Bitcoin can fall when bond yields rise because higher real yields may make a non-yielding, risk-sensitive asset less attractive, while the same market repricing can coincide with weaker appetite for risk or tighter financial conditions. But the relationship is not a mechanical rule: studies find different results, and crypto-specific pressures can outweigh the macro backdrop.
Why can rising yields put pressure on Bitcoin?
Higher real yields can raise the opportunity cost
Bitcoin does not pay interest. When inflation-adjusted yields rise, investors may see a higher return available from some interest-bearing assets, changing the relative appeal of holding a speculative asset with no contractual yield. This is a possible channel, not proof that a particular rise in yields caused a Bitcoin sell-off.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
It matters what kind of yield moved. A nominal Treasury yield reflects more than one component, including real yields and expected inflation. A rise driven substantially by real yields is not the same signal as one driven mainly by inflation compensation. In its February 2025 Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve said the 10-year Treasury yield increased from just above 3.6% in mid-September 2024 to 4.6% by early February 2025, and attributed much of the rise since mid-September to higher real yields.
The move can coincide with a broader shift away from risk
Yields can rise during a repricing of the economic or policy outlook. That repricing may also change investors’ appetite for risk, putting pressure on assets whose prices are sensitive to market sentiment. Bitcoin’s behavior has, in some research, increasingly resembled that of equities; this makes broad market conditions relevant to check, without making Bitcoin simply another stock.
#1 Best Overall
- BITCOIN EXCLUSIVE, PHONE VERIFICATION: Bitkey is designed from the ground up exclusively for bitcoin — a dedicated hardware wallet for secure bitcoin storage. Approve transactions with a tap using your phone and NFC. No device screen is required.
- SELF-CUSTODY, NO EXCHANGE OR CUSTODIAN REQUIRED: You hold two of the three keys in the Bitkey system – one on your phone and one on your Bitkey device. The third is stored on Bitkey’s server and cannot move your bitcoin on its own.
- NO SEED PHRASE: Set up and use Bitkey without creating or storing a seed phrase.
- 2-of-3 MULTISIG: Three keys are stored separately across your phone, Bitkey device, and Bitkey’s server. Any two keys are required to move your bitcoin.
- BUILT-IN RECOVERY: Encrypted backup and recovery tools can help you regain access if you lose your phone or Bitkey device. You can also designate a Recovery Contact.
Thin liquidity can magnify a shock
When liquidity is low, a given burst of selling can produce a larger price move. The Federal Reserve’s April 2025 Financial Stability Report describes this general amplification mechanism for asset prices. It is useful context for volatile markets, but it does not establish a direct causal path from Treasury liquidity to Bitcoin.
Crypto-specific stress may be the stronger explanation
Bitcoin can also fall because of events within digital-asset markets, whether or not yields are moving. A New York Fed review identifies valuation pressure, funding risk, widespread leverage, and interconnectedness in the digital-asset ecosystem as vulnerabilities. Those factors can add to a macro-driven decline or overwhelm it; the review does not quantify their contribution to any particular Bitcoin drawdown.
Rank #2
- Unparalleled Security: Protect your assets NDA-free EAL 6+ Secure Element, offering robust defense and complete transparency
- Simple & Secure Interface: Manage your digital assets easily with a clear OLED screen for secure on-device confirmations
- Supports 1000s of Coins & Tokens: Securely handle thousands of assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more, all in one wallet
- Effortless Asset Management: Monitor and transact seamlessly with Trezor Suite, our intuitive desktop and mobile app
- Enhanced Backup Solution: Rest assured with Multi-share Backup, eliminating single points of failure for secure cold wallet recovery
Does the evidence show that Bitcoin reliably falls when yields rise?
No. The results depend on the asset being measured, the period, and the method. A historical association between yields and a broad crypto index is not a Bitcoin-only estimate, and neither a chart nor a correlation establishes that yields caused prices to move.
| Evidence | What it found | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper (2026) | The paper reports that Bitcoin’s equity exposure became statistically positive around 2020. In the paper’s specifications, its estimated exposure to 10-year Treasury bond returns was not statistically distinguishable from zero. | This is evidence about estimated relationships in the paper’s sample and methods, not a rule for every market episode. The authors describe it as a working paper; working papers are not edited. |
| Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff report by Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa (2023) | An intraday event study found Bitcoin orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news in its sample. | The result concerns the news and event-study design examined, not every source of Bitcoin price variation or every period. |
| S&P Global analysis (2023) | For February 2017 to March 2023, S&P Global reported a historical correlation of -0.33 between its crypto-market index and the two-year U.S. Treasury risk-neutral yield. It also reported an inverse daily rolling three-month relationship 63% of the time since May 2017; under its chosen measure, the share was 75% from May 2020. | These are historical statistics for a crypto index and a particular yield measure, not a causal estimate for Bitcoin. The percentages describe that sample, not a current probability or forecast. |
The findings are not necessarily contradictory: an index-level relationship, an intraday response to news, and a regression estimate of Bitcoin’s exposure to Treasury bond returns answer different questions. “Treasury bond returns” also are not the same measure as changes in Treasury yields.
Rank #3
- Unparalleled Security: Protect your assets with EAL 6+ Secure Element, offering robust defense and complete transparency
- Simple & Secure Interface: Manage your digital assets easily with a clear OLED screen for secure on-device confirmations
- Supports 1000s of Coins & Tokens: Securely handle thousands of assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more, all in one wallet
- Effortless Asset Management: Monitor and transact seamlessly with Trezor Suite, our intuitive desktop and mobile app
- Enhanced Backup Solution: Multi-share Backup eliminates single points of failure for secure cold wallet recovery
What should you check when Bitcoin and yields move together?
- Identify the yield. Record the country, maturity, and series—such as the U.S. 2-year or 10-year Treasury—rather than referring to “bond yields” as one market measure.
- Separate the components when possible. Check whether the move is in nominal yields, real yields, or inflation compensation. A higher long-term yield alone does not establish that markets expect an immediate policy-rate increase.
- Compare the same time window across assets. Look at Bitcoin alongside broad equity returns and market volatility. Use dates and a consistent frequency; daily returns, yield changes, and price levels are different comparisons.
- Check liquidity and volatility conditions. Consider whether trading conditions may be amplifying moves. The Fed’s discussion of low liquidity is general market context, not proof that a particular Bitcoin move was transmitted from Treasury markets.
- Look for crypto-specific catalysts. Review contemporaneous signs of funding pressure, leverage, market-structure disruption, or major ecosystem events before attributing a decline to rates.
- Treat the dollar as context, not a shortcut. Include dollar movements if you have reliable data for the same period, but do not assume a stable Bitcoin–dollar relationship from the evidence summarized here.
How can you avoid reading too much into a chart?
Start by deciding what claim the chart is meant to test. If the question is whether Bitcoin tends to fall on days when yields rise, compare returns and yield changes over matched days. If the question is whether prices moved together over a longer period, label the chart as a comparison of price levels and do not present it as a test of causation.
- Keep the observation window and frequency consistent across the series.
- State which bond market, maturity, and yield measure you used.
- Do not use a short episode or a rolling correlation as proof of a general mechanism.
- Check for simultaneous changes in equity risk appetite, liquidity, and crypto-market conditions before drawing a conclusion.
A careful reading is therefore conditional: a rise in real yields may be one headwind, and a wider risk-off move or crypto-specific stress may help explain why Bitcoin fell at the same time. The evidence does not support treating yield increases as a standalone Bitcoin sell signal.
Quick Recap
Best Value
- Effortlessly build your crypto portfolio via the all in one Ledger Wallet app: buy, sell, send, receive, swap, stake and more across popular blockchains. 15,000+ coins & tokens in a single dashboard. Keep a close eye on the market. Compare service providers. Track performance. Get timely alerts. Build your portfolio with confidence.
- Enjoy Bluetooth connectivity, iOS access, and hours of battery use with this mobile-first, secure backup signer. Freedom you can depend on.
- Genuine Check: confirm your signer is authentic during setup with the Ledger Wallet app.
- Protect your signer: keep it in mint condition at all times with a bespoke Pod or Case to avoid scratches and everyday wear and tear.
Rank #4
- Dual-chip architecture for maximum protection: The next-gen, fully auditable TROPIC01 chip works alongside a certified EAL6+ Secure Element—completely NDA-free—to deliver radically transparent, industry-leading defense against physical attacks.
- Quantum-ready security: Get protection against future threats with the first-ever hardware wallet designed with quantum-ready architecture.
- See every detail with confidence: Our largest high-resolution color touchscreen makes it easy to navigate your assets, review transactions and manage your coins with clarity.
- Wireless freedom with encrypted Bluetooth control: Manage, buy, swap and stake securely using Trezor Suite on desktop or mobile. Qi2-compatible wireless charging keeps your Trezor powered up. No cables required—security meets convenience.
- Works seamlessly with Android, iOS and desktop: Connect wirelessly or via USB-C to your phone or computer. Manage your crypto anywhere with our companion Trezor Suite app.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches
