The Tool Desk
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What makes crypto assets volatile?
Volatility is not explained by one universal cause. Cryptoasset prices form across markets that can differ in liquidity and pricing, while investors respond quickly to news and sentiment. Derivatives and borrowing can magnify those moves, and uncertainty about an asset’s value or regulatory treatment can change expectations about future demand and trading conditions.
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These mechanisms are connected: a change in sentiment can prompt selling; in a thin or fragmented market, that selling may move prices more; and leveraged positions can then face margin pressure or liquidation, adding further selling.
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Investor attention can shift quickly, particularly during boom periods. BIS research on crypto futures describes smaller investors chasing trends and seeking leveraged upside. When interest rises, buying can accelerate; when sentiment turns, demand can retreat just as quickly. Attention is one influence, not a complete explanation for every price move.
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How leverage can amplify a decline
Borrowing or using derivatives lets traders take positions larger than the capital they put down. That can magnify gains, but it also makes a position more vulnerable when prices fall or margin requirements rise. If a trader cannot provide more collateral, the position may be forcibly closed. Selling to close positions can add pressure to a falling market and prompt further liquidations.
The BIS described the broader mechanism in its 2022 report DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion: “As a key attribute of crypto markets, leverage amplifies their volatility and procyclicality.” In other words, leverage can reinforce a move rather than simply magnify an individual trader’s outcome.
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Why liquidity and market structure matter
Crypto assets trade across multiple venues, and prices can vary between them. Fragmentation and limited capacity to arbitrage those differences can make price discovery less stable. The Basel Framework notes valuation challenges related to volatility and variable prices across exchanges, particularly where assets trade on unregulated marketplaces. That framework is a bank-supervision standard, not a consumer investing guide.
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Liquidity also affects how much trading is needed to move a price. If buyers are scarce or markets are thin, selling can have a larger price impact. BIS research on Bitcoin and Ether futures identifies scarce arbitrage capital as one factor behind volatile futures carry—the difference between futures and spot prices.
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How uncertainty about regulation and value affects prices
Regulatory developments, or expectations of them, can alter anticipated access to markets, demand, liquidity and trading costs. The relevant rules and effects depend on the asset and jurisdiction; a risk disclosure hosted by the SEC, for example, identifies regulation and market-related concerns without proving that a particular policy action caused a particular price move.
Valuation uncertainty can add to the sensitivity. If market participants disagree about an asset’s expected use or future demand, new information may lead them to revise their expectations by different amounts. The result can be rapid repricing, but the size and direction are not reliably implied by the existence of uncertainty alone.
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How the forces combine in a market episode
- Attention or news changes expectations. Traders revise how much they want to buy or sell.
- Trading meets uneven liquidity. Fragmented venues and limited arbitrage capacity can make prices diverge or amplify the immediate impact of orders.
- Leverage adds pressure. Falling prices or higher margin requirements can force some positions to close.
- Forced selling feeds back into prices. Additional selling may trigger more margin pressure and liquidations.
This chain is a way to understand possible interactions, not a template that explains every episode. An analysis of a specific move should identify the asset and venue, distinguish spot from derivatives, examine liquidity and leverage conditions, and specify the news context and measurement window.
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What recent figures do—and do not—show
The BIS March 2026 Quarterly Review reported that Bitcoin fell about 50% from its 2025 highs during the review period, which ran through 5 March 2026, touching 2024 levels. It said leveraged-long liquidations probably exacerbated the decline. This is a dated example about Bitcoin, not a forecast or a comparison across all crypto assets.
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A different BIS paper, published in 2023, reported that crypto futures carry could reach up to 60% annualized and varied strongly over time. Carry is the difference between futures and spot prices; it is not ordinary spot-price volatility. The two figures describe different metrics and periods, so they should not be combined into a single estimate of how volatile crypto is.
Quick Recap
How to assess claims about crypto volatility
- Check which asset, trading venue and period a claim covers.
- Separate spot-price movements from derivatives measures such as futures carry.
- Look for information about liquidity, venue fragmentation, leverage and liquidations.
- Read policy claims in their jurisdictional context and distinguish a stated risk from evidence that a specific event caused a move.
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