Google_SAI-FluEns ranked first among individual team submissions in the CDC’s 2025–2026 FluSight evaluation of flu-related hospital-admission forecasts. The CDC FluSight ensemble ranked seventh overall, so the result shows that Google’s model led the individual-submission ranking—not that it replaced the CDC’s ensemble or outperformed it in every respect.
What did the CDC evaluate?
The CDC invited academic, industry and government teams to submit weekly forecasts of influenza hospital admissions. Forecasts covered the current week and up to three weeks ahead for the United States, individual states, Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C.
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The submission period ran from November 2025 through May 20, 2026. The final target data used to score forecasts were published July 1, 2026; the evaluation was published September 30, 2026. The CDC counted 53 unique models from 34 teams, of which 39 met the evaluation’s inclusion criteria. Models included statistical, mechanistic, AI or machine-learning, and ensemble approaches. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, FluSight 2025–2026 Evaluation, September 30, 2026.)
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How did Google’s model compare with the CDC ensemble?
| Entry | Evaluation result | What the result means |
|---|---|---|
| Google_SAI-FluEns | First among individual team submissions | Top-ranked individual team model in this evaluation. |
| CDC FluSight ensemble | Seventh overall | The ensemble used in public forecast messaging remained a separate entry in the model comparison. |
| Eligible models overall | 39 models; 33 beat the baseline | Many submissions performed better than the simple reference forecast, not only the top-ranked model. |
The rankings answer different questions: Google’s result identifies the leading individual team submission, while the CDC ensemble’s seventh-place result describes its position in the overall comparison. The evaluation does not establish that one approach is best for every forecast horizon, place or stage of the season.
#1 Best Overall
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What does “relative WIS” measure?
The primary score was relative weighted interval score, or relative WIS. It assesses how well a forecast’s prediction intervals align with the observed admission counts, including both the accuracy and uncertainty represented by those intervals. The score was calculated against a baseline that simply carried forward the previous week’s admission count.
- Lower relative WIS is better.
- A score below 1 beats the carry-forward baseline.
- Interval coverage is a separate check. The CDC also assessed 50% and 95% prediction-interval coverage: how often the corresponding intervals contained the eventual observed value.
A model’s rank or season-wide score is not, by itself, a guarantee that its estimates will be well calibrated for every state or forecast week. Geographic consistency, forecast completeness and eligibility, interval coverage, and performance during rapid rises or declines all matter when interpreting a comparison.
Rank #2
- FDA Authorized 15-Minute Flu A&B, COVID Test Kit: Over-the-counter flu and COVID test for home use with rapid results in just 15 minutes.
- Made for Ages 2 and Above; Parents Can Stop Guessing: Quickly identify whether you or your kids are dealing with coronavirus or influenza A & B. Adult-collection is required for those aged 2-13 years, and self-collection by individuals aged 14 years and older.
- Same Ease-of-Use; Get 3 Results in 1 Test: Utilizing the familiar 4 user-friendly steps of at-home COVID tests, you can now get all 3 results for COVID-19 and Flu A & B at once with 5 drops of sample.
- Fast and Convenient COVID and Flu Tests for Home: Use this COVID and influenza rapid test kit in the comfort of your home. Bypass the need for a doctor's visit and protect your loved ones from potential exposure to contagious illnesses at school, work, or public gatherings.
- Compact Design for On-the-Go Testing: Stay safe wherever you go with our COVID-19, Flu A & B 3-in-1 self-test. Its compact design ensures easy storage and convenient portability for your travel bag.
How difficult was the 2025–2026 flu season to forecast?
The CDC characterized the U.S. season as moderate. Admissions began rising in mid-November 2025, and the national peak occurred in the week ending December 27, 2025; the highest weekly number of admissions exceeded 40,000, according to the CDC’s 2026 evaluation.
The report highlights a turning-point problem for the CDC ensemble: its 50% and 95% intervals did not anticipate the late-December increase or the mid-January decline. Coverage later stabilized near 95% starting in February 2026. This illustrates why an overall score across a season does not necessarily tell a public-health team how much warning a forecast will provide just before a sudden change.
Rank #3
- 3-In-1 Flu A B And COVID-19 Test Kit: Designed to check for multiple respiratory targets in one test, allowing users to complete a single test instead of using separate kits at home.
- Simple At-Home Testing Process: Step-by-step format with nasal swab, buffer tube, and test cassette designed for straightforward use during everyday situations when testing is needed.
- Quick Results In About 10 Minutes: Provides results in a short timeframe, making it a convenient Covid home test to use before travel, or gatherings.
- Designed For Family Use Ages 2 And Up: Suitable for a wide range of users, including adults and children, making it a practical option for shared household use.
- Compact Single-Test Kit For On-Demand Use: The portable design on these covid tests allows for easy storage in a drawer, bag, or travel kit for quick access when needed.
Does this prove AI can forecast health emergencies better?
No. It is evidence that one Google-developed model performed especially well in this particular comparison of influenza hospital-admission forecasts for one U.S. season. The evaluation does not establish that the method will generalize to other pathogens, seasons, countries or health systems, or that AI models will consistently outperform statistical, mechanistic or ensemble methods.
Google Research says its forecasts were developed using Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), an AI tool that generates optimization algorithms across scientific fields. That describes Google’s stated development approach; the CDC evaluation scores forecast submissions and does not independently establish ERA’s contribution or validate its use beyond this influenza forecasting task. (Zahra Shamsi, Google Research, September 30, 2026; CDC, September 30, 2026.)
Rank #4
- 3-in-1 Multiplex Detection: Detects SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, and Influenza B antigens from a single anterior nasal swab sample.
- Designed for Symptomatic Testing: Intended for individuals experiencing symptoms of respiratory infection within the first 5 days of symptom onset.
- Simple Nasal Swab Collection: Uses a short anterior nasal swab sample with step-by-step instructions included in the kit.
- Fast Results in 10 Minutes: Provides results in approximately 10 minutes when used according to the instructions for use.
- 10 minute accuracy —why wait 15? With our rapid testing kit, get peace of mind in 10 minutes and precise results without the extra wait. Proven higher PPA than major competitors, based on IFUs.
What should readers take away?
Google’s model led the individual-team ranking, while the CDC’s operational ensemble placed seventh overall. The comparison used relative WIS alongside prediction-interval coverage across 39 eligible models. Its results are meaningful for the season and forecasts evaluated, but turning points exposed a practical limitation: strong aggregate performance does not guarantee reliable early warning at every moment.
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