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A NOAA seasonal outlook cannot tell you how many inches of snow your area will get. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts the odds of seasonal average temperatures and total precipitation falling into above-, near-, or below-normal categories. Use it for broad climate context; use a local National Weather Service forecast for a particular storm, travel day, or snow amount.
What a seasonal outlook can—and cannot—tell you
CPC’s seasonal maps describe probabilities for average temperature and total precipitation across a broad season and area. They do not predict storm dates, daily weather, snowfall totals, or how many snow events will occur. NOAA explicitly says its outlook “does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.” NOAA’s winter outlook explanation
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So “Will it be a snowy winter?” is not answered by either seasonal map alone. The precipitation outlook concerns all precipitation, which can fall as rain, snow, or other forms. Temperature matters to the chance that precipitation falls as snow, but the seasonal temperature and precipitation categories do not resolve the local conditions of individual storms.
How to read the A, B, and N categories
The CPC map uses three categories: A means above normal, B below normal, and N near normal. Each category corresponds to a tercile—the lower third, middle third, or upper third of the historical distribution for that place and season. The probabilities assigned to all three categories add to 100%. CPC’s guide to reading three-category outlook maps
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- The letter identifies the favored category in the shaded area.
- The shading indicates the probability assigned to that category; it is not a measure of how far above or below normal conditions are expected to be.
- The probability is compared with an equal one-third chance, or about 33.33%, for each category. A probability above that baseline means the category is favored—not certain.
For example, a favored above-normal precipitation category does not specify a rainfall or snowfall amount. It says only that above-normal total precipitation is more likely than either of the other categories within the outlook’s defined seasonal distribution.
What “equal chances” means
“Equal chances” (EC) means the forecast tools do not favor one category over the others in that area. It is not a guarantee that the season will be exactly normal; it means no category is favored. The category definitions and probability explanation are on CPC’s map-reading guide.
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Does above-average precipitation mean more snow?
No. An above-normal precipitation outlook is not a snowfall forecast. It may indicate higher odds of wetter-than-normal conditions overall, but it does not say what share will fall as snow, whether temperatures will support snow during a storm, or how much snow will accumulate. Read the temperature and precipitation outlooks together for broad context, without treating them as a direct snowfall map.
Check the forecast discussion accompanying the maps to see what signals and tools support the seasonal outlook. Also note the exact period and issue date: CPC updates its three-month outlook monthly. Its official page includes outlook discussions, text formats, tools, and climatological values. The listed climatological baseline should be checked for the specific outlook: the older map-reading guide describes 1981–2010 observations, while the current outlook page labels its climatological values 1991–2020. CPC’s official seasonal outlooks
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How much confidence should you put in the outlook?
Probability shading is not an accuracy score. CPC defines forecast skill by comparing performance with a standard, often the long-term 30-year average, or climatology. One measure CPC describes is the Heidke skill score: 0 means performance is no better than chance, 100 is perfect, and −50 is the worst possible score. Skill depends on the variable being forecast and the location, so a map’s probability level alone does not establish how accurate that outlook is. CPC’s skill score explanation
The cited CPC materials do not provide a universal skill score for seasonal snowfall outlook accuracy. That is consistent with the seasonal product’s stated scope: it forecasts temperature and total precipitation categories, not seasonal snowfall totals.
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Which forecast to use for a snowstorm or travel day
For an event-level question—whether snow is expected on a certain day, how much may accumulate, or whether travel could be affected—use current local National Weather Service forecasts and winter-weather products as the date approaches. NOAA’s guidance is that snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week ahead; treat that as a rule of thumb, not a guarantee for every forecast or region.
Choose information by matching it to the question:
| Question | Best-fit information | What it provides |
|---|---|---|
| Are seasonal temperature or total precipitation categories favored? | CPC seasonal outlook | Broad-area probabilities for a defined season, not local snow totals. |
| Could a particular storm affect my area? | Current local NWS forecast | Near-term weather information for a location and event. |
| How much snow might fall or affect travel? | Current local NWS forecast and winter-weather products | Event-focused snow and impact information as the date approaches. |
NOAA’s 2023 overview described a three-day Winter Storm Severity Index and a probabilistic version covering seven days at that time. Product details and operational status can change, so check the current Weather Prediction Center or local NWS pages rather than assuming a particular product is currently available.
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