There is no representative evidence that senior engineers are broadly leaving major technology companies for startups. The “exodus” is better treated as a question than a proven trend: available studies track workplace-policy effects, general tech-worker sentiment and startup hiring—not where senior engineers go after leaving.
Is there a Big Tech-to-startup exodus?
The evidence reviewed does not measure a broad flow of senior engineers from large technology companies into startups. A study of return-to-office policies at Microsoft, SpaceX and Apple found changes in employee tenure and seniority, but the authors report that departures appeared to be driven by employees moving to larger direct competitors—not startups. It therefore cannot establish the destination or motivations of a general pool of departing engineers.
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It is important to distinguish three different things: employees voluntarily leaving a company, workers laid off by an employer, and people who leave for a startup. One does not establish the others. The available evidence supports examining possible pressures and trade-offs, not declaring a startup-bound exodus.
What might push experienced engineers to consider leaving?
Workplace policy can affect retention, but the evidence is limited
In a 2024 paper, David Van Dijcke, Florian Gunsilius and Austin Wright analyzed 260 million matched resumes to study return-to-office policies at Microsoft, SpaceX and Apple. They report reduced counterfactual tenure and a shift in seniority distribution below senior levels, with stronger effects among employees with longer tenure and at higher seniority. The authors say the shifts appear to have been driven by employees leaving for larger direct competitors. These findings concern three companies and do not show that affected employees went to startups. Read the paper on SSRN.
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- we like to ship out right away
Stability is on tech workers’ minds
In Dice’s 2026 Tech Sentiment Report, job stability ranked as the number-two reason to switch employers, up from number seven in 2024. The finding comes from a November–December 2025 survey of 1,159 US tech professionals, including employed and job-seeking workers. It is not specific to senior engineers or people considering startups; it signals a broad concern, not a forecast about any particular employer. Read Dice’s report.
Are startups hiring senior engineers?
Startup hiring has not returned to the peak of the 2021–22 boom, and conditions vary by sector. Carta says VC-backed companies on its platform made 26,030 hires in January 2026, 65% below January 2022. Its 2025 data show more hires than departures in most sectors, but the balance was stronger in some fields than others.
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| Sector | Hires per departure in 2025 |
|---|---|
| Hardware | 1.7 |
| Medical devices | 1.4 |
| Healthtech | 1.4 |
| SaaS | 1.4 |
Gaming, biotech and energy had weaker hiring-to-departure ratios. These are headcount figures for VC-backed companies using Carta, not counts of senior-engineer openings or a census of all startups. January 2026 records may also be revised as new records are entered. See Carta’s startup compensation and hiring data.
Geography and stage matter
For a dated regional example, State of European Tech reported that VC-backed tech job postings in Europe rose 25% in the first half of 2024 compared with the preceding six months. Founder views were mixed: 33% said the talent market had eased, while 34% still found hiring difficult. These figures describe Europe in that period, not current global demand or the odds of finding a particular senior role. Read State of European Tech.
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Does startup equity make up for lower cash compensation?
Not automatically. Salary, bonus and equity are different forms of compensation, and a grant’s headline value is not the same as cash in hand. Carta’s H1 2024 report found that average salary for senior individual contributors was the only job-level average that did not rise between May 2023 and April 2024. It also reported that average new-hire equity grants had declined substantially from November 2022, though they had been roughly stable since September 2023.
Carta later reported rising AI/ML compensation and larger initial equity grants at smaller startups. That is a field-specific finding; it should not be treated as a general pay trend for all senior engineers. Both Carta reports draw on companies using its platform, rather than a direct, like-for-like comparison of startup offers with Big Tech offers. See Carta’s H1 2024 compensation report.
To compare an offer, separate guaranteed cash from uncertain equity and examine the terms that determine what the grant could be worth:
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors- Cash: Compare salary and target bonus, not just a headline total-compensation figure.
- Equity instrument and grant: Identify what is being granted and how the stated value was calculated.
- Vesting and dilution: Understand the vesting schedule and how future fundraising could change your ownership percentage.
- Exercise window: For options, check how long you have to exercise after leaving and what exercising would cost.
- Liquidity assumptions: Ask what event would let you sell shares and when; do not treat a possible future sale as guaranteed compensation.
The available market data cannot value a specific offer. That requires the grant documents and company-specific information, as well as assumptions about liquidity and future financing.
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How to compare a startup offer with staying at a large company
Assess the actual role and employer, rather than relying on general claims that startups offer more autonomy, impact, flexibility or security. Those advantages are not established across startups; they are questions to test in interviews and diligence.
- Stability and financing: Ask about runway, business traction, hiring plans and how the role relates to core versus discretionary work. A survey finding that stability matters does not predict a specific company’s prospects.
- Scope and influence: Clarify decision-making authority, technical ownership, team size and how much hands-on work the role requires.
- Workplace and location: Confirm remote, hybrid or office expectations, plus any relocation or visa implications.
- Sector and stage: Treat hiring ratios as context, not a guarantee of openings or company health. Conditions vary across industries and regions.
- Total trade-off: Weigh the cash you can count on against equity risk, role scope, workplace expectations and your own need for stability.
What the evidence can—and cannot—tell you
The sources point to several real pressures and market conditions: office policies have been associated with retention changes at three major firms; job stability is a prominent concern in a broad US tech-worker survey; and startup hiring remains below its boom peak while differing by sector. They do not provide a representative estimate of how many senior engineers leave large technology companies for startups, or a direct survey of those movers’ reasons.
That distinction matters for anyone considering a move. Evidence that some workers leave a large employer does not reveal whether they were laid off, joined a competitor, started a company or chose a startup. Nor do sector-level hiring figures establish whether a specific company can offer a secure role or compelling equity.
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