Yes—according to the Global Carbon Project’s preliminary Global Carbon Budget 2025 estimate, the global land carbon sink recovered in 2025 to pre-El Niño levels after unusually weak years in 2023–2024. That is an estimate of one year’s net CO₂ uptake, not proof that the land’s long-term capacity to absorb carbon has permanently strengthened.
What “the land sink” measures
In the Global Carbon Budget, the land sink is the net amount of CO₂ taken up by land each year, excluding land-use change. It is a flow, not a fixed measure of how much carbon forests and soils can store. The total combines uptake and releases across many ecosystems; forests and soils are important parts of that picture, but their performance varies with temperature, rainfall, fires and other conditions.
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The word “recovered” therefore refers to an estimated annual global balance. It does not mean that every forest or region returned to its earlier condition, or that carbon lost in a particular place was restored.
What the annual budget found
The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 budget estimates a land sink of 1.9 ± 0.8 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) per year in 2024, compared with an average of 2.4 ± 0.8 GtC per year over 2015–2024. The 2024 estimate was 37% below the stronger 2022 sink, estimated at 3.1 ± 1.0 GtC per year. The project’s preliminary estimate for 2025 says uptake returned to pre-El Niño levels, but it does not give a numerical 2025 value.
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| Period or comparison | Estimated land sink | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 2015–2024 average | 2.4 ± 0.8 GtC per year | Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget 2025 |
| 2022 | 3.1 ± 1.0 GtC per year | Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget 2025 |
| 2024 | 1.9 ± 0.8 GtC per year | Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget 2025 |
| July 2024–June 2025 | 1.06 ± 0.40 GtC per year | Ke et al. (2026), average of bottom-up and top-down estimates; 0.49 GtC per year below that study’s 2015–2022 July-to-June mean |
The Global Carbon Project’s FAQ describes the preliminary result this way: “After a substantially weaker land sink in 2024 due to the 2023-2024 El Niño conditions, the preliminary estimate for 2025 suggests a full recovery of the sink to pre-El Niño levels.” “Preliminary” matters: the figure is an early estimate, not a final measurement of all land carbon exchange.
Why another 2025 analysis reports a partial recovery
Ke et al.’s 2026 low-latency study examined July 2024 through June 2025, rather than the calendar year 2025. It found that the sink had recovered from the El Niño low, but its 1.06 ± 0.40 GtC-per-year estimate remained 0.49 GtC per year below the study’s average for the same July-to-June period in 2015–2022.
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These findings are not direct contradictions or like-for-like measurements. The Global Carbon Budget’s preliminary statement compares an annual 2025 estimate with pre-El Niño levels. Ke et al. use a July-to-June window and a separate mix of near-real-time inputs, models and atmospheric inversions. Their estimates also do not include the Replaced Sinks and Sources (RSS) correction introduced in the 2025 budget. Period, data stream, model choices and processing all affect the result, so the two studies’ absolute values should not be treated as interchangeable.
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The Global Carbon Budget attributes the major 2024 reduction as likely driven by 2023–2024 El Niño conditions. It reports that tropical land uptake fell 66%, from 2.8 GtC in 2022 to 1.0 GtC in 2024. Intense wildfires in Canada, Bolivia and Brazil were also identified as significant sources of CO₂. These regional changes do not move in unison: a global total combines different ecosystem conditions, uptake and fire emissions across regions.
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The budget also finds that the land sink has been relatively stagnant since 2000. CO₂-driven growth in uptake has been offset by climate variability and climate change. Its FAQ estimates that, on average over 2015–2024, the land sink was 25% smaller than it would have been without climate change and climate variability. That is a counterfactual comparison—not a claim that land uptake fell by 25% during those years.
Land and ocean sinks together still absorb around half of human CO₂ emissions, according to the Global Carbon Project. But climate change and variability make the future contribution of these sinks less certain. A stronger estimated year is welcome, yet it does not establish that the pressures affecting ecosystems have ended.
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How to read future sink claims
When two reports describe the sink as recovering—or not—check what each number actually covers. The key distinctions are the reporting period, whether the estimate is preliminary or part of a budget, the method and data used, the definition of the sink, and any processing correction. An annual global flux is best read as an estimate with an uncertainty range, not as a simple score for the health of every forest and soil.
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