For the U.S. S&P 500, October is not typically a losing month: a historical summary from S&P Dow Jones Indices says the index gained in 57.4% of Octobers and averaged a 0.46% rise. October’s frightening reputation has a basis, though: the month is associated with famous crashes and an outsized share of the index’s most extreme daily losses. A positive average return and unusually large swings can coexist.
Is October really the worst month for stocks?
Not according to the S&P 500 figures in S&P Dow Jones Indices’ October 2022 commentary. Its historical summary reports that the index rose in 57.4% of Octobers and averaged a 0.46% gain overall. The excerpted summary does not state the sample dates, so those figures should be read with that limitation rather than treated as a precisely dated all-history calculation. S&P Dow Jones Indices, October 2022 commentary
The average was shaped by a wide gap between positive and negative Octobers: S&P DJI reported an average gain of 4.18% in up Octobers and an average loss of 4.67% in down Octobers. That helps explain why a month that was positive more often than not still had an overall average gain of only 0.46%.
These are S&P 500 statistics, not a rule for every country, stock index, or asset class. They also describe historical outcomes; they do not indicate what the next October will do.
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Why does October have a scary reputation?
Several notorious market episodes happened in October, including the 1929 crash and Black Monday in 1987. October is also linked to volatility during the 2008 financial crisis. Such events are memorable, and there is a striking statistic behind the month’s reputation: S&P Dow Jones Indices reported in 2024 that 32% of the S&P 500’s 25 worst trading days occurred in October. S&P Dow Jones Indices, October 2024 commentary
That statistic counts a selected set of the index’s most extreme daily losses. It does not mean that October has the worst average monthly return, nor that a typical October ends lower. A handful of severe days can make the month feel unusually dangerous without determining its average monthly direction.
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How can October be strong and volatile at the same time?
Return and volatility answer different questions. Return tells you whether an investment gained or lost over a period; volatility describes how much its value moved along the way. A month can finish higher after sharp rises and falls, or finish lower after relatively modest moves.
Cboe’s 2021 account of VIX history since 2011 describes October as historically the S&P 500’s most volatile month, while July had the lowest average VIX reading in that data context. This is a volatility comparison, not a ranking of monthly returns. Cboe, “Inside Volatility Trading: A Day, A Week, A Year, A Decade”
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What have recent Octobers looked like?
Individual years show why a seasonal average should not be mistaken for a forecast. S&P Dow Jones Indices reported these S&P 500 October returns:
| October | S&P 500 return |
|---|---|
| 2022 | +7.99% S&P Dow Jones Indices |
| 2024 | -0.99% S&P Dow Jones Indices |
| 2025 | +2.27% S&P Dow Jones Indices |
The latest live figure available in the cited S&P DJI return page was +0.94% for the S&P 500 total-return index month-to-date as of October 2, 2026. That is a partial-month reading, not October’s final return. S&P Dow Jones Indices live return page
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What should investors take from October’s history?
- October’s reputation comes from exceptional market episodes and a concentration of some of the S&P 500’s worst daily losses.
- The historical S&P 500 summary cited by S&P DJI shows positive average October returns and gains in a majority of Octobers, but not in every year.
- Volatility and performance are distinct: a month may have large swings and still end with a gain.
- Historical seasonality describes what happened in the past; it is not a dependable signal for trading or a promise about the coming month.
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