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NASA’s GRACE satellites found that average freshwater storage on land was about 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic kilometers) lower from 2015 through 2023 than it was from 2002 through 2014. That is a comparison of satellite-derived averages—not a measurement of water people consumed, groundwater alone, or a uniform loss in every region. The finding points to a persistent global shift, while leaving its causes and future course unsettled.
What NASA’s satellites found
The decline began abruptly in May 2014, according to NASA’s account of a study published in Surveys in Geophysics. In the study’s comparison, average terrestrial freshwater storage during 2015–2023 was 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic kilometers) below the 2002–2014 average. NASA hydrologist and co-author Matthew Rodell compared that difference to 2.5 times the volume of Lake Erie. The comparison describes the gap between two period averages; it does not mean that this volume was drained, consumed, or lost from every part of the planet. NASA’s report on the study.
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The decline matters because land storage is a buffer: water held in soils, snowpack, lakes, wetlands, and aquifers can support ecosystems and people through dry periods. But a global storage anomaly is not a direct measure of whether a household, farm, or city has enough safe, accessible water. Local access also depends on infrastructure, water quality, distribution, and demand.
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NASA also reported that 13 of the 30 most intense droughts observed by GRACE occurred from January 2015 onward. That statistic describes drought events recorded by the mission; it does not, by itself, establish why the events happened or prove that groundwater pumping caused them. NASA’s report.
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What “freshwater stored on land” includes
The GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage measure is broader than groundwater. NASA’s freshwater availability dataset defines terrestrial water availability storage as groundwater, soil moisture, snow and ice, surface waters, and wet biomass. Its coverage runs from 2002 through 2016 at a grid resolution of 0.5 degrees. NASA’s dataset description.
Because multiple components contribute to the total, a lower reading does not reveal which component changed most in a particular place. Nor does it directly inventory how much water remains in each aquifer. Studies that estimate groundwater or aquifer stress can combine satellite observations with ground measurements, water-extraction records, and models; each method has its own assumptions and geographic scope.
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How GRACE measures changes in water storage
GRACE and its successor, GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), infer changes in water stored on and beneath land by measuring variations in Earth’s gravity field. Water has mass. When it moves or accumulates, it changes the local distribution of mass and therefore produces a small gravity signal. Comparing observations over time allows scientists to estimate changes in total stored water across broad areas.
The original GRACE mission operated from March 2002 to October 2017; GRACE-FO launched in May 2018. NASA’s mission overview. These satellites do not drill into aquifers or directly measure water quality, usable supply, or human access. Their strength is tracking large-scale changes in storage, not identifying the contents or condition of every local source.
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What may have driven the decline—and what remains uncertain
Drought and El Niño
NASA’s account traces the initial drop to a major drought in northern and central Brazil, followed by droughts across Australasia, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa. The 2014–2016 El Niño altered atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, contributing to drought conditions in several regions. Storage did not rebound after El Niño subsided, so that episode alone does not explain why the lower global level persisted. NASA’s account.
Warming-related effects and water use
NASA researchers discuss several possible reinforcing pressures, not a single proven explanation for the global signal. Warmer air can hold more water vapor; intense rainfall may run off quickly instead of soaking into the ground; and longer dry intervals can dry and compact soils. Groundwater pumping during drought and expanded irrigated agriculture can add pressure where rainfall and snowmelt do not replenish stores.
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NASA Goddard meteorologist Michael Bosilovich described the runoff mechanism this way: “The problem when you have extreme precipitation,” Bosilovich said, “is the water ends up running off,” instead of soaking in and replenishing groundwater stores. That is one mechanism discussed by the researchers, not proof that heavy rainfall or warming alone caused the long-term global change. NASA’s report.
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Global storage findings are not the same as regional aquifer estimates
Other NASA-reported findings document serious groundwater stress, but they concern different areas, periods, and measurements. They should not be added to or substituted for the global terrestrial-storage comparison.
| Finding | Scope and measure | What it does—and does not—show |
|---|---|---|
| 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic kilometers) lower average storage | Global terrestrial freshwater storage; compares 2015–2023 with 2002–2014 using GRACE and GRACE-FO observations | A difference between two averages of total land storage, not groundwater alone or a direct measure of water consumed. NASA, 2024. |
| 16.5 cubic miles (68.7 cubic kilometers) decline | Great Basin groundwater supply over about two decades, as described by NASA in 2024 while reporting a 2024 Geophysical Research Letters study | A regional groundwater estimate, not the global total-storage figure. Record snow in winter 2022–23 did not reverse the longer decline. NASA’s report. |
| 13 of 37 large aquifers classified as depleted while receiving little to no recharge; eight overstressed and five highly stressed | A separate set of large-aquifer studies described by NASA in 2015, using their own periods, definitions, and methods | Not a current global inventory and not the finding behind the 2024 storage comparison. NASA’s aquifer explainer. |
GRACE-based drought maps also require care in interpretation. NASA says its data-assimilation maps depict wetness and drought associated with climatic variability; they are not proof that withdrawals exceed recharge or that groundwater is being depleted by pumping. NASA’s GRACE data page.
What the finding can—and cannot—tell people
- It can show: broad changes in the amount of water stored across land over time, including the combined signal from groundwater, soil moisture, snow and ice, surface water, and wet biomass.
- It cannot show on its own: the remaining volume of each aquifer, whether a specific community has reliable drinking water, or whether a particular drought resulted from pumping rather than climate variability.
- It does not establish: uniform global scarcity, inevitable collapse, or a definitive climate-change attribution.
- It does support: close attention to persistent low storage and regional groundwater stress, alongside local measurements and evidence about withdrawals, recharge, and access.
NASA’s 2015 account of aquifer research emphasized that estimates of water stored in individual aquifers remain uncertain. Likewise, the global satellite result is most useful as a large-scale indicator that needs regional context—not as a substitute for local water accounting. NASA’s aquifer explainer.
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