SpaceX Reveals How Close Other Satellites Get to Starlink

SpaceX says one satellite on a predicted close-approach path with Starlink was estimated to pass about 9,000 meters away five hours before closest approach in late 2025. That figure describes a changing prediction—not a confirmed impact, or a complete measure of collision risk.

What SpaceX says happened

In a Stargaze update, SpaceX described a late-2025 conjunction involving a Starlink satellite and a maneuvering satellite operated by another party. The company said the other operator was not sharing ephemeris—predicted position-and-velocity data for its spacecraft—and that the predicted separation changed as the encounter approached. Five hours before closest approach, SpaceX’s system assessed the geometry as a safe miss with zero collision probability.

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Those details are SpaceX’s account; the event and its prediction were not independently verified in the available reporting. The 9,000-meter estimate should therefore be understood as one snapshot in a changing forecast, not as a confirmed distance at the moment of closest approach.

Why a close-approach distance is not a collision probability

A conjunction is a forecast, not an impact

A conjunction is a predicted close approach between two orbital paths. Operators can use different alert thresholds, so the word “conjunction” alone does not mean a collision is imminent. Nor is there one universal distance at which every operator must maneuver.

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Uncertainty matters as well as distance

A Conjunction Data Message (CDM) represents a predicted close approach between two trajectories. A miss distance describes the forecast geometry; collision probability also depends on how uncertain each spacecraft’s predicted position is. Starlink’s technical documentation says its system generates CDMs using trajectory position and covariance information. When both trajectories include covariance, a CDM can contain a collision-probability value. If covariance is missing or a calculation fails, the probability field may be null even when the message includes a relative miss vector.

That distinction is important when an operator is not sharing ephemeris: a distance estimate on its own does not provide all the inputs needed to interpret risk. Starlink documentation says CDMs can draw on operator-provided ephemerides or Stargaze optical observations; those different inputs can produce distinct estimates for an event.

How many other maneuvering satellites does SpaceX say it encounters?

SpaceX’s Stargaze update says Starlink encountered conjunctions with about 650 unique maneuvering third-party satellites during 2026, and that only about half shared ephemeris. These are company-reported figures, not an independently audited inventory of every encounter involving Starlink or other satellites.

Sharing predicted trajectories helps operators assess the encounter and coordinate a response. But computing a forecast is only part of the work: operators also need to communicate, decide which spacecraft will maneuver, and do so on mission-appropriate timelines.

What maneuver thresholds do operators use?

Collision-probability thresholds are policy inputs to maneuver decisions, not universal definitions of a safe miss. NASA says operators may request conjunction alerts at different probability levels, often from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000,000 or lower.

How operators coordinate a maneuver

NASA’s Starling 1.5 experiment offers a documented example of shared screening and maneuver responsibility. NASA says its spacecraft used SpaceX’s screening service, accepted responsibility for moving, and autonomously planned and executed a maneuver that resolved a close approach with a Starlink satellite. The experiment demonstrates a coordination approach; it does not independently verify SpaceX’s separate late-2025 account.

“Usually, SpaceX takes the responsibility to move out of the way when another operator shares their predicted trajectory information.”

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— Nathan Benz, Starling 1.5 project manager at NASA Ames, March 26, 2025

Benz said NASA’s spacecraft accepted responsibility during the experiment and autonomously planned and executed the maneuver. NASA program officer Lauri Newman described the broader goal: “A fully automated system that is flexible and adaptable between satellite constellations is ideal for an environment of multiple satellite operators, all of whom have differing criteria for mitigating collision risks.”

What the FCC reporting requirement does—and does not—mean

FCC DA 24-1193 requires SpaceX to submit semiannual reports for Gen2 covering conjunction events, satellites screened from deployment, reentries, and disposal failures. That is a regulatory reporting requirement; it does not mean the FCC publishes every conjunction event in real time.

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