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How Scientists Measure the Universe’s Expansion Rate

Astronomers measure the universe’s expansion rate by linking galaxy distances to redshift. The local distance ladder and CMB-based model inferences still produce different estimates.
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Scientists estimate the universe’s present-day expansion rate, called the Hubble constant (H0), by comparing how far away galaxies are with how much their light has shifted toward longer wavelengths. One method builds distances outward from nearby stars; another infers today’s rate from the early-universe cosmic microwave background using a cosmological model. These approaches currently give different answers, and the discrepancy—the Hubble tension—has not been resolved.

What the Hubble constant measures

The Hubble constant describes the present-day relationship between a galaxy’s distance and the rate at which the universe’s expansion carries it away from us. It is commonly expressed in kilometres per second per megaparsec (km/s/Mpc): a megaparsec is a large unit of distance, and the units express how much the expansion-related recession rate changes with distance.

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A galaxy’s redshift is the stretching of its light toward longer wavelengths as the universe expands. Astronomers combine redshift information with a distance scale to estimate H0. This is not a claim that every galaxy moves at the same speed: galaxies at different distances have different expansion-related recession rates, and local motions can also affect observations.

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How the cosmic distance ladder works

The local distance ladder links several kinds of observations. Each rung is calibrated using the one before it, so the result depends on a chain of measurements rather than a single instrument or reading.

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  1. Measure nearby stars geometrically. Parallax is the apparent change in a star’s position as Earth’s viewpoint changes during its orbit. For nearby stars, this provides a geometric distance that can calibrate other distance indicators. NASA’s “Hubble Constant and Tension” explainer describes this as the starting point of the ladder.
  2. Calibrate Cepheid variable stars. Cepheids brighten and dim in a regular cycle. Their pulsation properties are related to their intrinsic brightness. Once that relationship is calibrated using stars with known distances, astronomers can compare a Cepheid’s intrinsic brightness with how bright it appears to estimate its distance in another galaxy.
  3. Use Cepheids to calibrate Type Ia supernovae. Some galaxies that contain Cepheids also host Type Ia supernovae. Because these stellar explosions are much brighter, they can be observed in more distant galaxies. Astronomers standardize their luminosities, using galaxies with Cepheid-based distances as calibrators.
  4. Extend the distance scale and compare with redshift. Standardized Type Ia supernovae in more distant galaxies extend the distance measurements. Comparing those distances with the galaxies’ redshifts allows astronomers to estimate the present-day expansion rate.

The links in this chain are not perfect. Calibration uncertainty, dust, crowded fields of stars, and differences in supernova properties can affect the result. The Particle Data Group’s 2024 review notes that Type Ia supernovae are not perfect standard candles and discusses possible effects such as extinction and redshift evolution.

How the cosmic microwave background gives a different estimate

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) is radiation from the early universe. Instead of measuring distances to nearby stars and then building outward, scientists fit the CMB’s observed patterns with a cosmological model, commonly ΛCDM, and use that fit to infer what the expansion rate should be today.

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That is a model-based inference, not a direct measurement of today’s H0. NASA LAMBDA’s “Hubble Constant” overview emphasizes that the CMB is a high-redshift snapshot; the model is used to calculate the value at redshift zero. The inference also depends on the model’s parameters. The Particle Data Group’s 2024 review describes degeneracies involving parameters including matter density and neutrino mass.

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Why published values differ

The figures below are representative results cited by the Particle Data Group’s 2024 “Cosmological Parameters” review, published 31 May 2024. They are not a complete 2026 catalogue or a single agreed value. The estimates use different observations and assumptions, so their uncertainties should be read with their methods and publication vintage.

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Estimate Method and qualification Source and vintage
73.0 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc SH0ES local distance ladder; the cited analysis used Hubble Space Telescope Cepheids in hosts of 42 Type Ia supernovae and Gaia EDR3 parallaxes. Particle Data Group review, 2024, summarizing the SH0ES 2022 result.
69.8 ± 0.6 (statistical) ± 1.6 (systematic) km/s/Mpc Carnegie–Chicago Hubble Program (CCHP); calibrates Type Ia supernovae with the tip of the red-giant branch. Particle Data Group review, 2024.
67.4 ± 0.5 km/s/Mpc Planck estimate inferred from CMB observations under a cosmological model. Particle Data Group review, 2024.
67.4 +4.1/−3.2 km/s/Mpc Time-delay gravitational-lens estimate from 40 lenses; the uncertainty is asymmetric. Birrer et al., as reported by the Particle Data Group, 2024.
70 +12/−8 km/s/Mpc Bright standard-siren estimate using the gravitational-wave event GW170817; the review describes the uncertainty as broad. Particle Data Group review, 2024.

The central comparison is the locally measured SH0ES value and the CMB-based Planck inference. The Particle Data Group’s 2024 review reports that these differ by about 5σ. NASA’s explainer gives approximate ranges of 70–76 km/s/Mpc for space-telescope measurements and 67–68 km/s/Mpc for CMB-derived values; these are rounded contextual ranges, not boundaries that apply to every method.

What Webb has—and has not—checked

Webb’s infrared observations help test whether crowding of stars or dust in Hubble images could have distorted Cepheid measurements. In a report dated 11 March 2024, ESA said Webb observations covered the Hubble measurement range and examined five supernova host galaxies containing eight Type Ia supernovae and roughly 1,000 Cepheids. The observations reached NGC 5468, about 130 million light-years away, and supported the reliability of Cepheid measurements across that range.

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This is a cross-check of the Cepheid portion of the local distance ladder. It does not independently settle why the locally calibrated distance-ladder results differ from early-universe, CMB-based inferences. NASA and the Particle Data Group describe possible explanations—including underestimated systematic errors or changes to the cosmological model, such as new early-universe physics—as open possibilities, not established answers.

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What other methods contribute

Researchers use other routes to check or extend the comparison. They do not all have the same precision, and none should be assumed free of calibration or model assumptions.

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  • Tip of the red-giant branch (TRGB): uses the characteristic brightness of red-giant stars to calibrate distances, including the CCHP Type Ia supernova route shown above.
  • Baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO): use patterns in the distribution of matter. In an inverse distance ladder, BAO measurements help calibrate supernova distances; the inference depends on how the observables are connected.
  • Strong-lens time delays: compare the arrival times of light that has travelled along different paths around a massive lensing object to constrain distances and the expansion rate.
  • Gravitational-wave standard sirens: use gravitational-wave observations to estimate distance, then combine that with information about recession. The GW170817-based bright-siren estimate in the table has a broad uncertainty; the Particle Data Group says adding a small number of dark sirens still left results dominated by the bright event.

NASA LAMBDA’s method overview also plots approaches involving BAO plus baryon abundance, thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich measurements, and lensing. Their inclusion provides additional ways to compare results, not evidence that all methods currently agree or are equally precise.

How to compare an expansion-rate claim

Before treating two published numbers as competing measurements of the same kind, check what each one actually represents:

  • Early-universe inference or late-universe distance measurement? A CMB result uses a cosmological model to infer today’s rate; a local distance-ladder result builds outward from calibrated distances.
  • Which observable and calibrator? Look for Cepheids, the red-giant-branch tip, supernovae, BAO, CMB patterns, lens time delays, or gravitational waves.
  • Which data release and publication year? Measurements and analyses change; the 2024 Particle Data Group values above are a dated comparison, not a complete inventory of current results.
  • What kind of uncertainty is quoted? Keep statistical and systematic uncertainties distinct when both are given, and preserve asymmetric ranges rather than reducing them to a single symmetric error.
  • What assumptions connect the data to H0? This is especially important for CMB fits and BAO-based inverse ladders, where a model or calibration links the observed signal to today’s expansion rate.

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