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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchWhen revenue stops growing, build your base forecast on flat sales—not an assumed recovery—and estimate when customer payments will actually arrive. Start with the cash in your bank, map receipts and payments into weekly or monthly periods, and carry each period’s closing balance forward. The result shows when cash could fall below the amount needed to meet obligations, giving you time to investigate the gap and make decisions.
What a cash-flow forecast tells you
A cash-flow forecast estimates money coming into and leaving the business over future periods, including the opening and closing cash balances. It is not a profit forecast: a sale can be recorded before the customer pays, and a profitable business can still face a cash shortage when bills fall due. New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment defines a forecast as an estimate of money in and out for a future period; its guidance was last reviewed on 15 July 2025. Read the government’s cash-flow forecasting guidance.
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Choose a forecast period that fits the decision
Use weekly periods for near-term liquidity
Choose weekly periods when payroll, supplier bills, rent, debt payments, or customer collections could create a short-term squeeze. Weekly detail makes it easier to see whether a receipt is expected after a payment is due. New Zealand government guidance says daily or weekly forecasting can help with day-to-day operations, and the British Business Bank’s practical guide uses weekly or monthly forecasts.
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Use monthly periods for operating plans
A monthly forecast can be easier to maintain for operating plans and longer-range decisions. If you are worried about immediate cash, keep a weekly view for the near term and a monthly view beyond it rather than forcing one level of detail across the whole forecast.
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Match the horizon to its purpose
There is no single horizon that suits every business. For a distinct case, the U.S. Small Business Administration’s financing guidance advises prospective borrowers to prepare a five-year outlook with more detailed quarterly or monthly projections for the first year. That funding-request horizon is not a default requirement for routine cash monitoring. See the SBA’s business-planning guidance.
Build a flat-revenue base case
Start with actual sales and explain any change
Review prior sales, separating the underlying trend from one-off events and seasonality. If growth has stopped and there is no current evidence of a change, hold the revenue base flat in the central case. New Zealand government guidance recommends using past financial data for established businesses, considering obstacles and benefits that may affect income, and avoiding overly optimistic estimates. Business Victoria likewise recommends reviewing prior-year sales and whether they rose, fell, or stayed level. See Business Victoria’s forecasting guidance.
Change the assumption only when there is a reason you can identify, such as renewal data, signed contracts, seasonality, or a known price or marketing change. Keep speculative opportunities out of committed receipts: a forecast should show what the evidence supports, not what the business needs to happen.
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Alongside the flat-sales base case, model a downside case and an upside case. For example, the downside might include slower customer payments, a lost account, or a further sales decline. An upside case should have an identifiable driver, rather than a general expectation of recovery. Comparing scenarios makes the effect of uncertain assumptions clear without presenting any one outcome as certain.
Translate sales into expected cash receipts
Forecast cash when it is expected to reach the bank, not when a sale is made or an invoice is issued. The British Business Bank puts it plainly: “Remember though, this is about when the cash is actually in your bank account.” Use payment terms and your experience of actual collection and bank-clearance timing to place each receipt in the appropriate period. Read the British Business Bank’s four-step cash-flow guide.
Separate expected collections from existing receivables and other cash sources from receipts tied to new sales. Depending on the business, other inflows may include grants, tax rebates, asset sales, owner contributions, royalties, franchise fees, or licence fees. Treat borrowing, owner funding, and asset sales as distinct sources of cash, not recurring operating revenue. See the Australian government’s cash-flow statement guidance.
Include every material payment and its due date
Use recent bills and payment records, then adjust for known changes. Put each outflow in the period it is expected to be paid, not simply the month it is incurred. Include items that are easy to overlook:
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- Suppliers, inventory, and other purchases
- Wages and payroll-related payments
- Rent, utilities, and accountant fees
- Taxes and loan principal or interest payments, as applicable
- Marketing commitments and capital purchases
- Owner payments or distributions where relevant
- Annual renewals, registrations, subscriptions, and one-off fees
Keep spending assumptions consistent with flat sales. If fewer units are expected to sell, do not leave variable purchasing costs at a growth-case level. Do not assume fixed costs will fall unless a specific action or contractual change supports that reduction. Timing matters: fortnightly payroll can fall three times in some months, while annual renewals can produce a large, irregular outflow.
Calculate the balance and locate the pressure point
For each period, use this calculation:
Closing cash = opening cash + cash received − cash paid.
Begin with the actual cash balance. Carry each period’s closing balance forward as the next period’s opening balance. This rolling structure is reflected in Australian government guidance on cash-flow statements and Business Victoria’s forecasting guidance.
Compare projected cash with the minimum operating buffer your business needs and the amounts due. Mark the first period in which cash falls below that level, then identify which receipt, payment, or assumption causes the gap. A positive accounting profit does not establish that cash will be available on a particular due date; the forecast is designed to reveal that timing.
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A forecast surfaces decision points; it does not guarantee a solution. Depending on the cause and your circumstances, areas to evaluate include collecting overdue receivables sooner, reviewing stock and supplier timing, deferring discretionary spending, adjusting purchase timing, or discussing financing options early. It can also help you plan for tax payments and other obligations. These are options to assess, not personalized financial advice.
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Update the forecast against actual cash
At least as often as each forecast period closes, compare forecast receipts and payments with actual bank activity. For every material variance, record what happened—such as a late payment, missed sale, unexpected bill, new hire, cost increase, or timing shift—and revise the periods ahead. Business Victoria calls reviewing estimates against actual flows the most important step in its forecasting process.
A spreadsheet or accounting package can hold the forecast. A spreadsheet makes assumptions and formulas visible; an accounting package may suit a team that already uses it to review transactions. Official guidance recognizes both formats, but no particular product is established as necessary. Free templates are available from Business Victoria and in the Australian government’s cash-flow statement guidance. Replace any generic or sample assumptions with your own opening balance, expected receipts, bills, and payment dates.
Choose a setup you can maintain
| Choice | Useful when | Trade-off to consider |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly or monthly periods | Weekly detail helps expose near-term payment timing; monthly periods can be easier for a longer operating plan. | Choose based on how urgent and variable cash movements are, and how much detail the team can keep current. |
| Single case or scenarios | A single case is simpler; a flat-revenue base plus downside and evidence-based upside cases makes uncertainty visible. | More scenarios require more assumptions to maintain and review. |
| Spreadsheet or accounting package | Either can hold a forecast; formulas can recalculate projections when inputs change. | Consider setup effort, bank-transaction reconciliation, visibility of assumptions, collaboration, and review needs. No specific software has been tested or endorsed here. |
| Official free template or other learning resource | Official templates provide a starting structure without requiring a paid resource. | Customization and instructions differ; any template still needs your actual balances, receipts, bills, and dates. |
Because the cited guidance comes from Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and the United Kingdom, check local tax treatment, reporting rules, financing terms, and obligations with a suitably qualified adviser in your jurisdiction.
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