Satellite measurements suggest Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua has two distinct zones of magma-related activity: a deeper reservoir beneath the caldera and a much shallower source beneath Santiago crater. The finding comes from models of ground movement, not a direct image of magma underground. It does not show that an eruption is imminent.
What did the study find beneath Masaya?
In a paper published July 23, 2026, E. Johnson, Y. C. Kim and C. Wauthier used satellite radar measurements to infer two active sources in Masaya’s magma plumbing system. Their preferred model places the Masaya Central Reservoir (MCR) at about 3.2 kilometers beneath the caldera, and a second, shallower source about 200 meters below the Santiago crater area. Both are modeled interpretations of surface deformation; neither is a chamber directly seen by satellite.
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| Inferred source | Approximate location and depth | Deformation pattern in the study | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masaya Central Reservoir (MCR) | Beneath the caldera, about 3.2 km deep | About 3 cm of line-of-sight displacement away from the satellite from 2018 to mid-2022; the broader signal shifted toward the satellite from mid-2022 to February 2024 | Deflation followed by likely renewed inflation |
| Santiago crater-area source | Beneath Santiago crater, about 200 m deep | Localized deflation continued throughout the study window | A shallow deflating source, distinct from the deeper reservoir’s later change |
The depths and source locations are the authors’ preferred geodetic model, not measurements of the boundaries of physical chambers. The paper’s central result is that the two deformation patterns can be better explained by separate sources than by one uniform source.
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The team analyzed Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series from January 2018 through February 2024. InSAR compares radar observations collected at different times to measure changes in the distance between the ground and satellite along the radar’s line of sight. Those measurements reveal surface movement; scientists then use geodetic models to infer what underground sources could produce it.
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For the deeper MCR, the study reports roughly 3 centimeters of line-of-sight movement away from the satellite between 2018 and mid-2022, interpreted as continued deflation. From mid-2022 through the end of the analyzed period in February 2024, the broader MCR signal shifted toward the satellite, which the authors interpret as likely renewed inflation and magma supply from depth. Meanwhile, the Santiago crater area kept deflating.
“Inflation” and “deflation” describe inferred changes in a source’s volume based on the ground’s movement. They are not direct readings of magma entering or leaving a chamber. A discussion in the paper refers to an extended time series through April 2026, but the core analysis window reported for the study is January 2018 to February 2024; those dates should not be treated as interchangeable.
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Does a second reservoir mean Masaya is about to erupt?
No. The study identifies a more complex pattern of deformation and offers a better-constrained model of magma storage. It does not forecast an imminent eruption. The researchers say the result does not by itself explain why Masaya can shift between intrusive, effusive and explosive behavior, and that longer-term geodetic observations and modeling are needed to understand those transitions and improve hazard monitoring.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallMasaya is a basaltic shield volcano and complex caldera system with an active vent at Santiago crater. The paper notes persistent degassing, a history of large explosive eruptions, and that the last major lava flow occurred in 1772. It also reports that about 2 million people live within 20 kilometers of the volcano. That is a proximity estimate, not a claim that every person in that area has the same exposure to hazards.
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The paper separately identifies persistent sulfur dioxide as a known hazard. That ongoing gas risk is not evidence that the newly modeled deformation is an eruption warning. The study’s value is in improving understanding of the volcano’s subsurface behavior and supporting future monitoring, not in establishing a near-term threat.
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What remains uncertain?
- The sources are inferred. Radar detects surface displacement, and models connect it to possible underground sources; the satellites do not image magma directly.
- The two-source model is not a complete explanation of Masaya’s eruptions. The finding does not resolve why the volcano alternates among intrusive, effusive and explosive activity.
- The observation period has limits. The main analysis ends in February 2024, even though the article’s discussion mentions a time-series extension through April 2026.
- Population proximity is not a measure of individual risk. The estimate of about 2 million people within 20 kilometers does not specify equal exposure or predict who would be affected by a future event.
Sources
- E. Johnson, Y. C. Kim and C. Wauthier, “Double Trouble: Two Active Magma Reservoirs Identified at Masaya Volcano, Nicaragua, Using Satellite Geodesy,” Geophysical Research Letters, first published July 23, 2026. Read the research paper.
- Ellyn Lapointe, “2 Million People Live Near ‘Mouth of Hell’ Volcano. It May Be Hiding a Second Magma Chamber,” Gizmodo, October 5, 2026. Read the report.
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