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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsSpaceX may look cheap relative to its projected growth, but that is one analyst’s conditional thesis—not a settled valuation. In an October 5, 2026 report described by Benzinga, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, arguing that growth in AI computing, Starship and connectivity could justify a high headline valuation. Morningstar’s June 2026 analysis was far more cautious, estimating probability-weighted fair value at $63 per share under its assumptions. These are different analyses from different dates, not directly comparable current quotes or a consensus view.
The key question is whether SpaceX can turn ambitious plans for AI computing and reusable rockets into profitable businesses quickly enough to justify the expectations embedded in its valuation. The available price references below are historical report inputs; they do not establish a live share price on October 13, 2026.
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Why Morgan Stanley’s analyst says SpaceX could be cheap
Benzinga reported that Jonas titled his Morgan Stanley note “Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” His argument was not that SpaceX had a low conventional valuation. It was that projected growth could make its valuation look more reasonable than the headline multiple suggests.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Headline valuation versus growth-adjusted valuation
Using a $159 reference price, Jonas estimated SpaceX at roughly 30 times projected 2028 enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT). Benzinga said his comparison group of large-cap AI enablers was at about 16 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT. On that measure alone, SpaceX looked more expensive.
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Jonas’s comparison changed when he adjusted the multiples for expected growth: his estimate was about 0.3 times EV/EBIT-to-growth for SpaceX, against a median of about 0.5 times for the selected group. At his $300 target, Benzinga reported the growth-adjusted figure would be about 0.6 times. These are Morgan Stanley estimates reported by Benzinga, not audited results or independently verified forecasts. A growth-adjusted multiple can make a fast-growing company appear inexpensive, but only if the growth assumptions materialize.
How much value the thesis assigns to AI
In Jonas’s sum-of-the-parts framing, the $159 reference price implied about $127 per share for SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses, leaving roughly $32 per share as the market-implied value for AI. His own model assigned $165 per share to enterprise AI after applying a 50% execution-risk discount. Those amounts describe one analyst’s valuation model; they are not separate market prices or guaranteed business values.
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The model is sensitive to the price customers might pay for computing capacity. Benzinga reported Jonas’s observation that compute pricing and deployment “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.” It also reported that a $10-per-watt increase in one consensus pricing assumption could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue estimates. That is a modeled sensitivity, not revenue SpaceX has earned or a prediction that the price increase will occur.
Why Morningstar’s valuation is much lower
Morningstar’s June 8, 2026 report, coauthored by Nicolas Owens, Equity Analyst, Aerospace & Defense, used a probability-weighted discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. It estimated fair value at $63 per share and compared that with the then-upcoming $135 offering price. Morningstar assigned a 7% probability to its optimistic “Moonshot” scenario and argued that the offering price required a much higher likelihood of that outcome. The $63 estimate and $135 reference are historical figures from that analysis, not current targets or prices.
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Morningstar’s caution centered on two outcomes it considered unresolved: rapidly reusable Starship and commercially competitive orbital data centers. In its June analysis, the firm did not expect either rapidly reusable Starship or commercially scalable orbital data centers to be resolved before 2028. Its estimate therefore reflects not just a different view of future growth, but also different assumptions about the chance, timing and value of that growth.
Morningstar summarized its position this way: “The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain.” That is the firm’s assessment as reported in its June 8 analysis—not a claim that the bullish case is impossible.
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How the two valuations differ
| Question | Morgan Stanley view, as reported by Benzinga | Morningstar view |
|---|---|---|
| Method | Growth-adjusted valuation and a sum-of-the-parts model | Probability-weighted DCF valuation |
| Key upside drivers | AI-compute growth and pricing, Starship catalysts, and connectivity | Successful AI commercialization and rapidly reusable Starship in its optimistic scenario |
| Main uncertainty | Compute pricing and deployment, plus AI and Starship execution | Whether orbital AI economics and rapid Starship reusability can be achieved |
| Date and price context | October 5, 2026 report; cited a $159 reference price and a $300 target | June 2026 analysis; estimated $63 fair value against a then-upcoming $135 offering price |
| Important context | Benzinga reported that Morgan Stanley co-managed a SpaceX offering in the preceding year and received investment banking fees from the company. | The $63 estimate is a dated, assumption-dependent valuation, not a current price target. |
The $300 and $63 figures should not be read as competing targets issued at the same time. They come from different dates, valuation methods and price contexts. The useful comparison is what each model assumes about growth, execution, timing and the probability of success.
What could change the bullish case
AI-compute demand, pricing and deployment
The AI portion of the bullish valuation depends on customers paying for computing capacity and SpaceX deploying it at scale. Lower prices, slower deployment or weaker demand could reduce the value Jonas’s model assigns to enterprise AI. Higher assumed pricing can have a large effect on modeled revenue, which is why a sensitivity in a forecast should not be mistaken for a committed contract or realized sales.
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Starship reusability and test outcomes
A more reusable Starship could strengthen the economics of launching spacecraft and support plans for orbital infrastructure. But a successful test or a vehicle catch is a milestone, not proof of reliable, economical operations at scale. Benzinga reported Jonas’s view that a possible ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” Treat that as an analyst’s catalyst view, not a guaranteed timetable or outcome. The same account described downside scenarios including slower AI progress, a serious Starship test setback or a dilutive capital raise.
Connectivity and the spectrum acquisition
Axios reported on October 9, 2026, that SpaceX had announced a deal to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum tied to its Starlink mobile ambitions. Spectrum could help extend service in places where satellite connectivity struggles, including indoors, but owning spectrum does not by itself build the physical network needed for broad terrestrial mobile coverage. Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei told Axios, “Buying spectrum is not a commitment to build a nationwide network,” while saying the spectrum made that option more credible and less expensive. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell told Axios, “I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better.” Her statement expresses the company’s expectation, not evidence that the customer gains or network buildout have occurred.
What to check before deciding whether it is cheap
A valuation claim is only as useful as its inputs. Before relying on either analyst’s view, check the current share price and the latest company disclosures, then ask:
- How much of the valuation depends on AI businesses that are still being developed, rather than established operating results?
- What compute prices, customer demand and deployment schedule are assumed—and how would the valuation change if those inputs disappoint?
- What operational evidence would show Starship is becoming reliably reusable and economically useful, rather than merely passing an individual test?
- Does a spectrum acquisition lead to a funded network buildout, and what infrastructure would be needed to provide the intended coverage?
- How much uncertainty can you accept in a valuation that depends on several difficult technical and commercial milestones?
Targets and forecasts can change, and the $159, $300, $63 and $135 figures in the cited reports do not establish a current market price. A reader assessing value needs updated market and company information; the two dated analyses are best used to understand how sharply the answer depends on assumptions.
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