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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThe 2026 Senate map is becoming more competitive in several Republican-held states, but changing race ratings are not election results. The starting point is a 53–45–2 Senate party division; a July 14 seat snapshot listed 22 Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held Class II seats for the cycle. Cook Political Report’s September 23 ratings movement, reported by Axios, shifted Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats and highlighted Georgia as part of the changing picture. These are dated snapshots and assessments, not a live candidate list or a forecast of who will win.
Start with the Senate’s current balance
The U.S. Senate’s current roster lists 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the 119th Congress. Those are party labels. For organizational purposes, Senators Angus King and Bernie Sanders caucus with Democrats, according to the Senate’s Senate Facts page. Keeping party and caucus affiliation distinct avoids turning the 53–45–2 party count into a misleading description of the Senate’s organization.
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The balance is a present-day chamber count; it does not tell you which seats are on the ballot or which party will control the Senate after the election. Those are separate questions.
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The Senate’s Class II roster identifies the class whose terms expire in 2027. In its July 14, 2026 snapshot, Senate Daily Press listed 13 Democratic-held and 22 Republican-held Class II seats facing the 2026 cycle. That is a dated incumbent-and-seat roster, not a prediction and not a current list of nominees.
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The snapshot already needs context: it records retirements by Democrats Dick Durbin, Gary Peters, Jeanne Shaheen and Tina Smith, and Republicans Steve Daines, Joni Ernst, Cynthia Lummis, Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis and Tommy Tuberville. It also marks Republicans Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn as having lost their primaries. Because retirements and primary outcomes can change whether an incumbent is running, consult current state election records for candidate and ballot status rather than treating that July list as a live registry.
What the latest reported rating shifts say
Cook Political Report’s September 23, 2026 ratings page covers 35 Senate races and explains that its assessments consider state political makeup, candidates’ strengths and weaknesses, political conditions in the state and nationally, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals. Its labels describe degrees of competitiveness, from Solid Democrat through Toss Up to Solid Republican; they are analyst judgments, not vote counts or guarantees. See Cook’s 2026 Senate Race Ratings for individual contests and its ratings overview for category descriptions.
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Axios’s September 23 account of Cook’s ratings reported two specific changes: Kansas moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and South Carolina moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Axios also reported that six Republican-held seats were rated Toss Up or better for Democrats. These figures describe the September 23 report; check Cook’s live chart for the current label on any individual race. Cook’s overview later displayed a September 29 update for its Senate ratings, so the September 23 changes should not be mistaken for the latest possible assessment as of October 3.
| Race or measure | Reported change or count | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Likely Republican → Lean Republican, in Axios’s September 23 account of Cook’s ratings | A less secure Republican rating, not a result or a claim that Democrats lead. |
| South Carolina | Solid Republican → Likely Republican, in Axios’s September 23 account of Cook’s ratings | Cook assessed the contest as less safely Republican than before, while still rating it Likely Republican. |
| Republican-held seats | Six rated Toss Up or better for Democrats, as Axios reported September 23 | A combined competitiveness description, not six Democratic wins or six seats that have changed party control. |
Axios’s account is secondary reporting of Cook’s categories; use its September 23 report for that dated summary and Cook’s chart for Cook’s race-by-race assessments. Georgia was also singled out in the September 23 coverage as part of the movement toward Democrats, but the available summary does not specify a before-and-after label for the state. Check the live chart rather than assigning it a category from that summary.
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How to read a rating without overreading it
The labels are a scale, not probabilities
Cook’s seven categories run from Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican to Solid Republican. A move toward Toss Up signals a change in Cook’s assessment of competitiveness; it does not mean the candidates are tied, provide a numerical probability, or establish that the seat has switched sides.
Ratings reflect several inputs
Cook says its analysis weighs state political makeup, the candidate field, state and national political conditions, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals. That is why a race rating is not simply a reading of one past election result or the national political mood. Candidate strengths and weaknesses matter, but the rating remains Cook’s judgment.
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Each rating needs a date
Ratings can change without any ballots being counted. When describing a shift, include the rating publisher and date, then distinguish the old label from the new one. The September 23 Kansas and South Carolina moves, for example, report changes in Cook’s assessment; they say nothing by themselves about November vote totals or winners.
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What to check when comparing races
A useful comparison uses the same questions for each contest rather than treating a rating as the whole story:
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- Is the seat open, or is an incumbent running? Confirm retirement, primary and nominee status with the relevant state election authority; the July Senate Daily Press snapshot is not a complete live candidate registry.
- What is the state context? Cook identifies state political makeup as one input, so avoid substituting a single previous result or a national trend for the state’s broader context.
- Which rating, from whom, and on what date? Use Cook for Cook’s current individual labels and report a date with any category. A movement is an assessment change, not a vote tally.
- What election rules apply there? Confirm primary, general and runoff details with that state’s election office. Rules are state-specific and should not be generalized from another contest.
Where to verify election dates and procedures
The Federal Election Commission’s 2026 congressional pre-election reporting dates page is an index to federal campaign-finance reporting schedules and state links. It is not a substitute for a state election authority on ballot procedures. The page describes a state-law runoff on December 12 if no candidate in the November 3 general election receives over 50 percent in the state it covers; that rule should not be applied to other states without checking their laws.
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