Bitcoin can rise while US Treasury yields climb, but that does not mean higher yields caused the rally—or that Bitcoin reliably hedges bonds. The title’s 84% gain depends on the exact January 2024 and October 2026 price observations; the available source pages do not verify that calculation. The more useful answer is that Bitcoin’s relationship with rates has been weak or variable, and the reasons yields move can matter more than the yield level alone.
What does the 84% figure actually measure?
A percentage return requires two dated Bitcoin prices from the same source. “Since January 2024” does not specify whether the starting observation is January 1, a later daily close, or an intraday quote; the October 2026 endpoint also needs a precise date and price basis. The material available for this article does not establish matched prices, so 84% should be treated as a headline claim rather than a verified return.
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To check it, select a BTC/USD source and consistent observations—such as UTC daily closes on specified dates—and calculate (ending price ÷ starting price − 1) × 100. Bitcoin spot has no dividend component. Do not compare its spot-price gain with a bond’s yield as though both were the same kind of return: a Treasury yield is not the bond’s price return or total return.
How can Bitcoin and Treasury yields rise at the same time?
There is no rule that they must move in opposite directions. A Treasury yield is the market yield on government debt; Bitcoin’s price reflects its own demand, liquidity, positioning and other influences. Over a selected period, forces supporting Bitcoin can outweigh any pressure associated with higher yields. Co-occurrence alone does not show that one asset caused the other’s move.
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The reason yields rise can change the market effect
A rise associated with stronger growth expectations is not the same market backdrop as one associated with tighter financial conditions, stress, a stronger dollar or changing demand for Treasuries. Each can coincide with different investor appetite for risk and liquidity. Those are possible channels, not a reliable one-step rule for predicting Bitcoin from the 10-year yield.
Bitcoin can also move with broader risk appetite
Historical estimates point to a more substantial, though still sample-dependent, relationship with equities than with Treasury yields. A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper published in August 2026 reports that Bitcoin’s equity exposure rose over time and became statistically positive around 2020, while its estimated betas to 10-year Treasury bond returns were not distinguishable from zero. The authors find exposure to the broad Dow Jones index more robust than a distinct Nasdaq exposure after controls. The paper is unedited, and its authors say its views and errors are their responsibility, not necessarily those of the Chicago Fed or Federal Reserve System. Read the working paper.
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What historical evidence says about rates, equities and Bitcoin
Different studies use different samples and measures, so their figures should not be read as current or forward-looking correlations.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →| Relationship examined | Reported finding | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin and changes in the US 10-year Treasury yield | S&P Global Market Intelligence reports a correlation of 0.03 since 2013. | Near-neutral in that historical sample; it does not prove no relationship in every period or establish causation. |
| Bitcoin and S&P 500 daily returns | S&P Global reports 0.14 since January 2014 and 0.38 since 2020. | The relationship was stronger in the later sample, but these are sample-specific historical figures. |
| Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury yields | Charles Schwab describes historically little correlation; its displayed chart data end December 31, 2025. | This is not an October 2026 correlation estimate. Schwab notes that rate shifts may also affect Bitcoin indirectly through the dollar. |
S&P Global’s analysis cautions that Bitcoin’s risk-on behavior can undermine its use as a dependable inflation hedge. Schwab’s discussion likewise distinguishes limited historical rate correlation from possible short-term indirect effects. Neither result makes Bitcoin a dependable hedge against bonds, inflation or rate moves.
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Why a short-term rally may not reveal a durable rate relationship
Positioning can amplify a move independently of any lasting macro relationship. In its reporting on an August 2026 episode, the Associated Press said a Treasury announcement about increased buybacks coincided with falling yields and a weaker dollar as Bitcoin broke above a range. It also reported short sellers buying back positions as prices rose, with more than $4 billion of bearish crypto positions liquidated by Friday. That episode illustrates a possible combination of market forces; it does not show that Treasury buybacks generally cause Bitcoin rallies. Read the Associated Press report.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare Bitcoin with a Treasury yield correctly
If the question is whether rates rose over the same period as Bitcoin, choose one Treasury measure and report its dated observations separately from Bitcoin’s return. For the 10-year constant-maturity US Treasury market yield, FRED series DGS10 is quoted on an investment basis. Name the start and end observation dates, then express the change in percentage points or basis points—not as a bond investment return. See the FRED DGS10 series definition.
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For context, an October 7, 2026 Investing.com article reported that Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 that day after three rejections near $87,000 since September 23. It also reported that the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 closed at records on October 6, that Bitcoin rose more than 40% from a June 30 low just below $59,000, and that the 10-year yield gained 87.1 basis points in the third quarter—described in that article as its sharpest quarterly rise since 1994. These are Investing.com’s reported figures, including a yield statistic it attributed to Reuters, rather than independently checked observations here. The snapshot helps show how different comparisons can coexist; it does not verify the title’s 84% calculation. Read the October 7 Investing.com analysis.
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