Satellite imagery can help establish what a site looked like before and after a reported strike. It cannot, by itself, show that a drone was used or identify who carried out an attack. A sound assessment combines dated imagery with geolocation, credible independent reporting, and a clear account of what remains uncertain.
The methods described here are transferable open-source techniques used to investigate conflict incidents and alleged airstrikes generally; they are not a drone-specific detection method.
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What satellite imagery can—and cannot—establish
An image records the state of a location at the time it was captured. Comparing images from before and after a reported incident may reveal changes such as a collapsed roof, debris, scorch marks, or a crater. Those changes can support an assessment that damage occurred at that site during a particular interval.
They do not necessarily reveal when or how the damage happened. Imagery alone cannot identify a weapon, establish that a drone was involved, prove an attacker’s identity or responsibility, or confirm casualty numbers. Those conclusions require other evidence and should be stated only to the extent that the evidence supports them.
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A useful investigation therefore separates three questions: where the material was made, when the relevant images were captured, and what the combined evidence supports about the reported event.
1. Define the claim and keep a source log
Before interpreting an image, write down the claim you are checking. Record the wording, alleged location and time, who made the claim, when it appeared, and what evidence accompanied it. Preserve the URL and the date you collected each item.
Look for the earliest available post, file, photograph, or video. A repost is not a second independent witness merely because it appears on another account or website. Note whether each item is primary material—such as footage posted by its apparent recorder—or a report repeating someone else’s account.
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2. Preserve material and document your work
Keep original files where it is lawful and safe to do so, along with their URLs and relevant metadata. Record when you collected them; online content can be edited, removed, or recirculated without context. Do not assume that a screenshot preserves all information contained in an original file.
Maintain research notes that connect each conclusion to the evidence behind it. The Bellingcat workflow separates identification, collection and preservation, verification, analysis, review and confirmation, and presentation. Its Ukraine investigations manual likewise recommends organizing notes and linking evidence items so another reviewer can follow the reasoning.
3. Geolocate the claimed site
Begin with features visible in the original photo or video, not with a location asserted in a caption. Look for distinctive road layouts, building shapes, terrain, water features, or infrastructure. Compare several of these features against mapping and satellite sources, then explain which matches led you to the proposed location.
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Coordinates are a conclusion, not automatic proof of where an image was made. A location is more persuasive when multiple distinctive features line up and the material can be compared with independent local reporting or other evidence. If the match is broad rather than exact, describe it as an approximate area instead of giving false precision.
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Record how you reached the location assessment and link each supporting item in your notes or published analysis. Bellingcat/GLAN’s incident methodology treats geolocation and cross-referencing as parts of the analysis, rather than as substitutes for it.
4. Establish when the satellite image was captured
Find the closest usable imagery from before and after the alleged incident. For every image, record the provider and capture date—and the capture time if available. Preserve the source image or a reliable reference to it, and credit the provider when presenting it. The Bellingcat/GLAN Ukraine manual notes that a displayed date in services such as Google Earth Pro can reflect the viewer’s location, so check what the date represents before using it to build a timeline.
Do not confuse the date an image became available with the date it was captured. Before relying on an image, check the factors that determine whether it can answer your particular question:
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| Capture date and time | Confirm the acquisition date shown by the provider and the meaning of any displayed time or date. | A date that is misread or reflects a viewer’s location can distort the event timeline. |
| Resolution and accuracy | Check the provider’s description of image detail and positional accuracy. | An image may show a broad change while being too coarse or imprecise to support a claim about a particular structure. |
| Revisit frequency and latency | Check how often the area may be imaged and how long data can take to become available. | The nearest available image may still be too early, too late, or separated from the incident by a long interval. |
| Cloud conditions | Check whether clouds or other image conditions obscure the site. | Obscured areas can hide changes or make comparisons unreliable. |
| Coverage and access | Check for geographic gaps, restrictions, licensing conditions, or reduced-resolution coverage. | Some sensitive areas may be unavailable or represented at reduced detail; access conditions can also limit reuse. |
Bellingcat’s imagery toolkit warns that satellite data may not be up to date and that currency and latency vary. A missing or unclear image is not evidence that nothing happened.
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5. Compare changes carefully
Compare the same area in dated images, at a similar scale and orientation where possible. Describe what is visibly different without assigning a cause prematurely: for example, “the roof appears intact in the earlier image and collapsed in the later one.” If you use marked-up images, make clear what is original and what you have added.
Damage, debris, scorch marks, craters, or vehicle changes may corroborate a report, but they do not on their own establish that a strike caused them. The images may not show the moment of an attack, and the change may predate the claim or have another cause. Connect a visible change to the reported incident only when the timing and independent evidence support that interpretation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.6. Corroborate the account and test alternatives
Compare the imagery with independently sourced eyewitness material, local and international media, NGO reporting, official statements, and other open-source evidence. Ask whether the accounts refer to the same place and time, what the site was used for, what was nearby, and whether the reported timeline fits the image dates.
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The Yemen collection protocol uses at least three cross-referenced sources for its “confirmed” incident grade. That is the standard of that project, not a universal rule for every investigation; what matters in any assessment is explaining the evidence and method behind its confidence level. If the material does not support a conclusion, say that the incident remains unsubstantiated or that the cause is unknown rather than filling the gap with an assumption.
7. State the finding and its limits
Lead with the conclusion and a plainly described confidence level. Separate direct observations from interpretations: what the image shows, what other sources report, and what those combined facts suggest are different kinds of statements. Explain how you established location and chronology, identify the imagery provider and capture date, and link the evidence so readers can inspect the basis for the assessment.
Be especially careful with casualty figures and responsibility. Bellingcat/GLAN’s Yemen methodology notes that casualty reporting can conflict and cautions against counting deaths without direct examinable evidence; the Ukraine manual also warns against unsupported totals. Attribute figures and responsibility claims to their sources unless they have been independently established. Where accounts differ, describe the disagreement or report a supported range rather than presenting a disputed number as settled fact.
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