possible reductions at milestones and notes the cash-flow burden on prime contractors and lower-tier subcontractors.
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Read the payment article and retainage clause together. Identify:
- the percentage or dollar amount withheld from each pay application;
- whether retainage applies to labor, materials, approved changes, or only specified work;
- the event that permits a reduction, such as substantial completion of a phase;
- the event that releases the balance, such as acceptance, closeout, or correction of deficiencies;
- any owner approval, surety, lien-waiver, or documentation requirement; and
- the jurisdiction’s public-work or prompt-payment rules.
For an arithmetic illustration, a $100,000 progress billing subject to 10% retainage produces a near-term receipt forecast of $90,000 before other deductions. The remaining $10,000 is a potential later receipt, but its date must be tied to the contract’s release condition. Do not insert a release date merely because the invoice was submitted.
Retainage can create a financing gap even when every pay application is approved. If monthly costs are $92,000 and the corresponding billing is $100,000 with 10% withheld, the project pays out more than the $90,000 expected receipt in that period. The forecast should expose that shortfall so the contractor can arrange working capital, reschedule discretionary spending, or negotiate a lawful billing adjustment before the deficit occurs.
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U.S. GAAP Topic 606 has no retainage-specific rule. A 2025 FASB staff educational paper explains that classification follows the payment right created by the contract:
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- If payment depends on future performance, acceptance, or another condition beyond the passage of time, the amount may be a contract asset.
- If the contractor has an unconditional right to consideration and only the passage of time is needed before payment, the amount is a receivable.
The label “retainage” does not decide the classification. FASB’s Private Company Council memo from April 2024 notes that, in practice, retainage can be a receivable, a contract asset, or an amount allocated between the two, depending on the contractual terms. Contract asset and contract liability amounts are considered and presented at the contract level, net, under the guidance discussed in the FASB staff paper.
For example, a withheld amount payable automatically 30 days after an approved pay application may have a different classification from an amount payable only after final acceptance and correction of defective work. The forecast treatment is still to show the expected cash date and condition; the financial-statement classification requires the actual contract language and the entity’s accounting policy.
The 2025 FASB paper explains existing GAAP and is educational staff material, not an amendment to Topic 606. It says official FASB positions require due process. Have the controller or external accountant document the payment condition, evidence of satisfaction, and presentation conclusion rather than applying one rule to every project.
Handle deposits and advances as cash plus a contract balance
A customer deposit can solve an immediate cash need while creating an obligation to perform. Topic 606 defines a contract liability as an obligation to transfer goods or services for which consideration has been received or is due. The IFRS 15 overview similarly explains that when payment is received, or an unconditional amount becomes due, before the related goods or services transfer, the entity recognizes a contract liability at that earlier event.
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In the cash forecast, enter the deposit on the date the bank is expected to receive it. Do not count that same money again as a future progress-payment receipt. In the accounting schedule, map the deposit to the performance obligation or project phase it funds, then reduce the liability as performance occurs and revenue is recognized under the applicable standard and contract facts.
Do not assume every deposit is refundable, nonrefundable, or subject to identical revenue treatment. Cancellation rights, acceptance clauses, financing components, and the nature of the promised work can change the conclusion. A deposit may also be legally due but not yet collected; show the contractual right and the expected bank receipt as separate dates.
| Event | Cash forecast entry | Revenue or balance-sheet question |
|---|---|---|
| Advance is received before work | Receipt on the actual or expected bank date | Usually evaluate a contract liability until the related performance occurs; do not call the cash earned revenue automatically. |
| Progress work is billed | Show the contractual due date and a separate expected collection date | Determine whether the right is an unconditional receivable or a conditional contract asset. |
| Retainage is withheld | Show the withheld amount as a later potential receipt tied to release conditions | Classification depends on whether payment is conditional or unconditional. |
| Change order is pending or disputed | Exclude it from dependable receipts; model it in a separate upside or risk line | Authorization, enforceability, and variable consideration must be assessed before recognition. |
Forecast late client payments and slow approvals
Keep two dates for every invoice: the date the contract says payment is due and the date you realistically expect funds to arrive. If an invoice is overdue, move the expected receipt in the forecast and show the resulting cash gap instead of leaving the original date unchanged.
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AGC’s discussion of federal change orders describes contractors continuing to pay payroll, materials, and taxes while delayed processing and payment interrupts cash flow. Unresolved change-order work can also slow or stop work and contribute to project delays. The practical response is to separate:
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- approved and billable changes included in a signed or otherwise enforceable modification;
- authorized work whose final price or paperwork is still being resolved;
- pending requests awaiting owner or agency approval; and
- disputed amounts for which collection is uncertain.
Only the first category should normally appear in a dependable receipt line, and even then its collection date should reflect the payment terms and customer behavior. The other categories belong in a clearly labeled scenario or exposure schedule. Never treat an approved change as cash collected until the receipt arrives.
There is no broadly representative current statistic establishing an average delay or loss rate for construction payments. Build the delay assumption from your own contract history, customer communications, approved schedules, and documented disputes. Keep the assumption visible and date-stamped so another manager can challenge or update it.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Build the forecast step by step
- Set the horizon and opening balance. Use weekly periods when payroll or material commitments are tight; monthly periods may be adequate for a stable project. Reconcile the opening cash to the project or job-cost records.
- Load contractual receipts. Enter each deposit, progress billing, approved change, and expected retainage release with amount, due date, and release condition. Do not combine separate payment triggers into one undated total.
- Assign realistic receipt dates. Consider invoice approval time, weekends and holidays, customer payment practices, lien-waiver requirements, and any known dispute. Preserve the contractual due date in another column for escalation.
- List conditional receipts separately. Track retainage, unbilled earned work, pending changes, and disputed balances in separate lines. Give each one a probability or scenario label only if your internal policy supports that estimate; otherwise leave it outside the base case.
- Load committed and forecast costs. Include payroll taxes, subcontractor applications, material deposits, equipment rentals, insurance, permits, withholding, and project taxes on their expected payment dates. A cost that is incurred but not yet invoiced can still be a future cash requirement.
- Calculate and review closing cash. Flag any period in which closing cash falls below the minimum operating buffer or a known obligation. Trace the deficit to a delayed receipt, retainage, cost acceleration, or missing commitment.
- Run timing scenarios. Move a late invoice one or more periods, remove a pending change from the base case, and delay retainage release until the contractual condition is met. Compare the lowest cash point and the date of the shortfall.
- Document and update. Record who confirmed each payment date, when the forecast was updated, and what evidence supports a change. Reforecast after every approved change, revised schedule, failed payment promise, or material cost revision.
Compare payment arrangements by the terms that drive cash
| Comparison axis | Questions to ask | Forecast implication |
|---|---|---|
| Payment timing | When is the deposit paid? How often are progress applications submitted? What is the approval period and contractual due date? | Separate invoice, approval, due, and expected receipt dates. |
| Retainage | What percentage is withheld? Does it apply to each application? Can it reduce at a milestone? What releases the final balance? | Model withheld cash and its condition instead of treating gross billings as receipts. |
| Conditionality | Does payment depend on acceptance, future performance, or another event, or only on time passing? | The answer informs contract-asset versus receivable presentation under Topic 606. |
| Change orders | Is the work authorized, billable, and payable while final pricing is resolved? | Keep approved amounts in the base case and pending or disputed amounts in a separate exposure. |
| Funding burden | Who pays payroll, subcontractors, materials, and taxes while the owner reviews a claim? | Measure the lowest cash point and any external funding required. |
| Jurisdiction and customer type | Is the job public or private? Which state prompt-payment, retainage, and interest rules apply? | Do not assume a release date, percentage, interest charge, or remedy is universal. |
Worked illustration: a project with retainage and a delayed change
The following numbers are an illustration, not a benchmark. Assume a contractor starts a six-month project with $120,000 of project cash. The contract requires monthly progress billings, permits 10% retainage, and includes a $60,000 change request that has not yet been approved.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minute| Month | Opening cash | Expected receipts | Project outflows | Closing cash | Key assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $120,000 | $0 | $95,000 | $25,000 | Mobilization and early procurement precede the first approved application. |
| 2 | $25,000 | $90,000 | $92,000 | $23,000 | $100,000 billing less $10,000 retainage. |
| 3 | $23,000 | $90,000 | $110,000 | $3,000 | Material purchase accelerates before the next application. |
| 4 | $3,000 | $90,000 | $105,000 | -$12,000 | Base case shows a deficit; the pending $60,000 change is excluded. |
| 5 | -$12,000 | $90,000 | $88,000 | -$10,000 | Customer pays on the normal schedule; retainage remains withheld. |
| 6 | -$10,000 | $190,000 | $80,000 | $100,000 | One $90,000 progress receipt plus a hypothetical $100,000 retainage release; actual release depends on the contract. |
The forecast reveals the problem in month 4, before a missed payroll or supplier payment. Management can then evaluate lawful options such as a documented funding facility, a negotiated billing milestone, cost resequencing, or escalation of an overdue approval. It should not solve the deficit by counting the unapproved change or an unconditional retainage release that the contract does not support.
Common mistakes and how to correct them
- Using revenue as a cash proxy: Replace the revenue schedule with dated bank receipts and payments. A profitable job can still have a negative cash trough.
- Forecasting gross billings as cash: Deduct retainage and any other contractual withholding in the receipt line, then schedule the withheld amount only when its release condition is reasonably dated.
- Counting a deposit twice: Enter it once as a cash receipt and track its contract liability or performance status separately.
- Assuming all retainage is a receivable: Read the acceptance and performance conditions. The right may be a contract asset, a receivable, or allocated between them.
- Putting pending changes in the base case: Keep unresolved work in a separate scenario until authorization, price, and collection rights are sufficiently established.
- Leaving overdue dates unchanged: Move the expected receipt and show the variance from the contractual due date so the funding impact is visible.
- Applying one legal rule everywhere: Confirm whether the project is public or private, which state law applies, and what the executed contract says before relying on a percentage, deadline, interest charge, or remedy.
- Ignoring lower-tier exposure: Include subcontractor payment dates and retainage withheld from them; a prime contractor’s receipt does not automatically remove the subcontractor’s cash burden.
What to verify before finalizing the accounting
For each unusual balance, retain the executed contract, pay application, approval record, change-order log, acceptance evidence, correspondence about payment dates, and the calculation supporting the forecast. Ask the accounting adviser to confirm the applicable U.S. GAAP conclusion; use IFRS 15 where that reporting framework applies. Ask counsel or the project’s payment specialist to confirm state prompt-payment, retainage, lien, and public-contract requirements.
AGC’s retainage guidance history notes that its 2009 best-practices document drew input from more than 1,000 AGC specialty-contractor members responding to a late-2008 survey. That is a dated participation count, not a representative current estimate for all contractors. AGC’s Guide to Construction Financing, Second Edition is additional contractor-oriented reading on financing risks and opportunities, but it is not a substitute for project-specific accounting or legal advice.
Bottom line
Forecast cash by date, not by revenue. Show the amount actually expected to arrive after retainage and realistic payment delays; keep deposits, unbilled work, and pending changes in distinct lines; and tie every retainage release to its contractual condition. Then classify the resulting rights and obligations under the applicable accounting guidance, with the contract language and jurisdiction—not a generic percentage or label—driving the conclusion.
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