A 2026 study result reported an average 14.3% increase in U.S. traffic fatalities on the day after the ten deadliest shootings in its 2008–2023 sample—an estimated 19.9 additional deaths nationally. That is a reported short-term association, not proof that the shootings caused crashes or a forecast of what follows every mass shooting.
What did the study find?
The reported next-day estimate
The study authors used the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to examine motor-vehicle crash fatalities around ten especially deadly shootings from 2008 through 2023. They reported that fatalities averaged 14.3% higher on the following day, corresponding to an estimated 19.9 additional deaths nationally. The reported 95% confidence interval for that estimate was 12.7 to 27.1 deaths.
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What the number does—and does not—describe
The estimate concerns one day after a selected set of ten shootings. It is not an annual total, a long-term trend, or an estimate for every shooting or every incident called a mass shooting. An association observed around these events does not establish that the shootings caused the traffic deaths, explain how any relationship might work, or rule out other factors.
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“Mass shooting” has no single definition used by every organization. The U.S. Surgeon General’s 2024 advisory describes two different thresholds: a Congressional Research Service definition that counts an event with at least four firearm-killed victims, and a Gun Violence Archive definition that counts four or more people shot or killed, excluding the shooter. The broader threshold can include incidents in which fewer than four victims die.
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The FBI’s active-shooter category is different: it refers to “one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area.” It has no fixed victim-count threshold, so active-shooter totals should not be relabeled as totals for all mass shootings.
How do the available figures differ?
| Measure | Reported figure | What it counts and why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Traffic fatalities after selected shootings | 14.3% average increase the following day; estimated 19.9 additional deaths nationally (95% CI, 12.7–27.1) | Study authors’ 2026 result for the day after the ten deadliest shootings in their 2008–2023 sample, using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. It is a short-window traffic-fatality estimate, not a mass-shooting victim count. |
| All firearm-related deaths | More than 48,000 in 2022 | The CDC reported that more than half were suicides and more than four in ten were firearm homicides. These are all firearm deaths, not deaths in mass shootings. |
| Mass-shooting incidents in the advisory’s GVA-based summary | More than 600 annually in 2020–2023, compared with an average below 400 annually in 2015–2018 | The Surgeon General’s 2024 advisory summarized Gun Violence Archive counts under its broader definition. These are incident totals, not FBI active-shooter counts or fatality totals. |
| FBI active-shooter incidents | 24 in 2024, down from 48 in 2023 | The FBI’s 2025 report counts incidents meeting its active-shooter definition. The figures are not a count of all incidents meeting either mass-shooting threshold above. |
| Mass-shooting deaths as a share of firearm deaths | About 1% | The Surgeon General’s 2024 advisory gave this approximate share using the definitions and source data described in its notes. It is not a timeless or definition-independent ratio. |
These figures answer different questions. A count of people shot, a count of victims killed, an all-firearm-death total, an active-shooter incident count, and a next-day traffic-fatality estimate cannot be substituted for one another. In particular, the CDC’s firearm-death total should not be used as a count of mass-shooting victims.
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How can you compare these statistics responsibly?
Before comparing two figures, check that they share the same scope. State:
- Definition: whether an incident requires a certain number of people killed, people shot or killed, or meets the FBI’s active-shooter description.
- Outcome: whether the number refers to incidents, people shot, victims killed, or deaths from a separate cause such as traffic crashes.
- Time and selection: the years covered, the time window around an event, and whether the figure covers all qualifying incidents or a selected subset.
- Population and geography: the location and, where relevant, age range covered.
- Measure: whether the figure is a raw count or a rate. A count and a population rate do not express the same thing.
For broader injury-death comparisons, the CDC’s WISQARS interface allows users to compare selected causes and years. The CDC warns that some estimates may be unstable or suppressed. Those flags matter: an unavailable or unstable value should not be treated as a precise count.
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What remains uncertain about the traffic result?
The PubMed-indexed study result provides the headline design and estimate, but the full article methods were not available in the material supporting this account. The exact rule used to select the ten shootings, the model specification, statistical adjustments, and any proposed mechanism therefore remain unverified. The estimate is best understood within its reported sample and one-day window, not generalized beyond them.
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