Nuclear-effects simulators can show different blast radii, fallout areas and casualty totals because they use different equations, scenario settings, environmental assumptions and definitions of what they count. A yield number by itself is not enough to reproduce a result. To compare tools fairly, match the detonation scenario and settings, then compare the same named effect or outcome. Any remaining difference is model-dependent; it does not, by itself, prove that one simulator is wrong.
What can make two simulators disagree?
A mapped ring or casualty total is the end of a chain of assumptions, not a direct measurement of what would happen in a particular place. A difference can originate in the modeled physics, the chosen scenario, the underlying map or population data, or simply the way a tool displays its results.
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- Scenario inputs: yield, units, surface burst versus airburst, burst height and map location all matter. FEMA’s 2022 Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, third edition, treats burst height as an explicit scenario dimension.
- Effect methods: tools may use different relationships for blast, thermal effects and prompt radiation, and different approaches to fallout.
- Local conditions: weather affects fallout, while terrain and structures can change how damage and radiation patterns affect a location. HHS’s Radiation Emergency Medical Management (REMM) guidance notes that real damage zones are unlikely to be symmetrical and that transitions between zones are gradual.
- Population and casualty assumptions: estimated impacts depend on population cells and casualty-rate curves, as well as on what the tool counts as a casualty. Residents represented in a population grid are not necessarily the people present at a particular time.
- Display choices: a circle or contour is a simplified representation. Its edge should not be mistaken for a sharp boundary between safe and affected areas.
How the documented tools differ
The tools’ published methodology descriptions show why apparently similar maps may not be comparable. They describe different calculations and assumptions, not a controlled test establishing which tool is most accurate.
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| Tool | Documented approach | Important qualifications |
|---|---|---|
| NUKEMAP | Its FAQ describes a JavaScript effects library that calculates effect distances and maps them. Blast, thermal and radiation effects draw partly on digitized or fitted material from Glasstone and Dolan. Fallout uses Carl F. Miller’s Simplified Fallout Scaling System. | The FAQ says the effects calculations do not model terrain, building shielding, atmospheric reflection or opacity. Casualty estimates query a population-density database and apply a separate casualty model; they omit fallout and fire and have other stated limitations. With “maximize airburst radii for all effects” enabled, different rings may use different optimized burst altitudes, so the display does not represent one detonation height. |
| Nuclear War Simulator | Its technical page says overpressure uses a Brode equation; thermal and prompt radiation use digitized data from Glasstone and Dolan’s 1977 third edition; and fallout uses WSEG10, with an alternative HYSPLIT-based mode. Casualty estimates apply configurable fatality curves to population cells. | Its documented casualty sources and definitions differ from those of a radius-only display. The page describes the methods, but that does not establish how accurately a result predicts a specific event. |
| NukeSimulator | Its methodology page describes cube-root yield scaling for overpressure, thermal-dose and prompt-radiation rings, plus a simplified fallout model with yield, fission fraction, wind speed and direction as inputs. | The page says rings assume flat, open ground and describes terrain-shadow visualization. It gives a model-calibration range of roughly 1 kiloton to 20 megatons; results outside that span are extrapolated and less reliable. It characterizes the estimates as educational, not civil-defence planning guidance. |
NUKEMAP creator Alex Wellerstein cautions that its visualized effects are “back-of-the-envelope,” “order of magnitude” estimates that might rise or fall under different local conditions or target assumptions. That is a useful way to read idealized simulator maps generally: as model outputs whose meaning depends on their assumptions, not as precise forecasts for a city.
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Why fallout maps are especially hard to compare
Fallout is sensitive to both the model and its inputs. Among the documented approaches, NUKEMAP uses Miller’s simplified scaling system, Nuclear War Simulator offers WSEG10 and an alternative HYSPLIT-based mode, and NukeSimulator describes a simplified plume. Those are not interchangeable methods. A fallout comparison should record the selected model and, where applicable, fission fraction, wind speed and direction, weather inputs, and the time or dose represented by the contour.
A plume’s shape or reach should not be read as a weather-specific prediction unless the tool’s method and meteorological inputs support that interpretation. The reviewed methodology descriptions do not establish that every tool performs a site-specific weather simulation.
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Why casualty totals can differ even when maps look similar
Casualty estimates add another modeling layer to physical-effect maps. A tool may combine effect zones with population cells and apply fatality curves; another may use different curves, population data or definitions. NUKEMAP’s FAQ, for example, describes casualty estimates based on a population-density database and a separate casualty model, and says the estimates omit fallout and fire. Nuclear War Simulator documents configurable fatality curves applied to population cells.
Consequently, a displayed count is not a direct count of people who would be harmed in a known future event. Before comparing totals, check whether both tools estimate the same endpoint—such as immediate deaths, injuries or another casualty category—and whether their population and exposure assumptions match. A radius, exposed population, immediate deaths and cumulative modeled fatalities are different quantities.
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A fair, reproducible way to compare two tools
- Set one scenario. Use the same yield and units, surface or airburst setting, burst height and map location. Write these down before opening the second tool.
- Match effect-specific settings. For fallout, record the model, fission fraction, wind speed and direction, and weather inputs. For other effects, note any selectable model or display option. In particular, do not compare NUKEMAP’s individually maximized airburst rings with a display representing one fixed burst altitude.
- Name the endpoint precisely. Compare the same overpressure threshold with that threshold, or the same dose contour with the same dose and time reference. For casualty totals, identify the casualty definition rather than comparing an unlabeled number.
- Check geography and exposure. Note whether the result accounts for terrain, buildings or shielding, and what population data and time assumptions are used. Do not assume that a population grid represents who is present at a chosen moment.
- Document the method and date. Record the tool, its stated methodology, any available version information and the date you accessed it. Treat the result as an estimate, not a validated prediction for a particular city unless there is evidence supporting that claim.
- Describe the difference without overclaiming. If matched inputs still produce different outputs, report the values alongside their methods and assumptions. Without a controlled comparison, the size of the disagreement does not tell you which result is closer to reality.
Use planning scenarios as context, not forecasts
FEMA’s 2022 third-edition planning guide uses a nominal baseline of a 10-kiloton ground-level urban detonation. Its listed scenarios also include 0.1, 1 and 100 kilotons at ground level, plus 100 kilotons at airburst heights of 1,000 and 5,000 feet. These combinations illustrate that yield and burst height are separate planning variables; they are not universal forecasts for an actual detonation.
NukeSimulator’s methodology page, dated 2026 in its published description, gives example overpressure benchmarks of 20 psi for severe destruction, 5 psi for collapse of most residential buildings, and 1 psi for broken window glass and injuries. These are that simulator’s stated benchmark descriptions, not universal casualty rates or guarantees about what will happen at every location. Overpressure thresholds describe modeled effects; they do not by themselves supply a population-specific outcome.
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How accurate are nuclear-effect simulations?
The published descriptions support using these tools to explore how assumptions and effect models shape a visualization. They do not establish a measured accuracy ranking among the tools or validate their outputs as city-specific predictions. NUKEMAP explicitly characterizes its mapped effects as order-of-magnitude estimates; NukeSimulator labels its results educational and not suitable for civil-defence planning. For response planning, FEMA’s guidance and HHS REMM provide planning context, but a simulator output should not be substituted for official operational guidance.
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