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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing Prices Index climbed to 77.9 in September 2026 from 71.1 in August. That is a 6.8-point increase; expressed as a relative change from August’s index level, it is about 9.6%—the basis for describing the move as roughly 10% higher. It is not a 10% increase in prices, and it does not by itself show that consumer inflation is about to accelerate.
What the September reading says
ISM’s Manufacturing PMI Prices Index is a diffusion index: it indicates whether surveyed manufacturers are seeing prices rise or fall, not the size of price changes. In its September 2026 report, published October 1, ISM reported a reading of 77.9, up from 71.1 in August. The official change is 6.8 index points. The roughly 9.6% relative change is calculated by comparing that point increase with August’s index level; it should not be mistaken for the rate at which manufacturers’ costs or prices rose.
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Responses show the breadth behind the index: 58.6% of respondents said prices were higher in September, compared with 46.2% in August. ISM also reported that 16 industries saw higher raw-material prices and none reported lower prices.
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Does this mean another wave of consumer inflation is coming?
Not on its own. The reading is a warning of stronger upstream price pressure among manufacturers, not a measurement of what households are paying. ISM says that, over time, a Manufacturing PMI Prices Index above 52.8 is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials. That relationship is a broad historical signal, not a promise that a particular reading will produce a particular PPI result.
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Nor is the ISM index the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or a forecast of the CPI. Whether manufacturers pass higher input costs through to their customers, how much they pass on, and when are not established by the September survey. The reading identifies pressure in the supply chain; it cannot quantify its eventual effect on retail prices.
What manufacturers said was pushing prices up
ISM attributed September’s pressure to steel and aluminum, tariffs on imported goods, and petroleum-based products amid the Middle East conflict. Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said: “The Prices Index reading is still being driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict.” These are ISM’s explanation of the survey result, not a measured breakdown of how much each factor contributed.
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How to read this alongside other price gauges
Several indicators describe different stages of price pressure. Their readings should not be compared as if they used interchangeable scales.
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| Gauge | What it measures | Timing and limitation |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index | A monthly national diffusion index reflecting surveyed manufacturers’ reports of input-price direction; it is not a percentage change in prices. | ISM’s September 2026 reading was 77.9. It signals reported pressure, not the amount that costs rose or the eventual effect on consumer prices. |
| Federal Reserve manufacturing-survey average | An average of prices-paid measures from ISM and the Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys. | The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report includes observations only through June 2026, so it predates September’s increase and does not confirm it. |
| BLS PPI for Intermediate Materials | Producer-price data for intermediate materials, a realized price measure rather than a survey diffusion index. | ISM describes its Prices Index as generally consistent with an increase in this PPI when the ISM reading is above 52.8 over time. The survey does not supply a September PPI result or a one-for-one conversion. |
What to watch next
- Whether the ISM reading stays elevated: One monthly jump shows a change in survey responses, not whether pressure will persist.
- Whether producer-price data corroborate it: The relevant comparison in ISM’s threshold statement is the BLS PPI for Intermediate Materials, not the CPI.
- Whether costs reach consumer prices: The survey does not measure pass-through. Consumer-price effects require separate evidence and can differ by product and timing.
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