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The EU’s next long-term budget is still being negotiated, not approved. On 13 October 2026, Ireland’s Council Presidency had put forward a €1.62 trillion proposal for the 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF), while the European Parliament was seeking €1.78 trillion in 2025 prices. Governments are divided over the total, national contributions and how to balance established programmes against newer priorities. Elections expected in France, Italy, Poland and Spain during 2026–2027 add political uncertainty, but their eventual effect on the talks is not established.
What the EU’s next long-term budget covers
The MFF sets the EU’s spending ceilings and broad allocations for seven years. The negotiation now underway concerns 2028–2034; it is separate from the EU’s annual 2027 budget. The European Commission presented its proposal on 16 July 2025. The framework must be settled alongside legislation governing individual funding programmes, so a leaders’ political deal is an important milestone rather than the final step in every approval.
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The argument is not simply about whether the EU should spend more. Member states and EU institutions are also contesting who pays, which programmes receive protected funding, how new priorities are financed, and how spending is overseen.
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Headline totals can mislead unless they are compared on the same price basis and with the same treatment of NextGenerationEU debt repayment. The figures below are proposals or negotiating positions, not an adopted budget.
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| Position | Figure | Price basis and debt treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Irish Council Presidency proposal | €1.62 trillion | The Associated Press report of 13 October 2026 did not state the price basis or debt-repayment treatment. |
| European Commission proposal | €1.76 trillion | In 2025 prices, including €149.3 billion for NextGenerationEU debt repayment, according to the European Parliamentary Research Service. |
| European Parliament position | €1.78 trillion; €2.01 trillion in current prices | €1.78 trillion in constant 2025 prices. Parliament proposes €149.3 billion for NextGenerationEU debt repayment above the main MFF ceilings. |
Parliament describes its position as €175 billion above the Commission proposal in 2025 prices. That comparison should not be read as a direct comparison with Ireland’s €1.62 trillion figure, whose price and debt treatment were not stated in the AP account. AP also described the Irish proposal as 30% above the current seven-year package and 8% below the Commission’s proposal; those comparisons reflect the report’s framing and may need revisiting if proposal figures are revised.
Why governments disagree over the size and priorities
Affordability and national contributions
The EU budget is funded chiefly by member-state contributions based on gross national income, as well as customs duties, VAT-based resources and a contribution linked to non-recycled plastics. Governments concerned about the cost want the total to remain affordable, particularly for countries that contribute more. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “we are still a long way from reaching an agreement,” and argued that the budget must be affordable for states bearing the main financing burden.
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Sweden’s EU Affairs Minister Jessica Rosencrantz called the Irish proposal “wildly unaffordable” and said implementing it would mean a 60% increase in Sweden’s contribution. That is her political assessment, not an independently established calculation of Sweden’s future payment.
Established programmes and newer priorities
AP reported that cohesion and farm spending together account for about two-thirds of the budget. Governments resisting cuts to those areas face a difficult trade-off: unless member states contribute more or new revenue is found, preserving established programmes may constrain ambitions in areas such as defence and competitiveness.
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Parliament wants clearly ring-fenced funding for agriculture, fisheries, cohesion policy and the European Social Fund, while also calling for more investment in competitiveness, defence, innovation, and the green and digital transitions. The Commission’s proposal puts greater emphasis on performance-based budgeting, a European Competitiveness Fund and new debt-financed loan instruments. Parliament has objected to the proposed national-and-regional-plan structure, arguing that it could weaken transparency, parliamentary scrutiny and established EU policies. That is Parliament’s position in the negotiations, not an adjudicated finding.
New revenue and oversight
The Commission has proposed possible new own resources linked to emissions trading, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, non-recycled e-waste, tobacco excise duties and a contribution from large companies. Parliament estimates these could raise €60 billion annually; the amount is an estimate, not enacted or guaranteed revenue. Parliament supports new revenue sources, but the own-resources decision requires unanimity and national ratification, making agreement politically and procedurally demanding.
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Why elections raise the stakes—and what is known
An AP report on 13 October 2026 linked the urgency of the budget talks to elections in France, Italy, Poland and Spain later in 2026 and in 2027. It described uncertainty around outcomes, including hard-right strength in French polling, but did not provide a comprehensive election calendar or establish how any result will affect negotiations. It would therefore be premature to say that all four countries vote in 2027 or that a particular result will change the budget.
The political concern is that a change in national governments could make consensus harder to secure—or that current leaders may prefer to negotiate while they remain in office. That is a plausible reason to seek an earlier agreement, not a demonstrated outcome. European Council President António Costa called a “timely agreement” essential for economic predictability and stability amid an unstable world.
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What happens next, and what if the timetable slips?
- Leaders’ talks: Ireland, holding the rotating Council Presidency in the second half of 2026, is preparing the ground for a political agreement. AP reported that the next EU leadership summit was scheduled for 15–16 October 2026. Ireland’s minister of state for European affairs, Thomas Byrne, said the presidency’s task was “to find that basis”; he added that it had not been asked to find a basis for agreement yet.
- Political target: The Council says an agreement by the end of 2026 would leave time to adopt programme legislation in 2027 and support funding from January 2028. Byrne acknowledged that no side would get everything it wanted, but hoped there would be “something there for everybody.”
- Formal MFF approval: The Council must adopt the MFF regulation unanimously, after the European Parliament gives its consent. Parliament can approve or reject the Council’s position, but cannot amend it under this special procedure.
- Separate revenue approval: The own-resources decision also needs unanimity and subsequent national ratification. Most individual spending programmes follow their own relevant legislative procedures.
The timetable matters because the political agreement does not complete all of those steps. But missing the end-2026 target would not mean EU funding immediately runs out: the framework is meant to begin in January 2028. A delay would instead leave less time for the legislative and approval work required before then.
Quick Recap
How the negotiations reached this point
- 16 July 2025: The European Commission presented its 2028–2034 MFF proposal.
- 28 April 2026: Parliament adopted its interim report and negotiating position by 370 votes to 201, with 84 abstentions.
- 11 June 2026: The Cyprus Presidency presented a revised Council negotiating box with figures.
- 13 October 2026: AP reported Ireland’s €1.62 trillion proposal and the competing affordability and spending arguments.
- January 2028: The new MFF is scheduled to enter into force.
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