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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchA bot should treat settlement as a sequence of rule-governed events, not as a single market-close timestamp. Polymarket’s reported TWAP60 rules apply to particular short-duration crypto Up/Down markets, while Kalshi contracts use their own written outcome criteria and named sources. Before comparing prices or automating a trade, check the exact market or contract rules and track when its outcome becomes final.
Why settlement design matters to a bot
Two markets can describe what sounds like the same event yet pay out under different criteria. The event’s apparent end, the trading cutoff, the measurement window, publication of source data, venue determination, final resolution, and payout can happen at different times. A bot that collapses these into one “settled” timestamp can act on incomplete data or treat unlike contracts as equivalent.
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For Polymarket, the Help Center says predefined rules under a market’s order book govern resolution through the UMA Optimistic Oracle. For Kalshi, the contract’s terms specify the outcome rule, information, and source. In both cases, the individual market’s or contract’s wording—not its headline—is the authority a bot needs to inspect.
What TWAP60 means for Polymarket markets
TWAP is a time-weighted average price. A TWAP60 rule uses a 60-second observation window, but that label by itself does not tell a bot which stream, boundary, or exact market configuration applies.
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Scope of the reported transition
A third-party market-data provider, outcome·tick, reports that Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets transitioned in stages: 15-minute markets after August 7, 2026 UTC, and 5-minute markets after August 14, 2026 UTC. It describes a 60-second TWAP lookback for both durations afterward and cautions that configurations can coexist. The provider’s publication date is not shown, and this account is not an official Polymarket or Chainlink announcement. Check the individual market’s raw configuration rather than inferring its rule from the date or duration.
What the label does not establish
- It does not establish that every Polymarket market uses TWAP60; the reported scope is particular short-duration crypto Up/Down markets.
- It does not, on its own, specify the exact observation boundary, stream selection, threshold treatment, precision, or fallback. Use only details documented for the specific market.
- It does not make an apparently similar Kalshi contract equivalent. The comparison must include both contracts’ complete payout criteria and measurement windows.
How Kalshi’s outcome timing differs from trading close
Kalshi says trading may end before or after an event and that settlement follows confirmation from the official source specified by the contract. Its Help Center says outcome determination can take from one hour to more than twelve hours after market close, depending on when source-agency data arrives. That is a stated range, not a fixed timer for every contract.
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Kalshi also says most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known, often within about three hours, while some take longer as they wait for official data. This is guidance, not a guarantee. The displayed close time is therefore not a safe substitute for determination or final settlement status.
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Keep the venues’ TWAP references separate
Kalshi’s Help Center describes an eight-hour TWAP used to calculate perpetual-futures funding: premiums from 480 one-minute candles are averaged over that period. That description concerns perpetual-futures funding, not the settlement rule for Kalshi event contracts. It is not evidence that Kalshi event contracts settle using Polymarket-style TWAP60.
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Compare the rules before pairing markets
| Question | Polymarket | Kalshi | Bot consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| What controls the outcome? | Predefined market rules under the order book; the Help Center describes UMA Optimistic Oracle resolution. | The contract’s terms specify the outcome rule, information, and source. | Fetch and parse the individual market or contract rule instead of inferring it from the title. |
| What data or observation applies? | For the reported crypto Up/Down markets, the third-party guide describes per-market Chainlink stream selection and TWAP lookback configuration. | The contract identifies its source and outcome information; details vary by contract. | Store the documented source, observation window, units, timezone, threshold, and fallback. |
| When can an outcome be determined? | A proposed resolution enters a two-hour challenge period, according to the Help Center; it does not give a universal total-resolution time. | Determination may take one hour to more than twelve hours after close, depending on source data. | Track cutoff, event end, source publication, determination, finality, and payout as separate milestones. |
| What does a TWAP reference establish? | The reported 60-second lookback concerns specified short-duration crypto Up/Down markets and should be checked against the market’s configuration. | The documented eight-hour TWAP concerns perpetual-futures funding, not event-contract settlement. | Do not match markets merely because both descriptions mention TWAP or a similar event. |
Model settlement as explicit bot states
Represent the lifecycle as separate states rather than assuming a close time means the result is final. A practical model can use internal labels such as these; they are implementation choices, not guaranteed venue API field names:
- Trading active or closed: record whether orders can still be placed, and the venue’s actual cutoff.
- Event completed: mark the event’s apparent end separately from the trading cutoff.
- Source data available: wait for the source named by the relevant rule and retain the data and timestamp used.
- Determination pending or proposed: record the venue’s announced outcome without treating it as final.
- Challenge or dispute: for Polymarket, account for the Help Center’s two-hour challenge period after a proposed resolution.
- Final resolution and payout: trigger downstream actions only after the venue’s actual final state and settlement are confirmed.
Implementation checks before comparing prices
- Read each market’s or contract’s own settlement text and translate it into the exact Yes/No criterion.
- Record the named oracle or data source and the market-specific configuration. For a reported Polymarket TWAP60 market, inspect its raw configuration rather than relying on its date or duration.
- Match the observation boundary, timezone, measurement window, threshold inclusivity, rounding or precision, and any stated source fallback. Do not fill gaps with assumptions.
- Keep trading status, event completion, source publication, determination, challenge or dispute, final resolution, and payout distinct in logs and state transitions.
- Pair cross-venue contracts only after comparing their written criteria, data sources, and measurement windows. A price difference alone does not establish a risk-free or profitable trade.
- Test the implementation against the actual rules and recorded data before relying on it; the cited guidance does not establish bot returns or a measured trading edge.
What the cited mechanics do—and do not—show
Polymarket’s Help Center describes a two-hour challenge period for proposed resolutions. Kalshi’s guidance describes a potentially delayed determination after close and a separate settlement process. The outcome·tick account reports a scoped TWAP60 transition, but it is third-party reporting that should be verified against each market configuration. These mechanics explain why settlement logic matters; they do not establish how often venues disagree, whether any cross-venue price gap exists, or whether a bot strategy is profitable.
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