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Why weak client spending affects the models differently
Services can feel delays in new work
IT services firms often earn revenue by delivering projects or contracts. When customers become cautious, they can postpone starting a project, reduce its scope or defer discretionary work. That can weaken bookings before it becomes visible in reported revenue, especially when a company depends on short-duration assignments.
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Gartner’s 2Q24 IT services outlook, published September 5, 2024, described delayed large deals and reduced expenditure, particularly discretionary spending. Gartner revised its services market growth outlook down by 150 basis points amid cautious spending, higher capital costs and slower-than-anticipated generative AI spending. This is evidence of the pressures described in that 2024 outlook, not a forecast of current market conditions.
A market forecast and near-term buying behavior can also point in different directions. In March 2024, Gartner forecast 9.7% growth in the worldwide IT services market in U.S. dollars for that year, while noting that enterprises were expected to remain cautious about new project signings in the first half. The figure was a forecast, not the realized growth rate. Gartner’s March 2024 forecast illustrates why broad market growth does not necessarily mean every provider can count on prompt project commitments.
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Subscriptions can smooth timing, but not remove demand risk
A subscription base can provide more revenue visibility than having to win a new project for every period. However, recurring revenue is not guaranteed revenue: customers can fail to renew, reduce the scope of a subscription, delay purchases or stop expanding their use. Product companies may also earn money from consulting, implementation, hardware or one-time licenses, so the label alone does not reveal how much income is recurring.
Company filings show why the distinction matters, but they are examples rather than a controlled comparison. Teradata reported FY2025 total revenue of $1.663 billion, down 5% from FY2024; recurring revenue of $1.445 billion, down 2%; and consulting services revenue of $201 million, down 19%. The company said the consulting decline was expected after lower order-booking activity in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. These figures show that a company with substantial recurring revenue can still see that revenue decline, and that its services business may move differently from its recurring stream. Teradata’s FY2025 Form 10-K provides the company’s definitions and reported results.
By contrast, Vertex said the vast majority of its revenue came from recurring software subscriptions. Its reported annual recurring revenue (ARR) was $671.0 million at year-end 2025, up 11.3% year over year. Vertex describes ARR as an indicator of future subscription revenue; it is not the same as recognized revenue, nor does one company’s growth establish that product companies generally outperform services firms in weak spending conditions. See Vertex’s 2025 Form 10-K.
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The risk depends on what the service does and how it is contracted. A short, discretionary project is easier for a client to delay than work needed to keep systems running, address security or compliance needs, or support essential operations. Ongoing managed services may also be more durable than one-off implementation work, though no contract type guarantees spending will continue unchanged.
Accenture’s FY2025 annual report described continued demand alongside a slower pace and level of client spending, particularly for smaller contracts with shorter duration. That is the company’s account of its own business, not a market-wide measurement, but it reinforces the need to distinguish contract size and term rather than treating all services revenue as one category. Accenture’s FY2025 annual report gives the company’s discussion.
How to compare two companies fairly
Compare the same reporting periods and geographies, and separate revenue streams rather than comparing broad labels. A product company with substantial consulting revenue is not directly comparable to a subscription-heavy software provider; neither is necessarily comparable to a services firm built around multiyear managed contracts.
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- Revenue durability: Identify the share from subscriptions, maintenance or managed services versus projects, one-time licenses, hardware and implementation. Check how each company defines these categories.
- Renewal and expansion: Review retention, renewal rates, churn and net expansion where disclosed. Recurring contracts still depend on customers continuing or expanding them.
- Near-term demand: Track bookings, backlog, pipeline conversion and the duration of signed work. Backlog can indicate future work, but it is not the same as revenue already recognized.
- Deferrability and criticality: Ask whether customers can postpone the offering without operational, security, compliance or revenue consequences. Work that is difficult to defer may be more resilient than discretionary projects.
- Concentration and mix: Consider dependence on large customers, particular industries or geographies. These exposures can matter more than whether a company sells services or products.
- Pricing and scope: Look for discounts, renegotiations, reduced customer scope and delivery costs—not just headline revenue growth.
What the evidence does—and does not—show
The available examples do not form a matched historical test of services firms against product companies. Gartner’s 2024 market outlook describes spending pressures at that time; Teradata’s and Vertex’s FY2025 filings report different outcomes for individual businesses; Accenture’s annual report discusses its own contract mix. The defensible conclusion is about mechanisms, not a universal winner: project timing can expose some services revenue to client caution, while recurring subscriptions can improve visibility but remain vulnerable to churn, downsizing and weak expansion.
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For an investment or business assessment, state the company, period, geography and revenue definitions. Then judge whether its actual work is recurring or project-led, essential or discretionary, and supported by renewals or fresh bookings. That operating evidence is more useful than the “services” or “product” label.
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