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What China exposure actually includes
Start by defining the exposure you are trying to measure. Two companies can report the same percentage of revenue from China while facing very different risks: one may sell finished products through many customers, while another may depend on a single Chinese buyer, a local factory, or components that cannot be replaced quickly.
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| Exposure channel | What to examine | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Direct commercial | Revenue from customers in China, customer location definitions, products sold, end markets and sales trends | Shows demand and sales that could be affected by weaker Chinese orders, restrictions or customer losses |
| Operational | Factories, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test sites, suppliers, components, materials, logistics and local subsidiaries | A company can have modest China sales but still rely on production or inputs that pass through China or nearby hubs |
| Regulatory | Export controls, licenses, restricted entities and end uses, tariffs, sanctions and possible government countermeasures | Rules can determine which products may be shipped, to whom, and under what conditions |
| Regional | Taiwan-linked suppliers, foundries, materials, transport routes and other East Asian dependencies | Regional disruption can affect supply, costs or sales even when direct China revenue is small |
Keep measured facts separate from qualitative risk statements. A filing that says a disruption could affect operations identifies a possible outcome; it does not establish that the disruption has happened or assign a probability to it.
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Create one row for each technology company and at least these columns:
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- Direct China-related revenue or customer sales, with the issuer’s definition
- Fiscal period and filing date
- Revenue trend across several periods
- Largest-customer share and any named customer concentration
- Manufacturing, supplier, component, logistics and local-operation dependencies
- Products, customers or end uses affected by export controls or licensing
- Exposure to tariffs, sanctions and possible countermeasures
- Taiwan or other regional supply-chain links
- Your portfolio position weight
- Evidence quality: reported percentage, named dependency, or conditional risk disclosure
This structure prevents a single percentage from hiding a different vulnerability. Mark information as “not disclosed” when an issuer does not provide a number; do not convert an absence of disclosure into a zero.
Step 1: Read the right parts of each filing
Use the latest annual report first, then check any newer quarterly report for changes. Work through the filing in a consistent order:
- Business section: identify products, end markets, sales channels and the countries or regions that matter to demand.
- Geographic-revenue note: record the exact basis of the geography—customer location, shipping destination, revenue origin or asset location.
- Customer-concentration note: capture any customer that represents a material share of consolidated revenue and whether the customer is identified.
- Supply-chain description: list manufacturing sites, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test facilities, key suppliers, materials and logistics routes.
- Risk factors and management discussion: extract references to export controls, licenses, restricted entities, tariffs, sanctions, countermeasures and China-Taiwan conditions.
- Quarterly update: check whether a new rule, license decision, customer change or facility event alters the annual-report picture.
Write the period beside every number. “China revenue” without a fiscal year and definition is not comparable evidence.
Step 2: Measure direct China business without misreading geography
Geographic revenue is useful only when you know what the issuer counted. Customer location may differ from shipment destination, and neither necessarily identifies where an asset or production step is located. Read the note before putting a percentage in a comparison table.
KLA’s dated customer-revenue example
KLA Corporation’s fiscal 2026 Form 10-K reports revenue from products and services to customers in China of 30% in fiscal 2026, compared with 33% in fiscal 2025 and 43% in fiscal 2024. These are issuer-specific observations for the stated fiscal periods, not a semiconductor-sector benchmark.
| Fiscal period | Revenue from products and services to customers in China | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2026 | 30% | Latest figure in the cited KLA filing |
| Fiscal 2025 | 33% | Prior-period comparison |
| Fiscal 2024 | 43% | Earlier comparison point |
The decline from 43% to 30% does not, by itself, prove that KLA’s overall China dependence fell. Sales mix, customer timing, product restrictions, and other factors can change a revenue share while factories, suppliers or controlled products remain exposed. KLA also says future revenue may decline as a result of current and future Commerce rules. Treat that as a company disclosure about a possible effect, not as a forecast of a particular percentage.
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Questions to ask about every geographic figure
- Does “China” include mainland China only, or a broader reporting region?
- Is the percentage based on the customer’s location, the shipping destination, or another measure?
- Is it a share of total revenue, product revenue, service revenue, or a segment?
- Does the period cover a fiscal year that differs from the calendar year?
- Is the trend driven by volume, pricing, acquisitions, customer mix or restrictions?
Step 3: Keep international revenue and customer concentration separate
International sales are not synonymous with China sales, and a company’s largest customer may be anywhere. Axcelis Technologies illustrates both distinctions.
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| Axcelis measure | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International revenue as a share of total revenue | 83.7% | 85.8% | 84.1% | Revenue outside the United States; not a China-specific measure |
| One customer as a share of consolidated revenue | 11.0% | Not stated | Not stated | Customer concentration; the cited figure is not identified as China-specific |
Axcelis separately discusses China customer and export-control risks. Therefore, do not label 83.7% international revenue as 83.7% China exposure, and do not assume the 11.0% customer represents China. Record each fact in its own column.
Distinguish broad demand from concentrated demand
A broad China market can create many smaller exposures, while one large customer can create a sharp revenue shock even if total China sales are not disclosed. For each issuer, ask:
- How many customers or distributors generate the reported China sales?
- Does one customer exceed a materiality threshold disclosed by the issuer?
- Are products sold to commercial buyers, government-linked entities, foundries or equipment manufacturers?
- Could a license denial affect one product line or a wider customer group?
Step 4: Map manufacturing, suppliers and components
Read beyond revenue tables. Trace where the company makes, tests, stores and moves products, and which inputs must come from particular suppliers or regions.
Manufacturing and production nodes
Record owned plants, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test locations, warehouses and repair facilities. Then ask whether production can move, how many qualified alternatives exist, and whether moving would require customer requalification, new equipment or regulatory approval. The filing may not quantify the time or cost; mark those items as unknown rather than estimating them.
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Inputs and logistics
List critical integrated circuits, substrates, displays, sensors, chemicals, rare materials, packaging and transport routes. A company may buy an input from a non-Chinese supplier that still has upstream production in China or Taiwan. Look for single-source language, long lead times and statements that substitutions are difficult.
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AMD warns that controls can affect manufacturing, testing and warehousing as well as exports to customers. Cisco discusses possible restrictions affecting its products, suppliers, integrated circuits and component inputs. These are conditional issuer risk disclosures, not evidence that a disruption has already occurred.
Local operations
Include subsidiaries, sales offices, service teams, data infrastructure and local partnerships. A rule affecting operations or transactions in China can create costs even if the company’s reported China revenue is limited.
Step 5: Identify the regulatory channels that can change exposure quickly
Policy sensitivity is company-specific and time-sensitive. Review the filing date and current disclosures for:
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- Export controls covering products, performance thresholds, destinations or end uses
- License requirements and whether licenses are routinely available, uncertain or denied
- Restricted entities and customer-screening obligations
- Tariffs, sanctions and customs rules
- Possible Chinese or other government countermeasures
- Conflicting legal obligations across jurisdictions
Ask whether a rule affects only sales to China or also manufacturing, testing, warehousing, service, financing and sales to customers elsewhere. A product may be assembled outside China yet remain subject to controls because of its technology, end use or customer.
AMD’s warning about conflicting measures
In its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2026, Advanced Micro Devices stated:
“To the extent our compliance with U.S. export controls and other restrictions causes us or our affiliates to become subject to these or similar Chinese countermeasures, we could face conflicting legal obligations, restrictions on our operations and transactions in China, supply chain disruption, and reputational harm, any of which could materially adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition.”
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This is AMD’s risk statement, not an independent estimate of the probability of countermeasures. Use it to identify channels to investigate: legal conflicts, operations, transactions, supply chains and reputation.
Build a product-and-customer policy map
- List products that the issuer says are controlled or potentially controlled.
- Match those products to customer types and end uses.
- Record required licenses, exclusions and the issuer’s description of uncertainty.
- Check whether alternative products or markets exist, and whether the filing says they are commercially viable.
- Note the date of the rule or disclosure so an older assessment is not mistaken for a current one.
Step 6: Include Taiwan and other regional dependencies
Direct China sales do not capture every regional risk. Trace suppliers, foundries, materials, assembly sites and shipping routes involving Taiwan and other East Asian hubs. Look for dependencies shared by multiple holdings.
Cisco’s 2026 annual report conditionally warns that deterioration in China-Taiwan relations could affect sales, sourcing, suppliers and component costs. That disclosure should prompt scenario mapping, not a prediction of conflict. Record which products would be affected, whether alternatives exist and how many portfolio companies rely on the same node.
A company can therefore have:
- Low disclosed China revenue but high Taiwan-linked manufacturing dependence
- High China revenue but diversified production and customers
- Both high direct sales and high regional supply dependence
- Little direct or operational exposure but significant regulatory exposure through controlled technology
Step 7: Compare companies on consistent axes
When comparing holdings, use the same period and definitions wherever possible. A practical comparison matrix is:
| Axis | Evidence to place in the row | Comparison question |
|---|---|---|
| Direct China revenue | Percentage, dollar amount if disclosed, definition and trend | Are the figures measured on the same basis? |
| Customer and end-market concentration | Largest-customer share, named customers, affected end uses | Is exposure broad or dependent on a few contracts? |
| Manufacturing and suppliers | Sites, foundries, contract manufacturers, components and alternatives | Can production or inputs be switched? |
| Export-control sensitivity | Products, customers, licenses and restricted end uses | Would rules affect sales, operations or both? |
| Taiwan and regional links | Suppliers, foundries, materials and logistics routes | Do several holdings share one regional dependency? |
There is no established, comparable cross-sector statistic that produces one universal China-exposure score. If you create an internal rating, label it as your framework, show the evidence behind each component and do not present it as a market-standard measure.
Step 8: Aggregate exposure across the portfolio
Use actual position weights rather than treating every holding as equal. For a comparable direct-revenue measure, calculate:
Weighted direct China exposure = sum of (portfolio weight × issuer's China-revenue share)
Apply that formula only when the issuer definitions and periods are sufficiently comparable. Do not combine KLA’s customer-location measure with an issuer’s shipment-location measure without flagging the difference.
Maintain separate portfolio summaries for:
- Weighted direct China revenue
- Customer concentration affecting multiple holdings
- Shared suppliers, foundries, manufacturing regions and logistics nodes
- Holdings with products or customers subject to similar export controls
- Taiwan-linked dependencies
Then run common-event checks. For example, identify every holding that would be affected by a restriction on a particular product category, a shared foundry, a shipping route or a customer region. Several companies can each show modest China revenue and still fall together because they depend on the same supplier or policy channel.
Use scenarios instead of a false precision score
Write a short impact statement for each shared vulnerability:
- Event: the rule, supplier interruption or regional condition you are testing
- First-order effect: lost sales, delayed inputs, higher costs or blocked shipments
- Second-order effect: customer delays, redesigns, inventory changes or reputational damage
- Portfolio overlap: the positions exposed through the same channel
- Mitigants: alternative suppliers, production sites, products or markets documented by the issuers
This makes uncertainty visible without claiming that a particular event will occur.
How to maintain the analysis
China exposure changes as sales mix, facilities, customers and rules change. Refresh the sheet after each annual report, relevant quarterly filing, material company announcement or significant regulatory change.
- Archive the previous figure with its fiscal period and definition.
- Enter the new figure beside it rather than overwriting history.
- Record whether a change reflects sales, customer mix, restrictions, acquisitions or another stated cause.
- Recheck shared suppliers and manufacturing nodes when a company changes its sourcing language.
- Update portfolio weights before calculating aggregate exposure.
Historical percentages describe the period reported; they do not establish current-period exposure until a later filing confirms it.
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| Mistake | Correction |
|---|---|
| Treating China revenue as the whole risk | Add operational, regulatory and regional columns |
| Calling international revenue China revenue | Use the issuer’s geographic definition; Axcelis’s international percentages are outside-U.S. sales, not China sales |
| Comparing percentages with different bases | Record customer location, shipment destination, asset location and fiscal period |
| Assuming a lower China share means lower supply dependence | Recheck factories, suppliers, components and logistics separately |
| Reading a risk factor as a forecast | Describe it as a possible outcome unless the issuer reports an actual event |
| Ignoring customer concentration | Capture the largest-customer percentage and whether it is China-specific |
| Using equal company weights | Apply current portfolio position weights |
| Keeping one undated score | Attach every figure and policy statement to its filing date and period |
A practical review checklist
- Have you defined direct, operational, regulatory and regional exposure separately?
- Did you read the geographic-revenue note instead of relying on a headline percentage?
- Did you preserve the fiscal period and filing date for every number?
- Did you distinguish China revenue, total international revenue and customer concentration?
- Did you list manufacturing, suppliers, components, logistics and local operations?
- Did you identify products, customers and end uses affected by controls or licenses?
- Did you inspect possible tariffs, sanctions and countermeasures?
- Did you map Taiwan and other regional dependencies?
- Did you look for shared suppliers, foundries and policy channels across holdings?
- Did you apply actual position weights and avoid an unsupported universal score?
- Did you schedule a refresh after new filings or material policy changes?
What a finished exposure map should show
Your final worksheet should let you answer, for every holding, five separate questions: How much reported business depends on Chinese customers? Which operations or inputs depend on China or nearby regional hubs? Which products or transactions may require licenses? Which customers or suppliers create concentration? Which other portfolio holdings would be affected by the same event?
That map is more decision-useful than a single country percentage because it preserves definitions, dates, dependencies and uncertainty. It also shows where diversification is real and where several apparently different stocks share one underlying vulnerability.
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