Yes, but only under a narrow, certification-based exception. Google Ads currently permits qualifying prediction-market advertising in the United States, excluding Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. The advertiser must hold the right regulator authorization, comply with state and federal law, satisfy Google’s gambling and advertising rules, obtain Google certification and apply separately for each target location. A campaign that is lawful in its home jurisdiction can still be rejected if the account, landing page, product or geographic targeting does not meet those conditions.
What Google means by a prediction-market advertisement
Google’s Prediction Markets policy covers platforms that list, or give customers access to, exchange-listed event contracts tied to economics, sports or current events. An event contract is a financial product whose value depends on an outcome, such as an economic release or sporting result. The policy is about the product and the advertiser’s authorization, not merely the words used in an ad.
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Google treats eligibility as a cumulative test. The advertiser must have every applicable financial, commodity and/or gaming licence; obey local law; comply with other Google Ads policies; target an approved location; and pass Google’s certification process. Missing one element is enough for disapproval. Certification is platform permission to advertise, not a government licence and not a legal opinion about the product.
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When marketers ask whether prediction-market advertising is legal, they often combine three different questions:
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- Is the product lawful? Federal, state, provincial or national regulators decide this under financial, commodity, gaming, consumer-protection and advertising laws.
- Is the advertiser authorized? The operator or brokerage must hold the licences and registrations that apply to its business model.
- Will Google accept the campaign? Google applies its own location, certification, content, landing-page and account rules.
Google’s approval answers only the third question. An approved campaign can still violate local law if the advertiser targets a state, audience or product that its authorization does not cover.
Where prediction-market ads may be targeted
As of October 20, 2026, Google’s approved target list for prediction-market advertising is the United States, excluding Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. The four excluded states are not eligible targets under this policy even if an advertiser believes its product is permitted there under another legal theory.
| Target area | Google policy status | What the advertiser must do |
|---|---|---|
| United States (states other than Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio) | Approved market, subject to licensing and certification | Hold the required authorization, complete Google certification, comply with local law and gambling safeguards, and submit the location-specific application. |
| Michigan | Excluded | Do not target users there under the Prediction Markets policy. |
| Nevada | Excluded | Do not target users there under the Prediction Markets policy. |
| New York | Excluded | Do not target users there under the Prediction Markets policy. |
| Ohio | Excluded | Do not target users there under the Prediction Markets policy. |
| Any country outside the approved list | Not approved | Google says applications are unavailable for non-approved markets; do not assume a foreign licence creates eligibility. |
This is a Google policy geography, not a worldwide gambling-law map. For every state or country in a media plan, counsel or a qualified compliance team must independently check financial, commodity, gaming, consumer-protection and advertising rules. Google expressly makes local-law compliance part of eligibility.
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Google requires a separate application for each target location. Treat a US-wide plan as a collection of location approvals rather than one blanket permission. Maintain a state-level exclusion list so the four prohibited states cannot enter campaigns through broad “United States” targeting, audience expansion, location-interest settings or imported campaign templates.
Which US businesses can qualify?
For US prediction-market ads, Google identifies two qualifying advertiser categories. The distinction matters because a platform listing its own contracts is regulated differently from a brokerage that gives customers access to another exchange’s products.
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1. CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Market
The advertiser may be a Designated Contract Market authorized by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) whose primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts. This category is aimed at specialized economic- or sports-outcome markets operating as regulated exchanges. A company cannot rely on a generic financial-services description if it does not have the required DCM status and business focus.
2. NFA-authorized brokerage
The advertiser may instead be a brokerage authorized by the National Futures Association (NFA) that offers customers third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM. The brokerage must be properly authorized for that activity; simply referring users to an exchange, publishing market commentary or operating a lead-generation site does not meet the stated category.
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|---|---|---|
| Exchange operator listing its own event contracts | CFTC-authorized DCM; primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts | Current CFTC authorization, corporate identity, product scope and proof that the advertised contracts are exchange-listed. |
| Brokerage providing access to another exchange | NFA-authorized brokerage offering third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM | Current NFA authorization, the relationship to the qualifying DCM and the exact products and jurisdictions served. |
| Signals, tips or affiliate review publisher | Not an eligible prediction-market advertiser under the policy | No certification route for the prohibited content format; redesign the business and advertising purpose rather than submitting the same site again. |
Licences and authorizations must remain valid while certification is active. Google requires advertisers to notify it if an authorization expires, is suspended or is terminated. A renewal lapse is therefore both a regulatory problem and a certification-maintenance problem.
How Google certification works in practice
The exact application screen can change, but the decision process is predictable. Prepare the compliance record before submitting an application; incomplete or inconsistent information commonly leads to delay or rejection.
- Define the product. Document whether each advertised instrument is an exchange-listed event contract and whether it relates to economics, sports or current events. Separate those contracts from ordinary securities, casino games, binary options or other fixed-return products.
- Confirm the legal entity. Use the same legal name, domain, billing entity and regulator records throughout the Google Ads account and certification materials. Explain any parent, trade-name or subsidiary relationship.
- Prove the qualifying status. Provide current CFTC DCM evidence or NFA brokerage evidence, as applicable, and identify the qualifying DCM when the brokerage model is used.
- Map every target. List the individual US locations you intend to reach. Remove Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio before submission. Do not include countries outside the approved list.
- Audit local-law coverage. For each remaining target, record the financial, commodity, gaming, consumer-protection and advertising rules that apply, plus any age, disclosure or geo-fencing controls.
- Check the landing page. Make licensing information, responsible-gambling information, product terms, risk disclosures, age restrictions and contact details easy to find. The page must not promise guaranteed profit or obscure material conditions.
- Remove prohibited formats. Exclude binary options, digital options, all-or-nothing options, unregulated gambling offers and signal, tip or affiliate-broker-review content.
- Submit the location-specific certification. Apply for each target location separately and keep a copy of the submitted entity, licence and domain information.
- Monitor after approval. Recheck licences, domains, creatives, landing pages and geo settings whenever the campaign changes. Notify Google promptly if a licence expires, is suspended or is terminated.
Content Google prohibits or treats differently
Binary and fixed-return options
Google disallows binary options and similarly structured fixed-return contracts, including digital options and all-or-nothing options. Calling such a product a “prediction market” does not change its structure. If the customer receives a fixed payout based on a yes-or-no outcome and the product falls within Google’s prohibited options category, the ad is not rescued by a financial licence or by changing the creative wording.
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Unregulated online gambling
Online gambling markets that are not permitted as regulated prediction markets under applicable local law are prohibited. An operator cannot use prediction-market terminology to bypass gambling authorization, state restrictions or Google’s country-specific requirements.
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Informational and educational sites or blogs that provide trading signals, tips, speculative-trading information or affiliate broker reviews are listed as disallowed under the Prediction Markets policy. This is important for publishers: a site may discuss markets editorially, yet its paid campaign can still be rejected when the destination is primarily a signal service, tip sheet or affiliate review funnel.
Changing “sign up” to “learn more” does not cure a prohibited destination. The substance of the landing page, its monetization and the user journey matter.
Political and election markets
Political and election prediction-market advertising must also meet Google’s political-content and election-verification rules where those rules apply. Certification under the Prediction Markets policy does not waive political-ad requirements. Expect additional identity, disclosure, authorization or verification checks for election-related creative and targeting.
Gambling safeguards that apply even after certification
Google’s broader Gambling and games policy adds safeguards to any campaign that falls within gambling or gambling-promoting content:
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- Target only countries or locations approved for the relevant product and certification.
- Provide responsible-gambling information on the landing page.
- Do not target minors or design creative that appeals primarily to children.
- Meet the country-specific authorization and certification requirements that apply to online gambling.
- Keep claims accurate and avoid implying risk-free income, guaranteed winnings or effortless returns.
These controls affect account setup, audience definitions, ad copy and the destination page. A compliant exchange can still receive a disapproval if a campaign targets underage users, omits responsible-gambling information or uses a location setting that reaches a prohibited market.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why a prediction-market ad is disapproved
The advertiser is not in an eligible category
The most fundamental problem is status: the entity is neither a qualifying CFTC-authorized DCM nor an NFA-authorized brokerage giving access to a qualifying DCM. A marketing agency, publisher or unaffiliated affiliate cannot borrow a partner’s licence simply by linking to that partner.
The licence evidence is missing, stale or inconsistent
Discrepancies between the legal entity in regulator records, the Google Ads account, the website and the application can prevent verification. So can an expired, suspended or terminated authorization. Update the records and explain corporate relationships before reapplying.
The campaign reaches a prohibited location
Broad US targeting, location-interest targeting, audience expansion or an overlooked state bid adjustment can expose ads in Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio. Rebuild the location settings and verify the actual user-location report after launch.
The product looks like a prohibited option
Terms such as “fixed payout,” “all-or-nothing,” “digital option” or “binary” can describe a structure Google does not allow. Provide a precise product explanation and remove prohibited instruments from both the ad and the destination.
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The landing page is a signals or affiliate funnel
A review article, tip service, speculative-trading newsletter or affiliate comparison page is not transformed into an eligible prediction-market ad by adding a disclaimer. Use a compliant, first-party destination that accurately describes the regulated service, or do not advertise that content under this policy.
The page lacks responsible-gambling and age controls
Add clear responsible-gambling information, age restrictions and material terms. Ensure the creative and audience settings do not target minors. These are ongoing campaign requirements, not one-time application fields.
A compliance checklist for operators and agencies
- Is the advertiser a CFTC-authorized DCM with event-contract listing as its primary business, or an NFA-authorized brokerage providing access to a qualifying DCM?
- Are all financial, commodity and gaming licences required for each target current and verifiable?
- Does every advertised contract qualify as an exchange-listed event contract rather than a prohibited binary or fixed-return option?
- Are targets limited to the United States outside Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio?
- Has a separate Google application been completed for each target location?
- Does the landing page show responsible-gambling information and avoid minors?
- Is the destination free of signals, tips, speculative-trading information and affiliate broker reviews?
- Are political or election creatives subject to the additional verification rules that apply?
- Is there an internal owner responsible for notifying Google about licence expiration, suspension or termination?
- Can the team produce the same legal-entity, domain, licence and product information consistently across the account, ads and website?
What this means for common advertiser questions
Can I advertise a named prediction market such as Kalshi?
There is no automatic approval for any named operator. The operator must fit one of Google’s qualifying US categories, hold the required authorizations, advertise only eligible products, target approved locations and obtain certification. Check the current legal status and Google approval of that specific advertiser rather than relying on its brand recognition.
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Are prediction-market ads legal in my country?
Google’s current approved list is US-only, with four states excluded. Non-approved countries cannot be targeted under this policy. That does not decide whether the product is lawful under your national law; it means Google does not currently provide a certification path for those markets.
What licence does Google require?
For the US categories described by Google, the relevant status is CFTC authorization as a qualifying DCM or NFA authorization as a brokerage offering third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM. Other local licences may also be required, and Google requires all applicable financial, commodity and/or gaming licences.
Can a broker-review or signals site run Google Ads?
Not as an eligible prediction-market advertisement when the destination provides trading signals, tips, speculative-trading information or affiliate broker reviews. That content is specifically listed as disallowed under the policy.
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