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Short answer: China does not yet publish a final, named list of AI models or agents banned from export. As of 20 October 2026, the 16 October catalog is only a public-consultation draft. It proposes capability-, provenance- and use-based controls for large models, intelligent agents, compute clusters and information-processing technologies.
The clearest operative controls are the 2025 dual-use rules. They cover specified Chinese-origin items, some foreign-made products containing at least 0.1% value of listed Chinese-origin items, and products made abroad with Chinese rare-earth technologies. Case-by-case review applies to certain advanced chips, manufacturing equipment, materials and AI research with possible military use. Whether a transaction is prohibited, licensed or outside the technology-export scope depends on the item, transfer method, destination, end user and end use.
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What is actually in force on 20 October 2026?
Two different instruments must be kept separate.
The operative 2025 dual-use measures
China’s 2025 dual-use controls are the current legal baseline. They regulate specified Chinese-origin items and can also reach:
- Foreign-made items containing at least 0.1% value of listed Chinese-origin items.
- Items manufactured outside China using Chinese rare-earth technologies.
For covered items, authorities assess the exporter, destination, end user and end use. Case-by-case review applies when the transaction involves 14-nanometer-or-below logic-chip development or production, 256-layer-or-above memory chips, related manufacturing or testing equipment, relevant materials, or AI research that could have military applications. Military users, listed control or concern entities, weapons-of-mass-destruction activities, terrorism and military end uses are generally not licensed.
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The 16 October 2026 catalog draft
The Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology published a public-consultation draft revising China’s prohibited/restricted technology catalog on 16 October 2026. It proposes adding 40 technologies across artificial intelligence, biomedicine and photovoltaics. Twenty-three of the proposed additions concern AI. Across the three sectors, the ministry describes 14 proposed prohibitions and 26 proposed restrictions.
This is not a final catalog. No final model list, agent list, product list or complete technical-threshold schedule has been issued. Until a final catalog and implementing rules appear, it is inaccurate to say that a particular named model is definitively banned or requires a license solely because it is mentioned in media coverage.
Which Chinese AI models are covered?
The draft uses technology categories and indicators rather than publishing model names. Its proposed approach looks at capability and provenance, not simply the country associated with a model brand.
Capability indicators
Associated reporting on the proposal says it could reach models with 2 trillion or more parameters or models described as having “world-leading capabilities.” Those are reported indicators of the proposal, not a final, operative threshold. The public ministry explanation does not provide a complete test for what counts as world-leading capability, nor does it state how parameter counts would be measured across dense, mixture-of-experts or fine-tuned systems.
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Provenance and sensitive data
The proposal also identifies core technologies for models trained on sensitive national data as a possible prohibited category. That means the training data, underlying technology and transfer of know-how can matter even when a model’s public parameter count is below a headline threshold.
Why media examples are not a legal list
Media reports have used Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max as examples of models that might fit the proposal’s indicators. The draft itself does not name those models. Treating them as banned, licensed or otherwise covered today would overstate the text. The accurate formulation is: the draft sets capability and provenance criteria; it does not publish a definitive list of covered model names.
Does China restrict exporting model weights?
Exporting weights can constitute a transfer of model technology, but the legal result depends on whether the weights or associated technology fall within the final prohibited or restricted categories and whether the transaction transfers restricted technology from China to an overseas recipient. The October draft does not yet publish a definitive weight-file threshold or a named-model schedule.
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A direct transfer of weights, source code, training methods, architectural know-how or a localized deployment package should therefore be analyzed as a potential technology export rather than assumed to be an ordinary software sale. The exporter should classify the technology against the final catalog when issued, document the destination and end use, and seek a dual-use license when the applicable list requires one.
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Which chips and compute infrastructure trigger controls?
Current technical baseline
The 2025 dual-use measures provide the most concrete current thresholds:
| Item or activity | Current treatment | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Logic-chip development or production at 14 nm or below | Case-by-case review for covered end uses | Military and other prohibited end uses are generally not licensed. |
| Memory chips at 256 layers or above | Case-by-case review for covered end uses | The threshold applies to the specified memory technology in the operative measures. |
| Manufacturing and testing equipment for those chips | Case-by-case review when covered | Product classification and end-use analysis are required. |
| Materials used to make those chips | Case-by-case review when covered | The rule is not limited to finished chips. |
| AI research with potential military use | Case-by-case review | Military end uses and listed prohibited parties are generally refused. |
What the 2026 draft adds
The draft proposes controls touching AI compute clusters and information-processing technologies. The ministry’s public explanation does not provide a complete product-level inventory or final technical thresholds for clusters, accelerators, networking, storage or assembled systems. Do not treat a particular server configuration or accelerator count as automatically controlled without checking the final catalog and implementing guidance.
Foreign-made equipment and technology content
A product does not necessarily escape the Chinese rules merely because final assembly occurs overseas. The operative measures address certain foreign-made items containing at least 0.1% value of listed Chinese-origin items and items made abroad using Chinese rare-earth technologies. The percentage is a stated value threshold for the specified category, not a universal rule for every product containing any Chinese component.
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The draft includes intelligent-agent technologies among its AI categories. The ministry’s explanation points especially to agents designed for national defense or critical information infrastructure. Coverage turns on the technology and intended deployment, not on whether a vendor uses the marketing word “agent.”
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What counts as an agent under China’s 2026 guidance?
China’s May 2026 official agent guidelines describe an agent as a system combining autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction and execution. Those capabilities distinguish an agentic system from a model that only generates a response to a single prompt. The guidelines call for safety, security, standards and protocols; they do not, by themselves, create a named export-ban list.
High-risk deployments
An agent connected to defense operations, command functions, weapons-related workflows or critical information infrastructure presents a substantially different export question from a general-purpose assistant used for low-risk office work. The draft records 19 typical AI-agent application scenarios, but it does not publish a complete transaction-by-transaction licensing table for those scenarios.
Does providing an API or SaaS deployment export the model?
The ministry’s draft-era explanation focuses on whether restricted technology is transferred from China to an overseas location. It distinguishes a technology transfer from remote access to a service.
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|---|---|---|
| Transfer of weights, source code, training technology or a localized technology package | Potential transfer of restricted technology from China to overseas | Analyze under the technology-export catalog and licensing rules. |
| API calls to a service hosted in China | Described as outside the large-model technology-export scope in the draft-era explanation | Recheck the final catalog and implementing rules; service operation can still raise separate data, cybersecurity or sector obligations. |
| Web or app interaction with the model | Described as outside that large-model technology-export scope | This does not convert a prohibited end use into a permitted one. |
| SaaS access | Described as outside that scope | Confirm where restricted technology is hosted and whether the arrangement includes a technology transfer. |
| Lightweight local edge deployment | Described as outside the large-model technology-export scope in the draft-era guidance | Classification depends on what software, weights and technical know-how are delivered locally. |
The distinction is not a blanket safe harbor. The ministry says the core question is whether restricted technology is transferred from inside China to outside China. A contract labeled “API,” “SaaS” or “cloud” should not be used to conceal a delivery of weights, source code or technical documentation.
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How end users and end uses change the answer
China’s controls are not determined by the object alone. The same model, chip or tool can receive different treatment depending on who receives it and what the recipient intends to do.
- Military users and military end uses: generally not licensed under the operative dual-use measures.
- Weapons-of-mass-destruction activities and terrorism: generally prohibited for licensing purposes.
- Listed control or concern entities: receive the strictest treatment under the dual-use framework.
- Defense and critical information infrastructure: are specifically sensitive contexts in the draft’s agent discussion.
- Civilian, low-risk research or commercial use: may still require classification and a license if the item or technology is listed, but the available data does not establish an automatic approval.
End-use statements should identify the actual application, connected systems, final destination and parties with access. A vague description such as “research” is not enough when the project could support military operations or sensitive infrastructure.
Scenario guide: what action is indicated?
| Scenario | Legal status on 20 October 2026 | Likely action |
|---|---|---|
| Named Chinese model cited in media, with no final catalog entry | Not established as banned | Do not label it prohibited; monitor the final catalog and assess its technology and provenance. |
| Direct overseas transfer of technology for a model that falls in a final restricted category | Potentially controlled | Apply through the Ministry of Commerce dual-use licensing system when required. |
| 14-nm-or-below logic-chip production equipment | Operative case-by-case review when covered | Classify the equipment, destination, end user and end use before shipment. |
| 256-layer-or-above memory technology | Operative case-by-case review when covered | Prepare technical specifications and end-use documentation. |
| Agent intended for national defense | Draft-sensitive category; final criteria not published | Use heightened review and do not assume exportability. |
| API access without transfer of weights or source technology | Described as outside the draft’s large-model technology-export scope | Verify hosting, data flows and the final rules before relying on this treatment. |
Exporter compliance checklist
Organizations should build a file that can show how they reached their classification and licensing decision.
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- Classify the item or technology. Check the current dual-use lists and, once issued, the final 2026 prohibited/restricted technology catalog. Record whether the transaction concerns a model, weights, source code, agent, chip, equipment, material, compute cluster or service.
- Map the parties and route. Identify the exporter, importer, final destination, end user, intermediaries, hosting location and every party that will receive technical access.
- Describe the end use precisely. State the application, connected infrastructure and whether the work could support defense, military operations, critical information infrastructure, weapons of mass destruction or terrorism.
- Apply for a license when required. Use the Ministry of Commerce dual-use licensing system and prepare the required documents in Chinese. The applicable process is case-by-case for the advanced-chip and specified AI-research situations described above.
- Declare the final destination. Do not route a controlled item through an intermediary to obscure its actual recipient or use.
- Issue the required compliance notice. The operative measures require the exporter to provide the prescribed notice to the importer or end user.
- Handle humanitarian exceptions correctly. Where an exception applies, follow the post-export reporting and non-diversion commitments rather than treating the exception as unrestricted permission.
- Monitor the final catalog. The consultation draft may change. Update model, agent, chip and compute classifications when the final text and implementing rules are published.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Calling a draft a ban. The October 2026 catalog is not final, so a media example is not a legal designation.
- Using brand names as the classification. Capability, provenance, technology type and intended use matter more than the model’s marketing name.
- Checking only finished chips. The operative thresholds also reach development and production, manufacturing and test equipment, and materials.
- Assuming overseas assembly removes Chinese controls. The 0.1% value rule and Chinese rare-earth-technology provision can reach specified foreign-made items.
- Treating API access as a universal exemption. The ministry’s statement concerns the scope of large-model technology export; it does not authorize prohibited end uses or a hidden transfer of weights and know-how.
- Ignoring the final user. Military, terrorism, weapons-of-mass-destruction and listed-entity checks can determine the outcome even when the item is otherwise commercially available.
What to watch next
The decisive next document is the final prohibited/restricted technology catalog after the public consultation closes. It should clarify whether the proposal’s capability indicators become binding thresholds, how model provenance is tested, which agent and compute technologies are listed, and what licensing pathway applies to each category. Until then, companies should treat the 2025 dual-use measures as operative, apply heightened diligence to the draft’s AI categories and preserve records showing how they distinguished a technology transfer from API or SaaS access.
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