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Climate scientists are urging governments, international organizations and researchers to prepare for a potentially very strong El Niño later in 2026 by coordinating health protection, improving local risk assessment, strengthening monitoring and evaluating which interventions work. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 75% chance that October–December 2026 will meet its “historic” threshold; that is a forecast, not a guarantee of the event’s strength or of specific health impacts in any location.
What the late-2026 El Niño forecast says
A University of Bristol release dated 7 October 2026 describes a Lancet call to action by Ruby Lieber, Dann Mitchell and Anthony Haines. The release says a significant El Niño is likely toward the end of 2026 and that some forecasts predict an event among the strongest on record.
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigns a 75% chance that October–December 2026 reaches its “historic” category, defined as a three-month RONI value of +2.5°C or more. NOAA says El Niño-consistent impacts become more likely at that magnitude, but are not guaranteed. The World Meteorological Organization’s August 2026 update also anticipated further strengthening and very strong intensity later in the year. These are time-bound forecasts, not observed outcomes or a map of uniform effects worldwide.
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The NOAA probability describes the chance of meeting a forecast threshold; it is not a probability of illness, disaster or a particular health burden. The recommendations concern public policy and research, rather than household preparedness shopping advice.
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The five steps scientists recommend
1. Coordinate international action when El Niño is declared
When El Niño is officially declared, international bodies should coordinate urgent health protection and disease prevention. The Bristol release names the World Health Organization and wider UN system, the World Bank and NGOs among potential partners. Coordination can help align attention and support across borders instead of leaving each affected country to respond in isolation.
2. Help governments assess local health risks and prepare
National governments should assess how El Niño may affect population health and take precautions suited to their circumstances. The release specifically points to early-warning systems. A warning is useful only when it is connected to decisions and response capacity; the risks and appropriate preparations will differ by place.
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3. Expand attribution studies and apply their findings
Researchers and funders should scale up studies that examine how much observed climate-related health impacts are associated with El Niño, human-driven climate change, or both. The goal is not just to produce more studies: their findings should inform policy and practical responses. The release calls on research funders to help advance this work.
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Ongoing monitoring can build a clearer picture of changing health impacts and reveal where evidence is missing. This is important because effects may evolve over time and vary across locations; a single assessment cannot establish the full pattern.
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5. Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of measures
Decision-makers should assess whether climate-health measures deliver sufficient benefit for their costs. Examples named in the release include early-warning systems, stronger health-system capacity, urban flood protection and actions that make food systems more resilient. Evaluation helps guide choices among measures without assuming that one intervention will suit every community.
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The Bristol release identifies infectious disease, malnutrition and heat-related conditions such as dehydration and heatstroke as possible health consequences. It does not establish that these risks are equally likely everywhere, nor does it quantify the share of health effects attributable specifically to El Niño rather than climate change.
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Lieber, a senior research associate in climate science at the University of Bristol, said there is little evidence establishing how much of the health burden is attributable to climate change and how much was driven by El Niño. That uncertainty is a reason to improve local measurement and attribution—not a basis for assigning a precise burden to the forecast event.
The recommendations therefore connect preparation with evidence: assess risks before impacts unfold, monitor health outcomes as conditions change, and use attribution studies and evaluations to refine policy. Better distinctions between El Niño and human-driven climate change can help officials choose measures that fit the threats and circumstances they face.
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Sources and forecast qualifications
- University of Bristol, “Top climate scientists set out five steps to help the world prepare for super El Niño,” 7 October 2026. The five recommendations and health-risk discussion here reflect the release’s account of the Lancet call to action.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, “El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecast Highlights”. The 75% figure is NOAA’s forecast probability for October–December 2026 meeting its historic RONI threshold.
- World Meteorological Organization, “El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)”. The update anticipated further strengthening and very strong intensity later in 2026.
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