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Will there be a geomagnetic storm on October 9?
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) wrote in its 3-Day Forecast, issued October 7, 2026, at 00:30 UTC, that “G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 07 Oct.” The forecast gives a maximum expected three-hour Kp of 5.67 across October 7–9, which falls in the G2 range. NOAA 3-Day Forecast
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The timing is not a guarantee of when or where effects will be strongest. NOAA’s Kp breakdown lists 5.00 for 03–06 UT and 5.67 for 09–12 UT on October 9. Those are forecast intervals in Universal Time; convert them to your local time zone when planning.
How NOAA divides the October 9 probabilities
A separate geomagnetic forecast issued October 6, 2026, at 22:05 UTC assigns the following probabilities for October 9. The categories are alternatives and sum to 100%; they are not separate risks to add together. NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast
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| Forecast category | Probability for October 9 |
|---|---|
| Active conditions | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% |
| Moderate storm | 45% |
| Strong-to-extreme storm | 10% |
These figures describe NOAA’s forecast at the stated issue time. Space-weather forecasts can change as observations of the CME and its approach are updated, so check the latest NOAA forecast close to the date.
What does a G2 geomagnetic storm mean?
NOAA classifies G2 as “Moderate” and associates the category with Kp=6 on its space-weather scale. The three-hour forecast value of 5.67 is in the G2 range; it does not mean every place will experience the same effects. NOAA lists possible effects including high-latitude power-system voltage alarms, spacecraft orientation corrections and changes to orbit predictions related to atmospheric drag, and high-latitude HF radio fading. NOAA Space Weather Scales
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NOAA’s scale also says aurora may be seen as low as New York and Idaho, typically around 55° geomagnetic latitude, during a G2 storm. That is a scale illustration—not a promise of visibility in either state during this event. Local darkness, weather, aurora strength, and viewing conditions matter.
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The multi-day G2 forecast is not a local aurora forecast. NOAA’s aurora product estimates aurora location and intensity over a much shorter 30–90-minute horizon. NOAA notes that aurora is not visible in daylight and, when bright and conditions are right, may be observed as far as 1,000 km away. NOAA Aurora 30 Minute Forecast
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- Check NOAA’s short-term aurora forecast near your intended viewing time.
- Choose a dark location and confirm local weather and visibility conditions.
- Treat any broad latitude or state-level guidance as a possibility, not a local visibility guarantee.
Are solar radiation storms or radio blackouts part of the G2 forecast?
They are different space-weather scales, not components of the geomagnetic G-level forecast. NOAA’s October 7 three-day forecast separately gives a 10% chance of an S1-or-greater solar radiation storm and a 45% chance of an R1–R2 radio blackout on October 9. NOAA 3-Day Forecast
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