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World desk3 min

Drax data centre emissions estimate: could it nearly double Gatwick’s flight emissions?

NRDC’s estimate for a proposed Drax data centre is nearly twice Gatwick’s reported 2024 flight emissions, but it assumes continuous operation and is disputed by Drax.
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A proposed data centre at Drax Power Station could produce an estimated 8.6 million tonnes of CO2 a year—nearly twice the 4.79 million tonnes attributed to all flights at Gatwick in 2024. Those figures come from an estimate by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), reported by The Guardian on 6 October 2026. The data centre is not operating: the estimate assumes it runs continuously at a constant rate, and Drax disputes its assumptions.

What the “nearly twice” comparison says

NRDC estimated that the proposed facility could use 4.9 million tonnes of wood a year and produce 8.6 million tonnes of CO2 annually. The Guardian reported that estimate alongside 4.79 million tonnes of CO2 from all flights at Gatwick in 2024. On those figures, the projected data-centre total is about 1.8 times Gatwick’s reported figure.

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The numbers are not a like-for-like measurement. One is a modeled annual scenario for a future facility; the other is a reported total for flights in a past calendar year. The NRDC estimate assumes constant, year-round operation. The comparison also concerns the stated CO2 figures, not every climate effect of aviation.

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The Guardian said NRDC based its estimate on information in Drax’s 2025 annual report. The underlying NRDC calculation and Gatwick’s original emissions inventory were not separately available for verification here, so the figures should be treated as attributed estimates and reporting, not as an independently audited comparison. The Guardian’s report gives the claim and its comparison.

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What Drax plans to build

Drax’s 26 February 2026 full-year results describe development options for a data centre on the scale of 1.2GW, with an initial goal of 100MW from 2027. Drax says that goal depends on necessary consents, a full assessment of capital costs and the investment case, and agreement on commercial and development structures. Its data-centre project page describes a planning application in development for a potential facility of approximately 100MW, with an ambition to grow beyond 1GW after 2031.

These are proposals and development goals, not confirmation that a data centre has been approved, built or begun operating. The headline estimate concerns a possible future facility, not emissions already being produced by a Drax data centre.

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Why the estimate is disputed

Drax’s spokesperson rejected NRDC’s calculation, describing its assertions as inaccurate and not independently verified. Drax also argued that the calculation relies on errors about international greenhouse-gas accounting standards for biomass and the data centre’s potential power mix. That is Drax’s response; it does not, on its own, establish that the estimate is wrong.

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A central issue is how emissions from burning biomass are accounted for, including whether and when regrowth of forests can offset the carbon released. The Guardian reported that scientists and environmental experts contest this accounting approach. It also cited a timeframe of 150 years for some biomass systems to become carbon negative. The report text does not identify the study behind that figure, and it should not be treated as a universal timeline for all biomass systems.

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The available figures do not settle the detailed accounting methodology, the role of the data centre’s eventual power mix, or how regrowth and lifecycle effects are treated. Those questions matter when judging how the projected facility’s emissions should be compared with an airport’s reported flight emissions.

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What the comparison does—and does not—establish

  • It establishes an attributed estimate, not an operating result: NRDC’s reported scenario is 8.6 million tonnes of CO2 a year, based on estimated annual wood use of 4.9 million tonnes and constant year-round operation.
  • It gives a historical reference point: Gatwick’s reported figure is 4.79 million tonnes of CO2 from flights in 2024.
  • It does not prove the two totals use identical accounting boundaries: the underlying calculation and airport inventory were not separately examined, and the biomass accounting is disputed.
  • It does not mean the proposed facility is certain to be built: Drax describes development ambitions conditional on planning and other requirements.

Matt Williams, an NRDC senior advocate, called the proposed facility “one of the dirtiest datacentres out there”; Oliver Hayes, head of policy at Global Action Plan, said: “Burning millions of trees to power server farms is indefensible.” The Guardian reported both remarks. They express the advocates’ positions rather than independently verify the emissions estimate.

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