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The most defensible answer is sustained investment in foundational cybersecurity practices and resilience—not a single device, software purchase, or quick fix. For U.S. critical-infrastructure organizations, CISA’s voluntary Cross-Sector Cybersecurity Performance Goals offer a baseline for prioritizing that work. They can help reduce risk, but no evidence cited here shows that one investment can prevent the next cyber catastrophe.
Why cyber risk can reach beyond stolen data
A cyberattack on essential technology can affect services people depend on, not just the confidentiality of files. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) says attacks on essential technology systems could cause serious harm to human safety, national security, the environment, and the economy. Those are possible consequences, not a quantified prediction that a particular catastrophe will occur.
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In a June 13, 2024 report, GAO said federal agencies reported 30,659 information-security incidents to the Department of Homeland Security’s U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team in fiscal year 2022. That figure describes federal agency reporting for that fiscal year; it is not a count of all U.S. cyber incidents, nor a measure of how many caused serious harm.
What the investment should be
Think of the investment as the capacity to choose, implement, maintain, and review a set of foundational practices. It may require budget, staff time, leadership attention, and changes to routine operations. Buying a product can be part of that work when it addresses a defined need, but a purchase alone does not establish that an organization has reduced its most important risks.
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CISA describes its Cross-Sector Cybersecurity Performance Goals (CPGs) as voluntary foundational practices with known risk-reduction value, intended to help critical-infrastructure organizations prioritize. CISA announced CPG 2.0 on December 10, 2025, describing measurable practices for information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT), with added emphasis on governance, accountability, risk management, and integrating security into routine operations. This is a practical baseline—not a guarantee of protection or a promise that following it will avert a catastrophe.
How to turn a baseline into a real organizational investment
The useful question is not “Which security product should we buy?” but “Which risk are we reducing, for which service, and who will make sure the work lasts?” Use these questions to shape a decision:
- Define the scope. Name the service, system, sector, or dependency the work is meant to protect. A control aimed at one environment should not be treated as protection for every system the organization operates.
- Connect the work to a risk. Identify the credible threat or weakness the proposed practice addresses. If the risk is unclear, the investment’s value is difficult to judge.
- Count the ongoing work. Include the people and processes needed to implement and maintain the change, such as staff capacity, training, monitoring, and recovery work where relevant. A one-time budget approval does not ensure continued operation.
- Be precise about resilience. Ask whether the practice improves prevention, detection, response, or recovery. Do not assume that improving one area covers all four.
- Assign accountability. Identify who owns the risk decision, who is responsible for implementation, and who will track whether the work is completed and maintained.
- Choose measures before claiming success. Record a baseline and decide what observable outcome would show progress. Match any claimed benefit to the systems and population actually measured.
This approach makes investment decisions comparable without pretending every organization faces the same threat or has the same capacity. A small operator may need outside implementation support; a larger organization may have internal specialists. In either case, support is a means of carrying out the work, not evidence that catastrophe prevention is assured.
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In a January 10, 2025 announcement, CISA described an analysis of 7,791 organizations enrolled in its Vulnerability Scanning service. The analysis covered August 1, 2022 through August 31, 2024. CISA highlighted healthcare and public health, water and wastewater, communications, and government services and facilities as the sectors most impacted by CPG adoption.
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This is evidence about a defined group enrolled in that service, not a census of all critical-infrastructure operators. It also does not establish that CPG adoption caused a particular security outcome or that the same results apply to every sector.
Why governance and follow-through matter
GAO’s June 2024 report also counted 1,610 cybersecurity recommendations it had made since 2010. As of May 2024, 1,043 had been implemented and 567 remained unimplemented. These are GAO recommendation totals and implementation statuses—not a direct measure of national security posture, the number of exposed systems, or the effectiveness of any single control. They nevertheless illustrate why recommendations and budgets are not the same as completed work.
For an organization, governance turns a stated priority into an owned decision: someone must be responsible for selecting work, allocating capacity, tracking implementation, and revisiting risk as systems and operations change. CPG 2.0’s focus on accountability and strategic integration reflects that need. Security practices that are not maintained can lose value; the relevant investment is therefore ongoing attention as well as initial implementation.
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The available official evidence does not establish a validated probability for a future “cyber catastrophe,” quantify how much one practice changes that probability, or show that one simple investment could prevent such an event. CISA’s goals support prioritization of foundational work; GAO documents reported federal incidents, potential consequences, and unfinished recommendations; CISA’s adoption analysis describes a specific enrolled cohort. None of those measures is a forecast or proof that one intervention is sufficient.
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For U.S. critical infrastructure, the credible answer to the headline is a durable, governed program of foundational cyber practices and resilience, chosen for the organization’s risks and maintained over time. It is less simple than buying one thing, but it is the answer the evidence supports.
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