Probably for several years, but not indefinitely—and no forecast can make that certain. Micron’s latest reported outlook expects memory demand to exceed supply in 2027 and 2028, with tighter conditions than in 2026. That is a company forecast, not a guarantee about the whole industry. The key distinction is that “memory” covers several products, and AI is increasing demand for more than one of them even as manufacturers work to add capacity.
Will AI demand for memory chips last?
AI data centers need memory and storage to feed processors and retain data. Micron says AI-related data-center growth has pushed demand for those products faster than it or the industry could increase supply. The company describes making supply-allocation decisions and seeing customers work harder to secure supply through longer-term commitments. That is Micron’s account of its own market conditions, not an independent measurement of global demand. Micron’s 2026 Form 10-K sets out that account.
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The clearest dated outlook comes from Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, as quoted by Tom’s Hardware in October 2026: “In calendar 2027 as well as 2028, we see demand exceeding supply.” Micron also expects tighter conditions in those years than in 2026. In the same report, the company forecast low-to-mid-20% annual growth in industry DRAM and NAND shipments over the following two years while still expecting supply constraints. Those are Micron forecasts, not settled outcomes or a promise that prices will keep rising. Tom’s Hardware’s report on Micron’s shortage outlook provides the attributed forecast.
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There is evidence that other major suppliers also see shortages, but the evidence here is secondary reporting. Tom’s Hardware reported in April 2026 that Samsung memory chief Kim Jaejune warned of “significant shortages” continuing through at least 2027; it also covered SK hynix’s shortage outlook. These comments support the possibility of broader tightness, but they are not a substitute for comparable, independently measured industry supply data. Tom’s Hardware’s report on Samsung and SK hynix gives that context.
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What “memory chips” means in the AI shortage
Memory is not one interchangeable market. HBM is a specialized form of DRAM; conventional DRAM serves servers, PCs and other devices; NAND is non-volatile memory used in SSDs and other storage. AI infrastructure draws on all of these in different roles, so a shortage or capacity decision in one category does not prove that every memory product has the same supply conditions.
HBM: high-bandwidth memory for accelerators
High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, is DRAM stacked in a 3D architecture using through-silicon vias. Micron describes it as offering greater bandwidth at lower power than other memory types. Its proximity to processors makes HBM useful in AI accelerator systems, but HBM should not be treated as a synonym for all DRAM or all AI memory.
Server DRAM: working memory for data centers
Servers need DRAM as working memory, including systems that support AI workloads. When suppliers direct resources toward HBM and other data-center products, conventional DRAM availability can also tighten. However, specifications and demand differ across server, PC, mobile and other uses, so the effect is not necessarily uniform.
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NAND: storage for data and workloads
NAND is used in storage products such as enterprise SSDs. AI data centers need storage as well as processor-adjacent and server memory; therefore AI-related demand can affect NAND markets too. That does not mean NAND and DRAM have identical supply cycles or shortages.
Micron’s fiscal 2025 filing distinguishes its business units and end markets. Its compute and networking unit reported revenue of $13.52 billion in fiscal 2025, $3.79 billion in fiscal 2024 and $1.87 billion in fiscal 2023. The unit includes multiple products and end markets, so those figures are not HBM-only revenue. Micron’s fiscal 2025 Form 10-K provides the business-unit context.
Why stronger AI demand can tighten supply beyond HBM
Suppliers cannot switch every production resource instantly among HBM, server DRAM, client memory and NAND. Products require different designs, production processes and qualification for customer systems. If manufacturers prioritize higher-margin HBM and data-center products, capacity and investment available for other products may be affected. Tom’s Hardware’s reporting on Samsung and SK hynix describes this risk for conventional DRAM, but it should be understood as reported industry commentary rather than a directly verified measure of every supplier’s allocations.
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Customer commitments can also give suppliers greater visibility without guaranteeing that all projected demand will become delivered product. Micron says customers are engaging more in longer-term supply commitments. That is evidence of buyers seeking security; it does not establish the final amount of demand, when orders will ship or how much supply competitors will provide.
How long could the memory shortage last?
Micron’s current forecast points to tightness through calendar 2028, and its capacity plans show why new supply may take years to arrive. The figures below are company projections disclosed by Micron, not guaranteed production dates or a schedule for the entire industry.
| Micron plan or estimate | Timing or amount | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated capital expenditure, net of government incentives | Above $25 billion for 2026 | Micron’s own investment estimate, not sector-wide spending. |
| First DRAM wafer output from first Idaho fab | Projected for mid-calendar 2027 | A planned start of wafer output, not proof of immediate full-scale supply. |
| Second Idaho fab | Expected to be operational by the end of 2028 | A Micron project milestone; operational status does not by itself specify total market output. |
| First New York fab supply | Projected for 2030 and beyond | A later component of Micron’s planned expansion. |
These estimates and timings come from Micron’s February 2026 Form 10-Q. Micron’s filing describes the company’s capital expenditure estimate and fab plans. New capacity takes time to build and ramp, and announced projects are not the same thing as output already reaching customers.
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Product launches add capacity only if manufacturing ramps successfully and yields, customer qualification and deliveries follow. Micron’s June 24, 2026 earnings release said HBM4 was in high-volume shipments for a lead customer and forecast volume production of HBM4E in calendar 2027. It also reported progress on server DRAM and data-center SSD products. Those milestones indicate activity across several product types, but a new generation alone does not establish enough total supply to end tightness. Micron’s Q3 2026 earnings release gives the product and ramp details.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Will AI cause a DRAM shortage for PCs and other devices?
AI-related investment can tighten conventional DRAM if suppliers allocate resources toward HBM and data-center products, while data-center demand also competes for server DRAM. But a forecast of aggregate DRAM demand exceeding supply does not tell you precisely which product, buyer or region will face the sharpest constraints. The cited outlook does not provide a consistent independent series for prices, inventories or industry utilization, so it cannot establish how a particular PC or phone market will be affected.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →For consumers and device makers, distinguish a market-wide forecast from the availability and price of a specific memory configuration. A server DRAM shortage, HBM allocation and NAND SSD constraint are related possibilities, not interchangeable descriptions of one product shortage.
Why the supply cycle could turn again
Memory has historically moved between shortage and oversupply. A period when demand outpaces capacity can encourage manufacturers to invest; if new supply arrives after demand growth slows or customers reduce orders, the balance can shift. AI may extend or reshape this cycle, but current shortage forecasts do not prove that cyclicality has ended.
The duration depends on several moving parts:
- AI infrastructure spending: whether data-center investment and deployment sustain the demand suppliers currently expect.
- Product mix: how demand divides among HBM, server DRAM, client and mobile DRAM, and NAND.
- Capacity execution: whether announced fabs and product ramps arrive on schedule and produce usable output at scale.
- Customer orders: whether commitments translate into continuing purchases rather than being revised as market conditions change.
Micron’s forecast is a useful time-bounded signal, but it comes from a manufacturer with an interest in describing demand and its own supply position. Company plans and supplier commentary should be read as forecasts, not proof of a fixed shortage end date.
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