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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Neither currency is a universal safe haven. The Swiss franc has strengthened in some periods of market stress, but its performance depends on the currency it is measured against, the type of shock and the period studied. One historical study found the franc tended to rise against the dollar during certain risk-off conditions; another found it weakened against the dollar as global risk increased. That difference is a reason to compare specific episodes, not declare one currency safer in every crisis.
What “safe haven” means for a currency
A safe-haven label describes how an asset behaves under specified risk conditions relative to another asset. It does not guarantee that the asset will appreciate whenever markets fall. For currencies, the result is necessarily bilateral: a franc can rise against the euro while falling against the dollar during the same broad period of heightened risk.
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So “Is the Swiss franc safer than the US dollar?” has no dependable yes-or-no answer without specifying the currency pair, the risk trigger, the observation horizon and the sample period. Falling share prices, rising government-bond prices, higher currency volatility and negative economic surprises are related but distinct conditions.
What the franc–dollar evidence shows
A 1993–2006 study found franc strength in certain risk-off conditions
Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind’s 2007 working paper examined high-frequency exchange-rate movements from 1993 through 2006. In that sample, the franc tended to appreciate against the dollar when US equity returns were negative, US bond prices rose, and currency-market volatility increased. Among the currencies compared, the authors described the franc as having the strongest safe-haven attributes; they characterized the dollar as pro-cyclical with equities. Those findings describe that historical sample, not a current or timeless ranking. Read the 2007 study.
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A 2013 study found different results across currency pairs
Christian Grisse and Thomas Nitschka’s 2013 Swiss National Bank working paper found that, as global risk increased, the franc appreciated against the euro and typical carry-trade currencies, but depreciated against the US dollar, Japanese yen and British pound. The relationships varied over time and became stronger in stress periods. This does not simply cancel the earlier result: the studies use different samples and approaches, and the 2013 findings underline that safe-haven behavior can differ by bilateral pair. Read the 2013 study.
A later model highlighted risk in franc movements, not a universal forecast
A 2020 SNB paper decomposed daily USD/CHF and EUR/CHF moves from 2006 to 2018 into risk, dollar and euro factors. In that model, the factors explained approximately 73% of USD/CHF variation and 37% of EUR/CHF variation in the sample. The risk factor contributed most to franc dynamics, particularly when the risk environment worsened. These are model-specific shares of variation explained in the historical data—not forecast accuracy, a causal guarantee or a measure of what the model explains today. Read the 2020 study.
Why the franc may strengthen when markets are nervous
Uncertainty and information can matter alongside investment flows
Risk-related demand is one possible explanation for franc strength, but it should not be reduced to a claim that investors must be moving capital into Switzerland. In a 2016 study, Pinar Yesin found that uncertainty indicators were more robustly linked to franc movements than capital-flow variables. The study’s analysis pointed to an information channel coinciding with franc behavior rather than new cross-border investment as the stronger relationship. Read Yesin’s study.
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Economic surprises and worsening market conditions are separate channels
Another 2016 study by Adrian Jäggi, Martin Schlegel and Attilio Zanetti examined the franc and yen. It identified two distinct sources of appreciation pressure: negative macroeconomic surprises and a deterioration in market conditions. The effects were magnified during the crisis period they studied. That helps explain why a move described broadly as “risk-off” may reflect more than one trigger. Read the study.
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- In 1967, the price of silver soared steeply, reaching 260 francs per kilogram in August and 350 francs per kilogram in March 1968. At this time, the melt value of the 1/2 franc pieces was circa 0.73 francs. Switzerland started to experience a severe shortage of cash, especially in the north, where people were illegally exporting coins to Germany to be melted. In spite of strict measures against hoarding and melting coins, it is estimated that around 100 tonnes of silver in Swiss francs melted
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Central-bank policy can affect the exchange-rate response
Observed exchange rates reflect policy as well as private-market reactions. The SNB has described foreign-exchange intervention as a tool used to slow franc appreciation when stronger franc pressure threatened to add to disinflationary conditions in Switzerland. In a speech on 25 September 2009, then-SNB Governing Board member Thomas Jordan said: “The crisis has shown that the Swiss franc still has a safe haven status.” He also described foreign-currency purchases begun in March 2009 to prevent appreciation against the euro amid an exceptionally difficult economic situation and deflation risks. Read Jordan’s speech.
The SNB’s account of its monetary-policy history reports currency reserves of CHF 85 billion at the end of 2007 and CHF 1,015 billion at the end of 2021. These are reserve holdings at two year-end dates, not totals of intervention. The same account says the SNB sold foreign exchange in 2022 and 2023 to support franc appreciation against inflationary pressure. See the SNB’s explanation of foreign-exchange interventions.
A joint statement published on 29 September 2025 by the SNB, Swiss Federal Department of Finance and US Treasury reaffirmed that neither Switzerland nor the United States targets exchange rates for competitive purposes. It also states that foreign-exchange intervention remains an important SNB monetary-policy instrument for ensuring appropriate monetary conditions and price stability. The statement concerns policy principles; it does not establish which currency will rise in a future crisis. Read the joint statement.
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- Name the pair: CHF/USD, CHF/EUR and other bilateral rates can produce different safe-haven results.
- Identify the trigger: distinguish falling equities, rising bond prices, currency volatility, negative economic surprises and broader market deterioration.
- Keep the period and horizon attached: intraday observations from 1993–2006 are not interchangeable with daily data from 2006–2018 or a later episode.
- Separate market behavior from policy: central-bank foreign-exchange operations can offset or reinforce pressure on a currency.
The available comparative evidence does not establish a current, broad ranking of the dollar’s safe-haven performance across currencies and crisis types. In particular, the 1993–2006 description of the dollar as pro-cyclical should not be extended to every subsequent crisis; the later bilateral findings show why that would be too broad.
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