NASA does not pick between Starliner and Crew Dragon as though both are equally ready for every International Space Station crew rotation. The first hurdle is certification: NASA must determine that a spacecraft and its transportation system meet agency safety and performance requirements for carrying astronauts. NASA’s current published status is that Crew Dragon is certified and flying crew missions, while Starliner is still working toward certification. Once a vehicle clears that gate, technical readiness and the station’s operational schedule also matter. NASA has not published a numerical score or a fixed formula for assigning missions.
NASA’s first decision is whether a spacecraft is certified
Certification is the threshold between a vehicle NASA may use for routine astronaut transportation and one that is still being evaluated. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program sets safety and performance requirements, and the agency certifies a provider’s transportation system against them before astronaut missions. Certification is not simply a judgment that a spacecraft completed one flight; it is NASA’s determination that the system meets the requirements for the intended crew-transport role.
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That distinction explains why a planned Starliner mission or a contract allocation does not, by itself, mean the spacecraft is cleared to carry a crew. NASA’s FY 2027 budget estimates say Starliner was working to resolve anomalies from its Crew Flight Test and complete NASA certification. The NASA Office of Inspector General’s June 30, 2026 summary likewise reports that Starliner remained uncertified after three flight tests identified unexpected issues with differing levels of mission risk.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteBy contrast, the OIG says NASA certified Crew Dragon in 2020. It reported that Dragon had flown 12 crewed missions to and from the station since certification as of its June 2026 summary. That is a dated OIG count, not a live total, and it describes demonstrated operational history rather than a score that automatically determines every future assignment.
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What NASA considers after certification
NASA’s public material supports a practical decision framework rather than a disclosed ranking formula. Certification establishes that a provider has met requirements; a particular mission still has to be technically and operationally ready and fit the station’s needs. Relevant considerations include:
- Safety and performance compliance: whether NASA has certified the transportation system for crew missions.
- Technical and mission readiness: whether the vehicle, its systems, and the mission-specific work are ready for the planned flight.
- ISS operations and timing: how a crew rotation fits station operations, resupply flights, and other schedule demands.
- Operational experience: the history of completed missions, interpreted with dates and context rather than as a guarantee of future performance.
- Provider resilience: the value of retaining two distinct ways to transport crews to low Earth orbit.
These factors are not interchangeable. A vehicle’s certification status is a gate, while schedule fit and readiness help determine whether a particular mission can proceed when planned. A target date, a contract mission, or a future flight plan is not proof that all those conditions have been met.
Why NASA chose Crew Dragon for current U.S. crew transport
The direct reason is status: in NASA’s FY 2027 budget request, Crew Dragon was providing U.S. crew transportation to the ISS, alongside Russia’s Soyuz, while Starliner was still working through anomaly resolution and certification. NASA’s OIG described Dragon as certified and Starliner as uncertified in its June 2026 summary. In that context, Dragon was the available certified U.S. system for crew transport; the public record does not present the situation as a fresh contest between two equally cleared vehicles before each rotation.
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This does not establish that NASA has judged Dragon superior on every design, cost, or capacity measure. The sources do not disclose a public, weighted comparison of the two spacecraft or show that any single factor—such as price or vehicle capacity—alone decides assignments. The evidence supports the narrower conclusion that certification and current readiness explain the present difference in their roles.
Starliner’s status and what its future missions depend on
NASA’s FY 2027 budget estimates describe Starliner-1 as a cargo mission intended to validate system upgrades after the June 2024 Crew Flight Test. The budget document says Boeing was working to resolve Crew Flight Test anomalies and complete certification. Because that description is a status statement in a budget request, it should not be read as confirmation that the cargo mission, certification, or a later crew flight has since taken place.
NASA’s November 24, 2025 contract update set out a conditional path for future crew rotations: Starliner would need to be certified and complete a successful Starliner-1 mission. Under the plan described in that update, Starliner would then fly up to three crew rotations. NASA reduced Boeing’s definitive order to four missions, with two additional missions available as options. These are the contract terms and conditional plan reported on that date, not a record of completed Starliner crew rotations.
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NASA Commercial Crew Program manager Steve Stich summarized the plan in that November 2025 update: “This modification allows NASA and Boeing to focus on safely certifying the system in 2026, execute Starliner’s first crew rotation when ready, and align our ongoing flight planning for future Starliner missions based on station’s operational needs through 2030.” The wording describes NASA’s plan at the time; it does not establish that certification or a crew rotation occurred in 2026.
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A crew spacecraft has to fit into a functioning orbital laboratory’s schedule. NASA’s October 15, 2024 commercial crew plan said rotations were planned around ISS needs, resupply flights, station operations, and operational readiness. That plan is useful for understanding the kinds of constraints involved, but it is historical planning context rather than a current flight schedule.
NASA’s November 2025 Boeing update said future Starliner planning would align with station needs through 2030. Taken together, the agency’s statements show why a contract’s list of missions cannot be treated as a simple launch calendar: NASA has to coordinate crew transport with station operations and with a vehicle’s actual readiness. A date in a plan remains contingent where certification, testing, or mission readiness is still outstanding.
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Why NASA wants a second, different crew spacecraft
Maintaining two providers is a resilience strategy, not merely a way to divide flight assignments. NASA says Starliner certification remains important to sustained human presence in low Earth orbit, and describes dissimilar redundancy as essential to agency goals and international obligations. If a provider or vehicle is unavailable, having another distinct transportation system can help preserve access to the station.
NASA’s September 18, 2026 award announcement also framed its SpaceX contract arrangement as a way to maintain access to the ISS with two unique commercial crew partners. The rationale is therefore broader than which vehicle gets the next rotation: NASA values having more than one provider capable of carrying out the task. That strategic goal does not remove the certification gate or mean an uncertified vehicle can be assigned a crew mission before it is ready.
What the contracts and numbers do—and do not—show
| Published figure or term | What it refers to | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| 12 crewed missions | NASA OIG’s June 30, 2026 summary of Crew Dragon flights to and from the station since its 2020 certification. | A dated count from the OIG summary, not a current running total or a comparative performance score. |
| 17 missions under the SpaceX contract | NASA’s September 18, 2026 announcement said the added Crew-15, Crew-16, and Crew-17 missions brought the contract total to 17. | A contract total, not a count of missions already flown. |
| $946 million | The value NASA stated for the September 2026 modification covering three missions and related services. | The value of that specific modification; it does not establish that price alone determines mission assignments. |
| Up to three Starliner crew rotations | The conditional plan in NASA’s November 24, 2025 Boeing contract update, after certification and a successful Starliner-1. | A future, conditional plan in that dated update, not completed flights. |
NASA’s FY 2027 budget request also describes Commercial Crew as using milestone-based contracts: requirements are defined up front, and a partner is paid when milestones are successfully completed. NASA identified the September 2026 SpaceX modification as firm-fixed-price, but neither fact reveals a public formula for choosing a spacecraft for a specific rotation. Contract structure, mission count, and assignment criteria are related parts of program management, not interchangeable evidence.
Is there a public NASA scorecard for choosing Dragon over Starliner?
No numerical scorecard, weighted comparison, or complete internal mission-assignment algorithm appears in the NASA and OIG sources cited here. NASA has explained the requirements, milestone-based contracting, readiness conditions, station-planning considerations, and strategic value of redundancy, but it has not publicly assigned percentages to safety, cost, schedule, operational history, or other factors for each flight.
That means claims such as “NASA picks the cheapest spacecraft,” “the spacecraft with the most capacity always gets the mission,” or “NASA uses a published point system” go beyond the available public evidence. The responsible answer is qualitative: certification determines whether a system is eligible for crew missions, readiness and ISS needs shape scheduling, and maintaining two dissimilar providers is a longer-term objective. NASA has not published how it weights those considerations against one another in a specific assignment.
How to read a future Starliner or Dragon announcement
When NASA announces a mission, distinguish among a contract award, a planned flight, a successful test, certification, and an assigned operational mission. Each describes a different milestone. For Starliner in particular, the plan NASA described in November 2025 made future crew rotations dependent on both certification and a successful Starliner-1; an announced target or contract option should not be mistaken for completion of those conditions.
For current status, the most recent sources in this account are NASA’s FY 2027 budget estimates and the OIG’s June 2026 program summary, updated September 24, 2026. They describe Crew Dragon as certified and transporting U.S. crews, and Starliner as still working through the steps toward certification. Later flights, certification decisions, or contract changes could alter that comparison, so older target dates should remain attached to the plan that announced them rather than be repeated as current facts.
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